Real Clear Politics presidential polling is far from real clear

[Conservative]

People can post all the polls and models they want they are just snapshots of the moment.

That's not true of models in general. Nate Silver's model separately predicts how the election would turn out if held to today and how it will turn out in November. He uses economic variables to predict how people's voting preference will change. And a prediction market like Intrade is designed to predict the probability of a future event, rather than reflect a current reality. Both models and markets are imperfect of course, but if done properly they do have predictive power.

You been talking to Sheldon again?

 

[Lakhota]

I'm no more of a polling expert than anyone else on this board, but here's my take:

1. Polls are "mostly" irrelevant at this point, but Obama is doing "okay" in the polls so far.

2. Obama is a masterful campaigner, and he has yet to go into full campaign mode.

3. I believe the debates will be very important to voters' final decisions.

4. Obama has kept America safe - so far.

5. IF voters are honest with themselves about Obama's overall performance, compared to what he inherited and Congressional obstruction, I believe he'll be reelected. He has earned it, IMO.

 

[Avatar4321]

National polls don't matter. Its the state to state ones that do. The swing states are the answer. Look at those polls. That will tell you who is doing better or if its tied.

For once I agree with you. The fact that, in recent polls, Romney is ahead in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin is not a good sign for the President.

But polls now arent going to reflect what people think in November anyway.

True and those are not the only states in play. The economy is getting better here in ohio.if it keeps up ohio could swing obama.

It's possible. I dont think it's likely regardless. But then Im not a seer. At least not that i know of.

 

[buckeye45_73]

I'm no more of a polling expert than anyone else on this board, but here's my take:

1. Polls are "mostly" irrelevant at this point, but Obama is doing "okay" in the polls so far.

2. Obama is a masterful campaigner, and he has yet to go into full campaign mode.

3. I believe the debates will be very important to voters' final decisions.

4. Obama has kept America safe - so far.

5. IF voters are honest with themselves about Obama's overall performance, compared to what he inherited and Congressional obstruction, I believe he'll be reelected. He has earned it, IMO.

Actually if they thought about it, they would throw up in disgust.

 

[blackhawk]

People can post all the polls and models they want they are just snapshots of the moment.

That's not true of models in general. Nate Silver's model separately predicts how the election would turn out if held to today and how it will turn out in November. He uses economic variables to predict how people's voting preference will change. And a prediction market like Intrade is designed to predict the probability of a future event, rather than reflect a current reality. Both models and markets are imperfect of course, but if done properly they do have predictive power.

This is all fun message board stuff but trying to predicate now what all happen in November is a bit silly. And I'm pretty sure no poll or model takes into account the unexpected I doubt in 2008 anyone put a major economic meltdown in their model.

 

[Lakhota]

I'm no more of a polling expert than anyone else on this board, but here's my take:

1. Polls are "mostly" irrelevant at this point, but Obama is doing "okay" in the polls so far.

2. Obama is a masterful campaigner, and he has yet to go into full campaign mode.

3. I believe the debates will be very important to voters' final decisions.

4. Obama has kept America safe - so far.

5. IF voters are honest with themselves about Obama's overall performance, compared to what he inherited and Congressional obstruction, I believe he'll be reelected. He has earned it, IMO.

Actually if they thought about it, they would throw up in disgust.

Only the Gumps...

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Nate Silver's model gives Obama a 61% chance of victory (and an 80% chance if the election were held today) and Intrade gives about a 54% chance of Democratic victory. These are slight margins, not really distinguishable from a coin flip in practice (can anyone really tell whether 40% or 60% was a more accurate prediction even with the benefit of hindsight?) but they do give the edge to Obama. Is there a single model that's showing a Romney edge?

Nate Silver is a hack. If the election were held today, Romney would win.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

I'm no more of a polling expert than anyone else on this board, but here's my take:

1. Polls are "mostly" irrelevant at this point, but Obama is doing "okay" in the polls so far.

2. Obama is a masterful campaigner, and he has yet to go into full campaign mode.

3. I believe the debates will be very important to voters' final decisions.

4. Obama has kept America safe - so far.

5. IF voters are honest with themselves about Obama's overall performance, compared to what he inherited and Congressional obstruction, I believe he'll be reelected. He has earned it, IMO.

1. Polls are very relevant; at least the accurate ones. Politicians select campaigning and advertising based on the polls.

2. Obama can't campaign on hope and change. He proved to be a hopeless failure. And he can't campaign on Bush. The state of the nation is his doing.

3. The debates will be the final factor. It'll probably be what takes Romney from about a 3 or 4 point win to a total 10 plus point blowout when Romney puts the amateur in his place.

4. Bush kept America safe after 9/11. What Obama has done is presided over a TSA that molests women and children (and men). He has also turned this nation into a police state even more. Sorry bro, but I don't want to live in commie land.

