Putin has Lost

[Toro]

Excellent article on why Putin has lost.

No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his “friends.” What happens next depends less on the military outcome of the conflict than on other factors he has already put in motion and that will further affect him.​

It might seem presumptuous in the first week of a war to predict its outcome and second-order effects for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, but it seems Putin’s defeat is the likely product of five factors: the heavy price of a prospective military victory, the quagmire of an occupation, the strengthening of NATO and European defense, the international isolation of Russia, and the internal contestation which may lead to Putin’s fall. So Putin lost, but it does not mean we win. He knows that he cornered himself and this is precisely where it gets dangerous because he may think that the only way out for him is to escalate.​

Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, But We Might Too - War on the Rocks

Editor’s note: This is an updated and adapted version of an article originally published in the European publication Le Grand Continent, in French,

warontherocks.com

 

[Baron]

Excellent article on why Putin has lost.

No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his “friends.” What happens next depends less on the military outcome of the conflict than on other factors he has already put in motion and that will further affect him.​

It might seem presumptuous in the first week of a war to predict its outcome and second-order effects for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, but it seems Putin’s defeat is the likely product of five factors: the heavy price of a prospective military victory, the quagmire of an occupation, the strengthening of NATO and European defense, the international isolation of Russia, and the internal contestation which may lead to Putin’s fall. So Putin lost, but it does not mean we win. He knows that he cornered himself and this is precisely where it gets dangerous because he may think that the only way out for him is to escalate.​

Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, But We Might Too - War on the Rocks

Editor’s note: This is an updated and adapted version of an article originally published in the European publication Le Grand Continent, in French,

warontherocks.com

Are you working for jewish presstitutes and insane NATO 'politicians'?
In difference to NATO Putin doesn't bomb cities and causes millions of deaths.
Your f.... bandera nazis will be murdered by Ukrainian people itself after they get knowledge their rulership is gone.

 

[Silver Cat]

Wishful thinking and ignorance.

 

[Mac1958]

Excellent article on why Putin has lost.

No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his “friends.” What happens next depends less on the military outcome of the conflict than on other factors he has already put in motion and that will further affect him.​

It might seem presumptuous in the first week of a war to predict its outcome and second-order effects for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, but it seems Putin’s defeat is the likely product of five factors: the heavy price of a prospective military victory, the quagmire of an occupation, the strengthening of NATO and European defense, the international isolation of Russia, and the internal contestation which may lead to Putin’s fall. So Putin lost, but it does not mean we win. He knows that he cornered himself and this is precisely where it gets dangerous because he may think that the only way out for him is to escalate.​

Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, But We Might Too - War on the Rocks

Editor’s note: This is an updated and adapted version of an article originally published in the European publication Le Grand Continent, in French,

warontherocks.com

No way to know what he was thinking, or what he's thinking now, but he's clearly trying to clamp down on the country. It's tough to see how can pull this off, but after being wrong many times I no longer make long term assumptions.

 

[Toro]

Another good article.

As the Russo-Ukrainian War takes a darker turn it is important to emphasise this essential point. This is a war that Vladimir Putin cannot win, however long it lasts and however cruel his methods.​

From the start the Russian campaign has been hampered by political objectives that cannot be translated into meaningful military objectives. Putin has described a mythical Ukraine, a product of a fevered imagination stimulated by cockeyed historical musings. His Ukraine appears as a wayward sibling to be rescued from the ‘drug addicts and Nazis’ (his phrase) that have led it astray. It is not a fantasy that Ukrainians recognise. They see it as an excuse to turn their country into a passive colony and this they will not allow. No Russian-backed government would have legitimacy and Russia lacks the capacity for an indefinite occupation to keep such a government in place.​

This underlying strategic folly has been reinforced by the tactical ineptitude with which the campaign has been prosecuted. A quick and relatively painless victory, with Kyiv in Russian hands and President Zelensky nowhere to be seen, might have allowed Putin to impose a victor’s peace of some sort, whether in promises of neutrality and demilitarisation, new constitutional arrangements, or even territorial concessions.​

Instead, the Russian generals chose to show how smart they were by relying on speed and surprise to take key cities, using only a fraction of the assembled force, and not even bothering to gain control of the skies. The arrogance of the plan was shown in the move against the capital. This involved flying in regular units to the outskirts of the capital to meet up with special forces and sundry saboteurs already in its precincts. This ended as an operational shamble.​

Russia's Plan C

And Plan D...

samf.substack.com

 

[Toro]

Wishful thinking and ignorance.

