Recession, the definition

[AllieBaba]

Since apparently nobody here knows what it means:

"An extended decline in general business activity, typically two consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product."

recession - Definitions from Dictionary.com

NOW....have we had two consecutive quarters of FALLING REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT???

Why no, we haven't. I guess we aren't in a recession.

 

[JeffWartman]

Since apparently nobody here knows what it means:

"An extended decline in general business activity, typically two consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product."

recession - Definitions from Dictionary.com

NOW....have we had two consecutive quarters of FALLING REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT???

Why no, we haven't. I guess we aren't in a recession.

One of the issues with the business cycle is that you really do not know what is happening in the present. The only way to accurately describe economic periods is by looking back on them. We could very well be in a recession, the problem is that we really can't know until we're already out of it. That's why fiscal policy really doesn't work.

 

[Chris]

NOVATO, Calif., Aug 01, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- U.S. new home prices are down 13%, new home sales have reduced by 39% and property listings are down 22% since the real estate market's historic peak set in March of 2007. This marks the worst real estate bear market since 1970.

Worst Residential Real Estate Market Since Man First Walked on the Moon! - MarketWatch

 

[Chris]

U.S. Vehicle Sales Fall 13.2% Amid High Gas Prices and Tight Credit

By NICK BUNKLEY
Published: August 2, 2008
Vehicle sales in the United States fell last month to their lowest level in 16 years, as consumers continued to shun large trucks because of high gas prices, and tight credit kept less creditworthy customers off lots.
Sam VarnHagen/Ford Motor, via Associated Press
The automaker reported that sales in the United States fell 15 percent in July from a year ago.

Sales were down 13.2 percent, at a time when the companies had expected to begin seeing an improvement.

Instead, the five largest automakers each reported sales declines on Friday. Sales fell 26.1 percent at General Motors, the largest car company, while Chrysler, which used to be the third-largest, reported a 28.8 percent decline and came within a few thousand sales of falling to sixth place. The Ford Motor Company posted a 14.7 percent decline.

Together, the three Detroit automakers accounted for just 42.7 percent of the vehicle market last month, selling about 150,000 fewer vehicles than they had a year earlier.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/02/business/02auto.html?ref=automobiles

 

[Chris]

U.S. unemployment rate hits 4-year high
Sam Zuckerman, Chronicle Staff Writer

Saturday, August 2, 2008

(08-01) 13:51 PDT SAN FRANCISCO -- The nation's job market contracted in July and unemployment rose to a four-year high as employers across a broad swath of industries hunkered down.

Payrolls outside the farm sector dipped by 51,000, while the jobless rate rose to 5.7 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from June, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The economy has lost jobs every month this year, with payrolls down by 463,000 since December. The unemployment rate hasn't been this high since March 2004.

The erosion of jobs reflects a range of economic problems, including the collapse of the housing market, a consumer pullback and abysmal business conditions in such industries as banking and motor vehicles. For the most part, job cuts have been not major but piecemeal.

"It's broad-based weakness, not huge declines anywhere, but very widely spread," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist for the Massachusetts consulting firm Global Insight. "It's a slow-drop deterioration, not catastrophic, but every month it gets worse."

U.S. unemployment rate hits 4-year high

 

[Chris]

463,000 jobs lost since December?

 

[RetiredGySgt]

463,000 jobs lost since December?

Full employment is 6 percent unemployment, we are at 5.7 percent.

As for houses they were artificially to high they had to adjust or crash. Thats what happens when stuff is speculated to ignorant amounts.

 

[Chris]

Full employment is 6 percent unemployment, we are at 5.7 percent.

As for houses they were artificially to high they had to adjust or crash. Thats what happens when stuff is speculated to ignorant amounts.

Full employment?

Not for those 463,000 people.

 

[Charles_Main]

Kirk, you will never employ everyone. 6% has long been considered Full employment, because it is impractical to expect much better than that. You are old enough to remember the sky high unemployment levels of the 70's are you not? You want to see bad unemployment, try 11%.

 

[mattskramer]

Since apparently nobody here knows what it means:

"An extended decline in general business activity, typically two consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product."

recession - Definitions from Dictionary.com

NOW....have we had two consecutive quarters of FALLING REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT???

Why no, we haven't. I guess we aren't in a recession.

Recession - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle. A common rule of thumb is that a recession occurs when real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is negative for two or more consecutive quarters. In the USA, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines it more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales

 

[Chris]

Kirk, you will never employ everyone. 6% has long been considered Full employment, because it is impractical to expect much better than that. You are old enough to remember the sky high unemployment levels of the 70's are you not? You want to see bad unemployment, try 11%.

Be patient, we'll be there soon.

I feel so sorry for the next president.