5. Obama has taken the debt to a ridiculous place. He has presided over waste. And he has greatly stifled the inevitable recovery. Also, families have 40 percent less money according to Obama's own numbers. And he passed Obamacare which will be considered unconstitutional and it's unsustainable besides being against our liberties. No thank you to Obama's death panels bro. What was that you said about earning it?

 

[Lakhota]

I'm no more of a polling expert than anyone else on this board, but here's my take:

1. Polls are "mostly" irrelevant at this point, but Obama is doing "okay" in the polls so far.

2. Obama is a masterful campaigner, and he has yet to go into full campaign mode.

3. I believe the debates will be very important to voters' final decisions.

4. Obama has kept America safe - so far.

5. IF voters are honest with themselves about Obama's overall performance, compared to what he inherited and Congressional obstruction, I believe he'll be reelected. He has earned it, IMO.

1. Polls are very relevant; at least the accurate ones. Politicians select campaigning and advertising based on the polls.

2. Obama can't campaign on hope and change. He proved to be a hopeless failure. And he can't campaign on Bush. The state of the nation is his doing.

3. The debates will be the final factor. It'll probably be what takes Romney from about a 3 or 4 point win to a total 10 plus point blowout when Romney puts the amateur in his place.

4. Bush kept America safe after 9/11. What Obama has done is presided over a TSA that molests women and children (and men). He has also turned this nation into a police state even more. Sorry bro, but I don't want to live in commie land.

5. Obama has taken the debt to a ridiculous place. He has presided over waste. And he has greatly stifled the inevitable recovery. Also, families have 40 percent less money according to Obama's own numbers. And he passed Obamacare which will be considered unconstitutional and it's unsustainable besides being against our liberties. No thank you to Obama's death panels bro. What was that you said about earning it?

Fine, so how much of what you said is bullshit and how much is fact?

 

[auditor0007]

Honestly, I don't know what the fuss is about. Because the polls are fairly close, it basically means nothing at all. We haven't even gotten into the debates yet, and there is just way too much time before the election. Way too many things could happen that could swing the election one way or the other. No matter what, Romney has a tougher road to 270, simply because Obama is starting with more states that are pretty certain to go his way. That does not mean that there can't be a big shift toward Romney; I just don't see it happening, but again, we have a long way to go.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

I'm no more of a polling expert than anyone else on this board, but here's my take:

1. Polls are "mostly" irrelevant at this point, but Obama is doing "okay" in the polls so far.

2. Obama is a masterful campaigner, and he has yet to go into full campaign mode.

3. I believe the debates will be very important to voters' final decisions.

4. Obama has kept America safe - so far.

5. IF voters are honest with themselves about Obama's overall performance, compared to what he inherited and Congressional obstruction, I believe he'll be reelected. He has earned it, IMO.

1. Polls are very relevant; at least the accurate ones. Politicians select campaigning and advertising based on the polls.

2. Obama can't campaign on hope and change. He proved to be a hopeless failure. And he can't campaign on Bush. The state of the nation is his doing.

3. The debates will be the final factor. It'll probably be what takes Romney from about a 3 or 4 point win to a total 10 plus point blowout when Romney puts the amateur in his place.

4. Bush kept America safe after 9/11. What Obama has done is presided over a TSA that molests women and children (and men). He has also turned this nation into a police state even more. Sorry bro, but I don't want to live in commie land.

5. Obama has taken the debt to a ridiculous place. He has presided over waste. And he has greatly stifled the inevitable recovery. Also, families have 40 percent less money according to Obama's own numbers. And he passed Obamacare which will be considered unconstitutional and it's unsustainable besides being against our liberties. No thank you to Obama's death panels bro. What was that you said about earning it?

Fine, so how much of what you said is bullshit and how much is fact?

You spouted some nice platitudes and I gave you reality. Now you're coming back at me with more nonsense b/c you don't give a shit about facing reality.

 

[Lakhota]

1. Polls are very relevant; at least the accurate ones. Politicians select campaigning and advertising based on the polls.

2. Obama can't campaign on hope and change. He proved to be a hopeless failure. And he can't campaign on Bush. The state of the nation is his doing.

3. The debates will be the final factor. It'll probably be what takes Romney from about a 3 or 4 point win to a total 10 plus point blowout when Romney puts the amateur in his place.

4. Bush kept America safe after 9/11. What Obama has done is presided over a TSA that molests women and children (and men). He has also turned this nation into a police state even more. Sorry bro, but I don't want to live in commie land.

5. Obama has taken the debt to a ridiculous place. He has presided over waste. And he has greatly stifled the inevitable recovery. Also, families have 40 percent less money according to Obama's own numbers. And he passed Obamacare which will be considered unconstitutional and it's unsustainable besides being against our liberties. No thank you to Obama's death panels bro. What was that you said about earning it?