^^^^^^^^
Russian troll

 

[Mac-7]

Excellent article on why Putin has lost.

No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his “friends.” What happens next depends less on the military outcome of the conflict than on other factors he has already put in motion and that will further affect him.​

It might seem presumptuous in the first week of a war to predict its outcome and second-order effects for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, but it seems Putin’s defeat is the likely product of five factors: the heavy price of a prospective military victory, the quagmire of an occupation, the strengthening of NATO and European defense, the international isolation of Russia, and the internal contestation which may lead to Putin’s fall. So Putin lost, but it does not mean we win. He knows that he cornered himself and this is precisely where it gets dangerous because he may think that the only way out for him is to escalate.​

Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, But We Might Too - War on the Rocks

Editor’s note: This is an updated and adapted version of an article originally published in the European publication Le Grand Continent, in French,

warontherocks.com

I tend to agree with this

and I hope it gives china second thoughts about invading Taiwan

 

[Baron]

Wishful thinking and ignorance.

Russia shall punish any Banderite who committed crimes against native Russians

 

[Baron]

Another good article.

As the Russo-Ukrainian War takes a darker turn it is important to emphasise this essential point. This is a war that Vladimir Putin cannot win, however long it lasts and however cruel his methods.​

From the start the Russian campaign has been hampered by political objectives that cannot be translated into meaningful military objectives. Putin has described a mythical Ukraine, a product of a fevered imagination stimulated by cockeyed historical musings. His Ukraine appears as a wayward sibling to be rescued from the ‘drug addicts and Nazis’ (his phrase) that have led it astray. It is not a fantasy that Ukrainians recognise. They see it as an excuse to turn their country into a passive colony and this they will not allow. No Russian-backed government would have legitimacy and Russia lacks the capacity for an indefinite occupation to keep such a government in place.​

This underlying strategic folly has been reinforced by the tactical ineptitude with which the campaign has been prosecuted. A quick and relatively painless victory, with Kyiv in Russian hands and President Zelensky nowhere to be seen, might have allowed Putin to impose a victor’s peace of some sort, whether in promises of neutrality and demilitarisation, new constitutional arrangements, or even territorial concessions.​

Instead, the Russian generals chose to show how smart they were by relying on speed and surprise to take key cities, using only a fraction of the assembled force, and not even bothering to gain control of the skies. The arrogance of the plan was shown in the move against the capital. This involved flying in regular units to the outskirts of the capital to meet up with special forces and sundry saboteurs already in its precincts. This ended as an operational shamble.​

Russia's Plan C

And Plan D...

samf.substack.com

This article is much better

Kiev has almost lost the ability to govern its regions and districts, the Russian Defense Ministry said, and the country has disintegrated into fragments. Under these conditions, local officials have exhibited an inability to take care of their citizens: even in cities deep in the rear, there is a shortage of food in stores and medicine in pharmacies. Why and how is this happening?

"The Kiev regime has almost completely lost the ability to manage the country's regional and district administrations," Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, head of Russia's National Defense Management Center, said Friday. According to the colonel-general, civilian authorities in populated areas of Ukraine are deprived of the right to deal with the civilian population, as well as unable to resolve issues of a social and domestic nature.

"In most cities and towns, the national battalions of the so-called territorial defense are rampaging, and in fact they are Nazis and mercenaries who have joined them, terrorists and bandits, including those of foreign origin," he added. In particular, officials refuse to help with the evacuation of civilians from Kharkiv because they fear reprisals, Mizintsev added, while referring to his conversation with officials in Kiev and Kharkiv regarding the organization of a humanitarian corridor.

At the same time, the humanitarian situation in most of Ukraine is, unfortunately, rapidly deteriorating, the general added. "The most difficult situation remains in Kiev, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv and Mariupol, as well as in a number of other localities. There is practically a humanitarian catastrophe in these cities today," said Mizintsev.

