I. Executive Summary
In October 2013, OIG received information alleging that management in the U.S. Census Bureau’s Philadelphia Regional Office instructed staff to falsify survey responses on the AHS and the CPS. Following this complaint, additional allegations were presented in various media publications, which reported widespread data falsification in the Census Bureau’s Philadelphia Regional Office.
OIG thoroughly investigated these allegations, and found no evidence that management in the Philadelphia Regional Office instructed staff to falsify data at any time for any reason. Further, we found no evidence of systemic data falsification in the Philadelphia Regional Office. Addressing allegations raised in the media, we found no evidence that the national unemployment rate was manipulated by staff in the Philadelphia Regional Office in the months leading up to the 2012 presidential election. To accomplish this, our analysis concluded that it would have taken 78 Census Bureau Field Representatives working together, in a coordinated way, to report each and every unemployed person included in their sample as "employed" or "not in labor force" during September 2012, an effort which likely would have been detected by the Census Bureau’s quality assurance procedures. Moreover, our analysis shows that the drop in the unemployment rate at that time is consistent with other indicators, including payroll estimates by Moody’s Analytics and Automatic Data Processing (ADP).
As part of our investigation, we reviewed the Census Bureau’s processes for identifying and taking action when data falsification is uncovered, and found that the quality assurance process in place creates the potential for conflicts of interest because the same supervisors who manage staff (and could direct the falsification of survey data) are responsible for reporting instances when their staff falsifies data. To remedy this situation, we recommend that the Census Bureau implement an independent system to check for falsification, similar to the one used during the Decennial Census. We also found that the CPS procedural manuals and training materials are outdated, inconsistent, and do not discuss prohibitions and serious consequences for falsifying survey data, and we recommend that they be corrected to include information about detecting and dealing with falsification when it occurs.
Our investigation also found that Census Bureau employees suspected of falsifying data are sometimes allowed to continue working while their surveys are being examined, in part due to advice from the Department’s Office of General Counsel. To avoid repeated falsification, we recommend that the Census Bureau implement a policy that prohibits employees suspected of falsification from collecting survey data while concerns about potential falsification are being examined. We also recommend that the Census Bureau implement a mechanism to communicate instances of data falsification with agencies on whose behalf surveys are being conducted.