But I guess is FDR could do it......

 

[JeffWartman]

Kirk, you will never employ everyone. 6% has long been considered Full employment, because it is impractical to expect much better than that. You are old enough to remember the sky high unemployment levels of the 70's are you not? You want to see bad unemployment, try 11%.

You're showing you're ignorant of the way unemployment is measured.

The people you speak of already aren't counted in unemployment. After you've been unemployed for a certain amount of time, you're no longer measured in the unemployment figures.

There are many factors that affect unemployment. People refusing to look for jobs, technology workers who work on contact and change jobs frequently and seasonal employees are a few factors which affect the numbers, and it's remedied by the fact that the government already does not consider these cases when measuring unemployment. If you've been looking for a job for more than six months, you are not counted in the unemployment figures, for instance.

But, to assume that 6% is magically full employment is laughably uneducated.

 

[sealybobo]

You're showing you're ignorant of the way unemployment is measured.

The people you speak of already aren't counted in unemployment. After you've been unemployed for a certain amount of time, you're no longer measured in the unemployment figures.

There are many factors that affect unemployment. People refusing to look for jobs, technology workers who work on contact and change jobs frequently and seasonal employees are a few factors which affect the numbers, and it's remedied by the fact that the government already does not consider these cases when measuring unemployment. If you've been looking for a job for more than six months, you are not counted in the unemployment figures, for instance.

But, to assume that 6% is magically full employment is laughably uneducated.

I always talk about people who run out of unemp. I didn't even think about the people that lose their jobs and don't even qualify to get it.

ps. i'm watching cnn. they're interviewing young voters. the ppl you are debating with will say they are uneducated. they seem pretty sharp to me. nice running into you.

 

[busara]

Since apparently nobody here knows what it means:

"An extended decline in general business activity, typically two consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product."

recession - Definitions from Dictionary.com

NOW....have we had two consecutive quarters of FALLING REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT???

Why no, we haven't. I guess we aren't in a recession.

that is merely one definiton of a recession.

 

[editec]

If the OFFICIAL DEFINITION of recession is meaningless to most of us, if it does not describe the state of affairs on Maine Street, what good is it?

No the macroeconomy of corporate America is not in a recession.

The people of the USA, the working people's microeconomies (their home economics, if you will) are and have been in a recession for some time now.

 

[Zoomie1980]

If the OFFICIAL DEFINITION of recession is meaningless to most of us, if it does not describe the state of affairs on Maine Street, what good is it?

No the macroeconomy of corporate America is not in a recession.

The people of the USA, the working people's microeconomies (their home economics, if you will) are and have been in a recession for some time now.

So what? Who cares? If you have skills you are NEVER in a recession. If you depend on some company to provide a place to drive screws, wrap things up, pack things, load things, unload things, then you are a pawn. Those with saleable skills are never pawns. And obtaining skills is an individual thing. If you choose to not obtain skills then too bad. You get to suck hind tit....

 

[editec]

So what? Who cares? If you have skills you are NEVER in a recession. If you depend on some company to provide a place to drive screws, wrap things up, pack things, load things, unload things, then you are a pawn. Those with saleable skills are never pawns. And obtaining skills is an individual thing. If you choose to not obtain skills then too bad. You get to suck hind tit....

We have a consumer dirven economy.

If the majority of consumers have to cut back on consuming, guess what happens.

Or better still don't guess, look around at the economic indicators like the stock market, bond market, personal and business bankruptsies, banks going belly up, foreclosures, decline in Real estate prices and so forth.

So what, you ask?

Well...that's what.

 

[Zoomie1980]

We have a consumer dirven economy.

If the majority of consumers have to cut back on consuming, guess what happens.

Or better still don't guess, look around at the economic indicators like the stock market, bond market, personal and business bankruptsies, banks going belly up, foreclosures, decline in Real estate prices and so forth.

So what, you ask?

Well...that's what.

Yea, so what? All of that is a GOOD thing. We are purging our economy of its excesses and there is always pain in that.

 

[Toro]

Since apparently nobody here knows what it means:

"An extended decline in general business activity, typically two consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product."

recession - Definitions from Dictionary.com

NOW....have we had two consecutive quarters of FALLING REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT???

Why no, we haven't. I guess we aren't in a recession.

This is wrong.

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For more information, see the latest announcement on how the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee chooses turning points in the Economy and its latest memo, dated 07/17/03.

Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

Determination of a recession is done many months after it begins.

From everything I have seen, the economy is in a recession.

 

[Zoomie1980]

This is wrong.



Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

Determination of a recession is done many months after it begins.

From everything I have seen, the economy is in a recession.

From my experience by the time a critical mass of economists officially declare a recession we are already either actually out of it or have already long the turned the corner.....