Q4 2010 GDP revised to- 2.8%

[Trajan]

The initial figure was 3.2%, not exactly a juicy figure to start with, ( Q3 2010 settled at 2.6% btw) 19 months after the end of the recession and I think the final figure with one more 'estimate' to go, will will drop further, matching Q3 at 2.6%. Thud.

The 'experts ' were expecting an increase by that to 3.3% btw....there goes that.

 

[william the wie]

Trajan use a colon not a dash for the title. I only replied because I thought you had a major problem and I was wondering if I should PM you. Your title as written indicates a 6% downward revision in GDP.

 

[Zander]

Shut up! Everyone knows that the economy is booming, just ask a Democrat.

 

[boedicca]

And at least 1.6 points of the total 2.6 was due to inflation (likely more as energy and food price increases are not properly reflected).

 

[william the wie]

At first I thought the title was a projected Q4 2011 estimate which while theoretically possible using demographic data is a pain in the ass to do with huge margins of error even using supercomputers.

 

[Polk]

And at least 1.6 points of the total 2.6 was due to inflation (likely more as energy and food price increases are not properly reflected).

The GDP figures are calculated in real dollars, not nominal terms.

 

[Trajan]

Trajan use a colon not a dash for the title. I only replied because I thought you had a major problem and I was wondering if I should PM you. Your title as written indicates a 6% downward revision in GDP.

you're right. a number should never be preceded by a sign that can denote value. much obliged.

 

[uscitizen]

Are not inflated dollars still dollars?
If the price of of food and energy rise does not the GDP rise?

 

[xsited1]

And at least 1.6 points of the total 2.6 was due to inflation (likely more as energy and food price increases are not properly reflected).

Now that's just ridiculous. There is no inflation in America. Otherwise, the seniors would have gotten a cost of living increase:

No Social Security COLA: How Unfair is That? - CBS MoneyWatch.com

 

[skeptic]

And at least 1.6 points of the total 2.6 was due to inflation (likely more as energy and food price increases are not properly reflected).

The GDP figures are calculated in real dollars, not nominal terms.

iow in inflation adjusted dollars.

But there seems to be some kind of dislocation between the official inflation figures and reality. And the CPI is hardly an accurate measure of inflation on it's best day.

If we are gonna set COLAs based on inflation it seems as if we could develop a truly accurate index. Unless of course "we" would prefer that the public not know.

 

[Polk]

Are not inflated dollars still dollars?
If the price of of food and energy rise does not the GDP rise?

No, it doesn't.

 

[Polk]

And at least 1.6 points of the total 2.6 was due to inflation (likely more as energy and food price increases are not properly reflected).

The GDP figures are calculated in real dollars, not nominal terms.

iow in inflation adjusted dollars.

But there seems to be some kind of dislocation between the official inflation figures and reality. And the CPI is hardly an accurate measure of inflation on it's best day.

If we are gonna set COLAs based on inflation it seems as if we could develop a truly accurate index. Unless of course "we" would prefer that the public not know.

Perhaps, but doubtful. In fact, the general consensus among economists is that CPI-W actually overstates inflation.

 

[Toro]

Are not inflated dollars still dollars?
If the price of of food and energy rise does not the GDP rise?

Nominal GDP rises, real GDP - that 2.8% number - does not.

 

[skeptic]

The GDP figures are calculated in real dollars, not nominal terms.

iow in inflation adjusted dollars.

But there seems to be some kind of dislocation between the official inflation figures and reality. And the CPI is hardly an accurate measure of inflation on it's best day.

If we are gonna set COLAs based on inflation it seems as if we could develop a truly accurate index. Unless of course "we" would prefer that the public not know.

Perhaps, but doubtful. In fact, the general consensus among economists is that CPI-W actually overstates inflation.

And a general consensus among economists never foresaw the myriad problems in 2008 going viral.

Why would anybody trust a general consensus of economists to judge the economy?

Do you trust criminals to judge the state of crime in America?

 

[Polk]

iow in inflation adjusted dollars.

But there seems to be some kind of dislocation between the official inflation figures and reality. And the CPI is hardly an accurate measure of inflation on it's best day.

If we are gonna set COLAs based on inflation it seems as if we could develop a truly accurate index. Unless of course "we" would prefer that the public not know.

Perhaps, but doubtful. In fact, the general consensus among economists is that CPI-W actually overstates inflation.

And a general consensus among economists never foresaw the myriad problems in 2008 going viral.

