Ray Dalio lays it out brilliantly

[Mac1958]

Isolating the US and other countries are moving closer to the Yen. What a fn disaster.

The global bond market is on thin ice right now. If this all stopped tomorrow, it would still take a month or two to get out of danger.

Because of one guy's tariff fetish. And even if he "wins", the difference will be marginal, at a cost of our global standing.

 

[okfine]

Elmo just said today that he only expects to uncover $150Bn in 2026.

Apple loses $640 Billion and all of a sudden phones get an exemption which was announced by Customs, not by the fuckup Trump.

 

[JLW]

Dalio sees the world trying to abandon American capital -- Treasuries, corporates, equities, futures. He knows that if we lose the dollar as the reserve currency, all bets are off. And if Treasuries take a back seat, we're straight up fucked.

This is how countries can bend over for tariffs because they have to, and screw us at the same time. Is anyone really dense enough to think they're just going to take this?

This stuff is based on trust and stability. America has been the dominant country for 80 years, because we have been so comparably stable and dependable. And now? We've lost that, globally. Poof. Gone. Damn near overnight.

Mac you're absolutely right. MAGAs are too emotionally invested in Trump to see the truth. Bessent is the only one that saved this country from financial armageddon...for now.

 

[Mac1958]

Mac you're absolutely right. MAGAs are too emotionally invested in Trump to see the truth. Bessent is the only one that saved this country from financial armageddon...for now.

And the word is he's seeing what he got himself into.

 

[berg80]

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said on Sunday that he is worried that the turmoil resulting from President Donald Trump’s tariff and economic policies will threaten the global economy.

“Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”

The hedge fund billionaire said he’s more concerned about trade disruptions, mounting U.S. debt and emerging world powers bringing down the international economic and geopolitical structure that has been in place since the end of World War II.

“We are going from multilateralism, which is largely an American world order type of thing, to a unilateral world order in which there’s great conflict,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/billionaire-ray-dalio-im-worried-about-something-worse-than-a-recession.html

Dalio's warning is like those who warn about global warming. By the time the problem becomes undeniable it will be too late to do anything about it.

 

[Cellblock2429]

1. The tax cuts are NOT new, it is extending the existing tax rates and making them permanent, so the $2T deficit would not increase due to extending the tax cuts.

2. Finding $600b of fraud is easy. $375b to Podesta, $20b to the EPA, $2b to Stacy Abrams, $42b for internet not built, and the $150b DOGE savings. So that leaves $1.4T that needs to be cut.

3. Welfare needs to be cut back to a 2-year lifetime limit for the able-bodied (like in the 1990s), with a work requirement, then phased back to the states.

4. SS needs to be fixed, raise/remove the cap.

5. New taxes must be added to pay for Trump's promised tax cuts:
a. A transaction tax on all financial transactions
b. A remittance tax on all money sent out of the US to pay for the wall
c. Eliminate the Capitol Gains loop-hole, tax gains as ordinary income
d. The "break glass" option is to eliminate all tax deductions and loop-holes

6. Trump's new tariffs have been adding $2b a day, or about $600b in new revenue. So $800b needs to be raised with new taxes or the bond market and the dollar crash. Raise the top tax rate 1% or 2%? Pick a few from 5 above.

/----/ Will the Senate get the 60 votes? Will democRATs vote no just to screw the American people? They did last time.

 

[BluesLegend]

He agrees there is a problem but offers zero solutions. Sounds like a fricken lib.

They never do, all they do is talk and never take any action. There's been 40 years of inaction, well now the shit is hitting the fan and something must be done. Hello $36 TRILLION in debt, borrowing $2 trillion a year to prop up the FAKE standard of living. MILLIONS of manufacturing jobs stolen by other countries.

Who is fed up with those useless gas bags in Congress?

 

[80zephyr]

Is he saying that 60% of the US is too stupid to find productive work? (can't read?)

Congress must get the budget deficit down to (3% of GDP) or below $1T. Can DOGE save the US from bankruptcy?

Dalio looks very worried about the situation, since he started off with "this is a once in a lifetime event". Not good.

Congress needs to balance the 2026 budget, whatever it takes. Here are my recommendations:
1. return to a 2-year lifetime limit on Welfare, like we had in the 1990s. Phase it back to the states, i.e. off the budget.
2. throw able-bodied people off Medicaid, there needs to be a work requirement
3. make new revenue streams: add an "0.2% transaction tax on all financial transactions", add a "remittance tax on all money sent out of the US", remove the SS cap, remove the capitol gains tax break, remove all tax deductions for personal income taxes, its just the standard deduction, so income tax forms are post-card size.

No new taxes. Our spending is the problem.

 

[80zephyr]

Dalio sees the world trying to abandon American capital -- Treasuries, corporates, equities, futures. He knows that if we lose the dollar as the reserve currency, all bets are off. And if Treasuries take a back seat, we're straight up fucked.

This is how countries can bend over for tariffs because they have to, and screw us at the same time. Is anyone really dense enough to think they're just going to take this?