"As of today, 35 humanitarian actions are planned in the Kiev, Sumy, Kharkov, Kherson regions, as well as in the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics, during which 280 tons of basic necessities will be handed over to the population of the liberated areas. We are also talking about food and medicines," summarized Mizintsev.

Kiev found itself on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe as early as the beginning of this week - and Vitaliy Klitschko, the mayor, is primarily to blame. The evacuation of the population never began, although even the Russian Defense Ministry openly pointed out that it was possible to leave the capital via the Kiev-Vasilkov highway, but the local administration did not want to deal with it seriously, said political analyst Alexei Nechaev in his Telegram channel.

"Curfew was reduced, people went out to the stores, stood in huge lines - and returned home empty-handed. Klitschko still has not solved the issue with logistics and food deliveries. On the right bank the situation is a little better. He seems to have forgotten about the left bank," he wrote. By Wednesday, local businesses had begun to resolve food issues, but problems with medical supplies remained.

"Evacuation and 'green corridors' are key requests from city residents. According to the UN, 1 million people have left the country, with Kiev accounting for the lion's share - and understandably so. Already on March 4, there are more than 40 trains leaving the city for the West. It's not much, but there is progress. Transport communication between the left and right banks of the Dnieper has also been restored," said the expert.

Source:

Украина подает сигналы распада - sam88 — КОНТ

Киев почти утратил способность управлять областями и районами, сообщили в Минобороны России, а страна распалась на фрагменты. В этих условиях местные чиновники выказали неспособность за | Украина подает сигналы распада |Автор sam88. Больше статей автора читать на сайте.

cont.ws

 

[Toro]

From the second article

Most importantly, they have mobilised and organised a popular militia to help defend their cities. Zelensky found the words to motivate his people and gain international support. The Ukrainian narrative speaks of solidarity, heroism, and sacrifice, with no suggestion that the coming days and weeks will be anything other than tough. This forms a stark contrast to the Russian narrative of festering grievances and phoney innocence, as Putin’s mouthpieces have been unable to provide convincing accounts of what Russian forces were doing and why, and left pointing to the unrelated crimes of others to justify their own.

​

 

[saveliberty]

Russia shall punish any Banderite who committed crimes against native Russians

Russia is about to become a third world country. Time to wake up to reality.

 

[Sunni Man]

Excellent article on why Putin has lost.

Comrade, our beloved Pres. Putin deployed the Russian army on a humanitarian mission to rescue the Ukrainian people from the globalist fascists like Zelensky who want to enslave them with diabolical western ideas and immoral behavior. ....

 

[Toro]

Another good article

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine has been a clarifying moment. Since he came to power in 2000, various Western leaders have tried to cooperate, accommodate, or negotiate with him. But by embarking on a war of choice against a country he claims doesn’t have a right to exist, Putin has forced the international community to see him for what he is: a belligerent leader with a remarkable capacity for destruction. The result has been sweeping new measures designed to constrict and constrain him—punishing sanctions against Russia’s financial institutions, bans on Russian planes over EU airspace, and increased weapons shipments to Ukraine. Even Germany, long reluctant to confront Putin, agreed to exclude Russian banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system, reversed its long-standing prohibition on providing arms to conflict zones, and substantially increased its military spending. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked nothing less than a sea change in international perceptions of Putin and what must be done to confront him.​

Such a sea change could well be underway inside Russia, too. Throughout his tenure, Putin has maintained relatively high levels of public support thanks in large part to his ability to restore economic growth and stability after the turmoil of the 1990s. While most Russians have few illusions about their leader, recognizing the corruption that benefits him and the elite around him, it remained all but unfathomable to most Russians that Putin would launch a major conventional war against their Ukrainian neighbors. For months, many Russian analysts, commentators, and citizens alike were convinced that Putin would not engage in such an act of aggression. The news of the war and the economic ramifications that followed have led Russians to see both Putin and Russia differently; Russia is not the same today as it was last week.​

The Beginning of the End for Putin?