Fine, so how much of what you said is bullshit and how much is fact?

You spouted some nice platitudes and I gave you reality. Now you're coming back at me with more nonsense b/c you don't give a shit about facing reality.

Much of what you said is typical distorted wingnut bullshit. If you believe that - okay...

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Fine, so how much of what you said is bullshit and how much is fact?

You spouted some nice platitudes and I gave you reality. Now you're coming back at me with more nonsense b/c you don't give a shit about facing reality.

Much of what you said is typical distorted wingnut bullshit. If you believe that - okay...

I got news for you brah. You are full fledged libtard. You can't handle the truth. You'll always glorify your guys and blame conservatives no matter what.

 

[Lakhota]

You spouted some nice platitudes and I gave you reality. Now you're coming back at me with more nonsense b/c you don't give a shit about facing reality.

Much of what you said is typical distorted wingnut bullshit. If you believe that - okay...

I got news for you brah. You are full fledged libtard. You can't handle the truth. You'll always glorify your guys and blame conservatives no matter what.

You're like many wingnuts - You live in an alternate reality. The scary thing is that you probably believe all that crazy shit you post. Facts are irrelevant to a closed mind.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Much of what you said is typical distorted wingnut bullshit. If you believe that - okay...

I got news for you brah. You are full fledged libtard. You can't handle the truth. You'll always glorify your guys and blame conservatives no matter what.

You're like many wingnuts - You live in an alternate reality. The scary thing is that you probably believe all that crazy shit you post. Facts are irrelevant to a closed mind.

Seriously. What you just said is exactly what applies to you. You've probably been told that verbatim so many times that you think it's just a good strategy to beat people to the punch LMAO.

 

[Lakhota]

You should see a doctor about that clap...

I was out on the porch smoking a cigarette a while ago, and I saw a pissant that had more credibility than you. You're really stupid. Funny, but really stupid. Keep up the good work...

 

[Sarah G]

I've been seeing for probably almost two months in poll after poll that Romney is ahead in the national average. Yes, RCP has him down in the national average by 0.8 percent? That just seems like a bold faced lie.

And of course, the electoral map has shown Obama ahead by a considerable margin when it seems clear that if the election were held today that Romney would win.

Now, I know it's not necessarily an ideological error (though it could be - I don't really follow RCP closely) b/c they use static formulas accounting for various polls, averaging for a wide margin of time. However, if the formula you are using is so inept then does that really count as real clear?

Real Clear is a polling data aggregator and a Right leaning blog to boot. I thought you were a right wingnut.

It's the only polling data I look at, nothing wrong with seeing many sides to the picture.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

I've been seeing for probably almost two months in poll after poll that Romney is ahead in the national average. Yes, RCP has him down in the national average by 0.8 percent? That just seems like a bold faced lie.

And of course, the electoral map has shown Obama ahead by a considerable margin when it seems clear that if the election were held today that Romney would win.

Now, I know it's not necessarily an ideological error (though it could be - I don't really follow RCP closely) b/c they use static formulas accounting for various polls, averaging for a wide margin of time. However, if the formula you are using is so inept then does that really count as real clear?

Real Clear is a polling data aggregator and a Right leaning blog to boot. I thought you were a right wingnut.

It's the only polling data I look at, nothing wrong with seeing many sides to the picture.

LOL @ calling RCP a right leaning blog. I suppose anything that reports hard news and not propaganda is right leaning to you.

 

[Toro]

I've been seeing for probably almost two months in poll after poll that Romney is ahead in the national average. Yes, RCP has him down in the national average by 0.8 percent? That just seems like a bold faced lie.

And of course, the electoral map has shown Obama ahead by a considerable margin when it seems clear that if the election were held today that Romney would win.

Now, I know it's not necessarily an ideological error (though it could be - I don't really follow RCP closely) b/c they use static formulas accounting for various polls, averaging for a wide margin of time. However, if the formula you are using is so inept then does that really count as real clear?

I believe if you go look at RCP for the 08 election, you will see that in the final 3-7 days of the election, the RCP average was within 1% of the final election vote totals.

 

[JoeB131]

I've been seeing for probably almost two months in poll after poll that Romney is ahead in the national average. Yes, RCP has him down in the national average by 0.8 percent? That just seems like a bold faced lie.

And of course, the electoral map has shown Obama ahead by a considerable margin when it seems clear that if the election were held today that Romney would win.

Now, I know it's not necessarily an ideological error (though it could be - I don't really follow RCP closely) b/c they use static formulas accounting for various polls, averaging for a wide margin of time. However, if the formula you are using is so inept then does that really count as real clear?

Actually, RCP is a pretty Right Wing site, and they publish 4 right wing articles to every left wing article.

In fact, the only pollster who has Romney having any kind of sustained lead against Obama is Liar Rassmussen. Every other poll gives Obama some kind of edge.