This stuff is based on trust and stability. America has been the dominant country for 80 years, because we have been so comparably stable and dependable. And now? We've lost that, globally. Poof. Gone. Damn near overnight.

We have been stable and dependable, while they kept bending us over. Unless we begin to look out for ourselves, our situation will not get better.

 

[Mac1958]

“We are going from multilateralism, which is largely an American world order type of thing, to a unilateral world order in which there’s great conflict,” he said.

Trump has these people thinking that we're the biggest economic victims in the history of historical histories.

I don't know what the hell they're expecting, but even if he completely "wins", they're not going to notice much difference when all is said and done. And they'll have to completely ignore all the damage that has been done.

 

[80zephyr]

Trump has these people thinking that we're the biggest economic victims in the history of historical histories.

I don't know what the hell they're expecting, but even if he completely "wins", they're not going to notice much difference when all is said and done. And they'll have to completely ignore all the damage that has been done.

What is your solution? Business as usual?

 

[Mac1958]

What is your solution? Business as usual?

You may not realize this, but it's possible to re-negotiate tariff relationships without insulting, mocking, intimidating and blackmailing our (formerly) friendly trading parters, ruining relationships that we've had for 80+ years and opening the door for China and other countries, since NO ONE has ANY allegiance to us now in ANY way.

AND without throwing the global bond market into a tailspin, threatening our absolutely critical Treasuries. THAT was a REAL work of art by Trump. I didn't even ANTICIPATE that one. Wow! Surprise!

I'm not going to ask if you understand. I don't want to know.

 

[80zephyr]

You may not realize this, but it's possible to re-negotiate tariff relationships without insulting, mocking, intimidating and blackmailing our (formerly) friendly trading parters, ruining relationships that we've had for 80+ years and opening the door for China and other countries, since NO ONE has ANY allegiance to us now in ANY way.

I'm not going to ask if you understand. I don't want to know.

Why should we have to? Why weren't we being treated fairly in the first place? Look at NATO. Until Trump came along most countries were more than happy that they were not paying their fair share while we provided for their defense. Hell, I am not sure that even today these countries are paying up.

Its time we take control. Or we go broke.

 

[Mac1958]

Why should we have to? Why weren't we being treated fairly in the first place? Look at NATO. Until Trump came along most countries were more than happy that they were not paying their fair share while we provided for their defense. Hell, I am not sure that even today these countries are paying up.

Its time we take control. Or we go broke.

Hey, it's working great! Okay! MAGA!

 

[80zephyr]

Hey, it's working great! Okay! MAGA!

Yes, it is. Our milquetoast politicians have done it your way. Now its time to fix this.

 

[Billiejeens]

The left - hedge fund investors are bad

Unless they disagree with President Trump.

 

[Billiejeens]

The Progressives caused the 2008 debacle. As we kept delaying a correction in housing and gave mortgages to people with no real good credit and used junk bonds as extra icing. A lot of people with homes who played by the rules suffered for that. All of those economists and others related who said we would have a much greater nation if we gave up all of our manufacturing a few decades ago. Now we must try to get manufacturing to return, especially in the important things. And you don't like it. A whaaa.....a whaaa...a whaaa.

2008 was 100% Democrat instituted.

 

[Zincwarrior]

China just ordered a stop to receipt of Boeing aircraft for its domestic airlines. This is going to be a permanent decoupling.

 

[Correll]

Dalio sees the world trying to abandon American capital -- Treasuries, corporates, equities, futures. He knows that if we lose the dollar as the reserve currency, all bets are off. And if Treasuries take a back seat, we're straight up fucked.

This is how countries can bend over for tariffs because they have to, and screw us at the same time. Is anyone really dense enough to think they're just going to take this?

This stuff is based on trust and stability. America has been the dominant country for 80 years, because we have been so comparably stable and dependable. And now? We've lost that, globally. Poof. Gone. Damn near overnight.

If you wanted a more nuanced approach, you had your chance. Decades when you made the call to instead just shout us down and move on with what YOU wanted, and damn the consequences for the working class.

 

[Dragonlady]

Is he saying that 60% of the US is too stupid to find productive work? (can't read?)

Congress must get the budget deficit down to (3% of GDP) or below $1T. Can DOGE save the US from bankruptcy?

Dalio looks very worried about the situation, since he started off with "this is a once in a lifetime event". Not good.

Congress needs to balance the 2026 budget, whatever it takes. Here are my recommendations:
1. return to a 2-year lifetime limit on Welfare, like we had in the 1990s. Phase it back to the states, i.e. off the budget.
2. throw able-bodied people off Medicaid, there needs to be a work requirement
3. make new revenue streams: add an "0.2% transaction tax on all financial transactions", add a "remittance tax on all money sent out of the US", remove the SS cap, remove the capitol gains tax break, remove all tax deductions for personal income taxes, its just the standard deduction, so income tax forms are post-card size.

Why do right wingers always want to cut programs for the poor. Never cut spending for the rich????

This is why you're in trouble. You keep giving money to the richest Americans on the backs of the poor.

Cut defense spending in half.