Dictatorships look stable—until they aren’t.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[TeeDub]

Are you working for jewish presstitutes and insane NATO 'politicians'?
In difference to NATO Putin doesn't bomb cities and causes millions of deaths.
Your f.... bandera nazis will be murdered by Ukrainian people itself after they get knowledge their rulership is gone.

Hey Baron Von Shithead, you should remove your empty head from your big ass and look around. Her Putang doesn't bomb cities? Than the videos we are watching must be a big Hollywood production. Nice try Moscow Mitch but before you try again get a new dictionary and what the fuck is a "PRESSTITUTES". I just wish Joe would stay awake long enough to give Ukraine the A10's the air force was going to retire. They would surely fuck up your day along with your "bandera borscht butthole buddies" Komrade Klink now go Fuck yourself.

 

[Baron]

Comrade, our beloved Pres. Putin deployed the Russian army on a humanitarian mission to rescue the Ukrainian people from the globalist fascists like Zelensky who want to enslave them with diabolical western ideas and immoral behavior. ....

Hey Baron Von Shithead, you should remove your empty head from your big ass and look around. Her Putang doesn't bomb cities? Than the videos we are watching must be a big Hollywood production. Nice try Moscow Mitch but before you try again get a new dictionary and what the fuck is a "PRESSTITUTES". I just wish Joe would stay awake long enough to give Ukraine the A10's the air force was going to retire. They would surely fuck up your day along with your "bandera borscht butthole buddies" Komrade Klink now go Fuck yourself.

NATO Export of Democracy

IRAQ

Lybia

Syria

Afghanistan

As the last coward NATO firstly bombs entirely cities and kills millions of civilists.
In difference Russia fights only SS Hitler banderities and their dens, not civilians

 

[Litwin]

Excellent article on why Putin has lost.

No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his “friends.” What happens next depends less on the military outcome of the conflict than on other factors he has already put in motion and that will further affect him.​

It might seem presumptuous in the first week of a war to predict its outcome and second-order effects for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, but it seems Putin’s defeat is the likely product of five factors: the heavy price of a prospective military victory, the quagmire of an occupation, the strengthening of NATO and European defense, the international isolation of Russia, and the internal contestation which may lead to Putin’s fall. So Putin lost, but it does not mean we win. He knows that he cornered himself and this is precisely where it gets dangerous because he may think that the only way out for him is to escalate.​

Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, But We Might Too - War on the Rocks

Editor’s note: This is an updated and adapted version of an article originally published in the European publication Le Grand Continent, in French,

warontherocks.com

+1

 

[Esdraelon]

No way to know what he was thinking, or what he's thinking now, but he's clearly trying to clamp down on the country. It's tough to see how can pull this off, but after being wrong many times I no longer make long term assumptions.

Putin easily has the brute force to take Ukrainian cities. If he wants to occupy and CONTROL THEM, not so much.

 

[Esdraelon]

NATO Export of Democracy

Russia "saving" ethnic brothers:

Grozny is the best modern example. If the people in Kyiv, Kherson, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, to name a few, refuse to surrender, they will look like Grozny as well. If Putin wants a "buffer state" between Russia and NATO he can accomplish that without turning the land and its people into rubble.

 

[Toro]

Ah-men, brother

 

[theHawk]

Excellent article on why Putin has lost.

No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his “friends.” What happens next depends less on the military outcome of the conflict than on other factors he has already put in motion and that will further affect him.​

It might seem presumptuous in the first week of a war to predict its outcome and second-order effects for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, but it seems Putin’s defeat is the likely product of five factors: the heavy price of a prospective military victory, the quagmire of an occupation, the strengthening of NATO and European defense, the international isolation of Russia, and the internal contestation which may lead to Putin’s fall. So Putin lost, but it does not mean we win. He knows that he cornered himself and this is precisely where it gets dangerous because he may think that the only way out for him is to escalate.​

Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, But We Might Too - War on the Rocks

Editor’s note: This is an updated and adapted version of an article originally published in the European publication Le Grand Continent, in French,

warontherocks.com

wow, it didn’t take long for Toro to claim that Russia was losing and getting its ass kicked in Ukraine to now “even if Russia takes Kiev tomorrow, they still lose”.