Why would anybody trust a general consensus of economists to judge the economy?

Do you trust criminals to judge the state of crime in America?

This is the part where you're confusing economists and financiers.

 

[skeptic]

and a general consensus among economists never foresaw the myriad problems in 2008 going viral.

Why would anybody trust a general consensus of economists to judge the economy?

Do you trust criminals to judge the state of crime in america?

this is the part where you're confusing economists and financiers.

not!

 

[pinqy]

And at least 1.6 points of the total 2.6 was due to inflation (likely more as energy and food price increases are not properly reflected).

The GDP figures are calculated in real dollars, not nominal terms.

iow in inflation adjusted dollars.

But there seems to be some kind of dislocation between the official inflation figures and reality. And the CPI is hardly an accurate measure of inflation on it's best day.

If we are gonna set COLAs based on inflation it seems as if we could develop a truly accurate index. Unless of course "we" would prefer that the public not know.

The GDP doesn't use the CPI. They use the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures).

As for your claims of inaccuracy...what is the basis of your claims? If you're saying the CPI is inaccurate, how do you know? What more accurate measure are you using to determine this?

 

[editec]

The GDP figures are calculated in real dollars, not nominal terms.

iow in inflation adjusted dollars.

But there seems to be some kind of dislocation between the official inflation figures and reality. And the CPI is hardly an accurate measure of inflation on it's best day.

If we are gonna set COLAs based on inflation it seems as if we could develop a truly accurate index. Unless of course "we" would prefer that the public not know.

The GDP doesn't use the CPI. They use the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures).

As for your claims of inaccuracy...what is the basis of your claims? If you're saying the CPI is inaccurate, how do you know? What more accurate measure are you using to determine this?

Their math is correct, but the formula to determine CPI is bogus.

The cost of energy isn't included, neither is the cost of food.

Plus they have this "substiution" formula which is likewise complete nonsense.

If the cost of steak goes up and people buy hamburger, they imply that substiution kept the CPI down.

Why do they LIE like this?

COLAs, obviously.

 

[pinqy]

iow in inflation adjusted dollars.

But there seems to be some kind of dislocation between the official inflation figures and reality. And the CPI is hardly an accurate measure of inflation on it's best day.

If we are gonna set COLAs based on inflation it seems as if we could develop a truly accurate index. Unless of course "we" would prefer that the public not know.

The GDP doesn't use the CPI. They use the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures).

As for your claims of inaccuracy...what is the basis of your claims? If you're saying the CPI is inaccurate, how do you know? What more accurate measure are you using to determine this?

Their math is correct, but the formula to determine CPI is bogus.

The cost of energy isn't included, neither is the cost of food.

Let's look: Table 1 of the CPI News Release Now, what's the first item there, accounting for 14.792% of the index? Oh, that's FOOD. And lower down, there's our old friend Energy.

Quit spreading misinformation, food and energy are part of the CPI, always have been. "Less food and energy" is a special index that used to be used by the FED for interest rate calculations, but has NEVER been used for Social Security determination.

Plus they have this "substiution" formula which is likewise complete nonsense.

This should be fun...explain in detail the substitution formula. And then I'll correct all your errors.

If the cost of steak goes up and people buy hamburger, they imply that substiution kept the CPI down.

No, they don't. But if you want to provide evidence, go ahead, show something from BLS or other technical source showing this.

Read teh Misconceptions on the CPI before you spread more misinformation.

 

[Polk]

iow in inflation adjusted dollars.

But there seems to be some kind of dislocation between the official inflation figures and reality. And the CPI is hardly an accurate measure of inflation on it's best day.

If we are gonna set COLAs based on inflation it seems as if we could develop a truly accurate index. Unless of course "we" would prefer that the public not know.

The GDP doesn't use the CPI. They use the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures).

As for your claims of inaccuracy...what is the basis of your claims? If you're saying the CPI is inaccurate, how do you know? What more accurate measure are you using to determine this?

Their math is correct, but the formula to determine CPI is bogus.

The cost of energy isn't included, neither is the cost of food.

Plus they have this "substiution" formula which is likewise complete nonsense.

If the cost of steak goes up and people buy hamburger, they imply that substiution kept the CPI down.

Why do they LIE like this?

COLAs, obviously.

1. The cost of food and energy is included in CPI.
2. Not only do people substitute comparable goods for one another, there is strong evidence to support the idea they do it more much frequently that the CPI calculation assumes they do.