Rapidly-deteriorating Trump getting even more crotchety

[Marener]

Oboy, another leftwing armchair economist doom-and-gloomer.
When you have guys ever been right about anything?

Trump’s economic policies are so bad he’s having to find someone else to blame for the weakening economy.

Where’s the golden age Trump said we were in?

 

[Marener]

That is no excuse for a 500% error, TWICE, if you consider the first revision.

And how do you know? I don’t think you know anything about the statistical models they use.

The thing about models is that they are only accurate if things don’t change too much. If someone like Trump causes more chaos, the numbers are likely to also be chaotic.

 

[kyzr]

Trump’s economic policies are so bad he’s having to find someone else to blame for the weakening economy.
Where’s the golden age Trump said we were in?

Did you miss the 3% Q2 GDP? Where is that recession you all were predicting?

 

[Marener]

Did you miss the 3% Q2 GDP? Where is that recession you all were predicting?

I did see it, but it’s hardly impressive in context. The top number seems good but when you dig deeper, the report is quite weak.

 

[kyzr]

And how do you know? I don’t think you know anything about the statistical models they use.
The thing about models is that they are only accurate if things don’t change too much. If someone like Trump causes more chaos, the numbers are likely to also be chaotic.

There is no chaos. Just incompetent BLS folk who need to be replaced with competent people.

 

[schmidlap]

3 1/2 more years and I'm lovin' every minute of it!

It's downhill all the way!

 

[Marener]

There is no chaos. Just incompetent BLS folk who need to be replaced with competent people.

Of course there’s chaos. Just look how frequently Trump had changed tariff rates.

Trump is paranoid. He thinks bad economic reports are people trying to make him look bad. He doesn’t want competent people. He wants compliant people.

 

[kyzr]

Of course there’s chaos. Just look how frequently Trump had changed tariff rates.

Tariffs are a negotiation, i.e. "deal making". Democrats were happy getting screwed by everyone.
Now we're winning. We even had a $127b surplus in June.

Trump is paranoid. He thinks bad economic reports are people trying to make him look bad. He doesn’t want competent people. He wants compliant people.

Bad numbers are bad numbers. Lets see if Trump's shake-up of BLS gets more accurate numbers.

 

[Marener]

Tariffs are a negotiation, i.e. "deal making". Democrats were happy getting screwed by everyone.
Now we're winning. We even had a $127b surplus in June.

This doesn’t address the fact that they’re chaotic. You can’t pretend otherwise. You can defend it all you want, but it’s still chaotic.

Bad numbers are bad numbers. Let’s see if Trump's shake-up of BLS gets more accurate numbers.

By “more accurate”, does that mean numbers Trump wants to see? Trump thinks that they’re fake. It’s pretty clear what Trump wants.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Yep. That's ideology, and it infects people on both ends of the spectrum. More than anything else, I'm anti-ideology, because it makes people dishonest and myopic, and it strips them of their natural human curiosity -- the ideology itself provides all the answer.

Nice to know our small group has an additional member.

What's the Dim plan? The endless I hate Trump threads are retarded. What is the way forward? Any ideas?

 

[Independent thinker]

It's downhill all the way!

View attachment 1144606​

Downhill all the way for the left. The right are loving every minute of it. Keep on posting your melt downs. They are music to our ears.

 

[Meister]

What's the Dim plan? The endless I hate Trump threads are retarded. What is the way forward? Any ideas?

Reopen the border and get men back into women's sports.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Reopen the border and get men back into women's sports.

People like Mac1958 are like little whiny trolls with zero to offer. We all understand they hate Trump. It's a ten year broken record. But what is their way forward? I could given ten to fifteen ideas off the top of my head.

But Dims......nada.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Mac1958 since you don't want to post Dim ideas I will post them for you. I think this is fairly comprehensive.



