Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
John Cook1,2,3, Dana Nuccitelli2,4, Sarah A Green5, Mark Richardson6, Bärbel Winkler2, Rob Painting2,
Robert Way7, Peter Jacobs8 and Andrew Skuce2,9
Published 15 May 2013 • © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd
Environmental Research Letters,
Volume 8,
Number 2Citation John Cook
et al 2013
Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024
References
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https://badge.dimensions.ai/details.../8/2/024024?domain=https://iopscience.iop.org
Abstract
We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11,944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming.
Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers.
Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%).
Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time.
Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a Vanishingly Small proportion of the published research.
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature, Cook, John, Nuccitelli, Dana, Green, Sarah A, Richardson, Mark, Winkler, Bärbel, Painting, Rob, Way, Robert, Jacobs, Peter, Skuce, Andrew
iopscience.iop.org
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