The Dims stand for:

1. Open borders.

2. Chicks with dicks in women's sports and little girls' bathrooms.

3. Hatred of Jews and Israel.

4. Disdain for working class men and women of all races.

5. Globalism versus American Pride and Patriotism.

6. No cash bail and victim-blaming to support criminals and thugs.

7. Massive income re-distribution to favored groups.

8. Disdain for men and traditional male values (toxic masculinity).

9. Punishing success and rewarding losers, fuckups, and angry, hopelessly single cat ladies.

 

[JanetTheGreat]

Yep. That's ideology, and it infects people on both ends of the spectrum. More than anything else, I'm anti-ideology, because it makes people dishonest and myopic, and it strips them of their natural human curiosity -- the ideology itself provides all the answer.

Nice to know our small group has an additional member.

I used to be in the Trump cult for years. I was silly, naive and stupid. I worshipped the ground he walked on. Now I realize he's just another elite like everyone else and I was a few years late to understand what is really going on. He is no savior. There are no saviors in politics.

I am anti-ideology as well. A lot of people like to put a lot of "window dressing" on themselves. Labels, political parties, etc. I tend to think its all a bunch nonsense.

I get accused of being a Democrat merely for questioning Trump, but like, I am as anti-Democrat as it gets.

 

[Delldude]

I have my guesses about his mental situation, but his sacking of the lady who runs the jobs report because he didn't like the numbers is very concerning.

She hasn't been the greatest....Almost 1 million............must be a rounding error. It wasn't her first rodeo.

The revised figures show total employment in March was 818,000 lower than had been reported, or 0.5% fewer jobs. That suggests employers added 2.1 million jobs during the previous 12 month, not 2.9 million as originally counted.

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/21/nx-s1-5084178/us-fewer-jobs-biden-initially-reported

 

[kyzr]

This doesn’t address the fact that they’re chaotic. You can’t pretend otherwise. You can defend it all you want, but it’s still chaotic.

Tariffs are a new business condition, nothing more. Businesses need to consider them when planning for the future.
"Chaos" was the open border disaster under democrats. "Chaos" was an incompetent Joe Biden presidency. "Chaos" was the Kamala Harris campaign.

By “more accurate”, does that mean numbers Trump wants to see? Trump thinks that they’re fake. It’s pretty clear what Trump wants.

More accurate means more accurate, smaller revisions.

 

[Delldude]

Let's not look at the cause of those numbers- Tariffs, mass firings, etc.

She's had to revise her job numbers pretty much every time they're reported.

 

[Mac1958]

I used to be in the Trump cult for years. I was silly, naive and stupid. I worshipped the ground he walked on. Now I realize he's just another elite like everyone else and I was a few years late to understand what is really going on. He is no savior. There are no saviors in politics.

I am anti-ideology as well. A lot of people like to put a lot of "window dressing" on themselves. Labels, political parties, etc. I tend to think its all a bunch nonsense.

I get accused of being a Democrat merely for questioning Trump, but like, I am as anti-Democrat as it gets.

Yeah, you can only be one or the other with the flock. I've never seen binary thinking that strong.

The Left does some similar thinking as well. Before 2016, most of my attention was on PC/Identity Politics, so I had a few zillion squabbles with them. Most of them were convinced I was a hardcore right winger.

Original, independent thinking is REALLY frowned on right now.

 

[Delldude]

Greetings from the President:

A lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence by Erika McEntarfer, the former Biden-appointed Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions.


Under McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consistently published overly optimistic jobs numbers — only for those numbers to be quietly revised later:

• Today, BLS had to revise down May and June jobs reports by a combined 258,000 jobs. These previous faulty jobs reports enabled the Federal Reserve to continue its disastrous policy of keeping interest rates high.
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  • On June 6, The New York Times reported: “A solid jobs report for May has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s stance that it can take its time before restarting interest rate cuts.
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  • On July 3, The New York Times reported that the June jobs report “fortifies the Federal Reserve’s case that it does not need to be in a hurry to lower borrowing costs.”
  • The Daily Caller: “Including monthly revisions, the Biden administration overstated the number of jobs in the U.S. economy by 1.18 million in the year through March, accounting for approximately 36% of the 3.24 million jobs initially claimed, according to data from the BLS calculated by the Daily Caller News Foundation”
• In July 2024, BLS revised jobs added in May of that year down by 54,000 jobs, and the jobs added in April down by 57,000 jobs.
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• In April 2024, BLS revised the jobs added in February of that year down — then further revised the number down the following month.
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• In February 2024, BLS revised the jobs added in December of the prior year down by 43,000 jobs and the jobs added in January of that year down by 124,000 jobs.
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• Bloomberg, 11/15/24: “Two key Senate Republicans excoriated the US government statistics agency responsible for monthly employment reports, saying recent large-scale revisions to initial figures show its ‘continued failures’ in producing crucial economic data … A preliminary annual revision to the jobs data, made in August, suggested job growth in the 12 months through March will be marked down by more than 800,000 — the largest downward revision since 2009 — making waves in financial markets and on Capitol Hill. The final data is due early next year.”
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• Bloomberg, 6/6/24: “Data published Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest payrolls might have grown about 60,000 less per month on average last year than the roughly 250,000 run-rate derived from the agency’s monthly employment report.”
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• The Heritage Foundation, 5/3/2024: “The BLS provides monthly estimates for the number of nonfarm payrolls across the country through a survey of over 600,000 businesses. According to that data, payrolls increased by 640,000 in the third quarter of last year … But now, the BLS has published its Business Employment Dynamics, or BED, report from that same period, and it shows a drop in private payrolls of 192,000. That’s a mammoth difference of 832,000 for the months of July, August and September.”

During McEntarfer’s tenure, BLS was consistently plagued by technical errors and leaks of sensitive information:

• The Washington Post, 8/28/24: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday that a technical issue caused delays last week in the scheduled release of jobs data that carried major implications for the economy and the presidential election. Outside parties, the BLS said, then got the data because of a lack of communication within the agency over how to respond to public inquiries … The episode is at least the third in a series of missteps this year that critics argue may undermine faith in the agency.”
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• The Washington Post, 8/28/24: “Last week’s episode involved data closely watched by economists, Wall Street traders, and Federal Reserve officials who are keeping close tabs on employment as they prepare to cut interest rates. The lapse happened just days before the Fed sent its strongest signal yet that it was time to take pressure off the economy, in large part because officials fear that the labor market is softening — so financial markets were anticipating the release even more than usual.”
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• The Washington Post, 8/28/24: “The job revisions for last year and early 2024 appeared on a government website about a half-hour after their scheduled release time. But despite the delay, a handful of financial firms were able to obtain the information — which showed the largest downward revision to annual job creation in 15 years — before it was posted publicly. The gaffe appeared to run counter to the nonpartisan statistical agency’s long-standing policies intended to prevent individual stakeholders, particularly financial traders, from gaining any edge by ensuring that information is made widely accessible to everyone at the same time.”
• • “In March [2024], news reports revealed a BLS economist shared nonpublic information with several Wall Street firms.”
  • 
    
  • “On May 15[, 2024], BLS accidentally loaded data files to its website 30 minutes prior to the scheduled release time of the consumer price index.”
  • 
    
  • “On August 21[, 2024], while the public waited for the release of the job numbers, some Wall Street firms got a head start as BLS released the numbers to firms that spoke to the agency by phone, potentially giving them an unfair advantage.”
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  • “On August 26[, 2024], Chairwoman Foxx and Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions Subcommittee Chairman Bob Good (R-VA) called out the Biden-Harris administration for exaggerating job growth when revised BLS numbers proved an overestimate of more than 800,000 jobs.”
  • 
    
  • “On September 25[, 2024], to hold BLS accountable for its inability to ensure data is released uniformly and on time, Foxx and Good demanded answers from the Biden-Harris administration.”
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  • “On October 25[, 2024], after BLS ignored the congressional request and additional disturbing reports surfaced in the press about BLS actions the day of the job numbers release on [August 21, 2024], the Committee reupped its oversight inquiry and sent a follow-up letter to BLS.”