- Jun 6, 2007
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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has an opportunity to be a hero a great Russian leader and redeem his reputation! In his 11 minute speech yesterday, his March Of Justice Speech, (it really tells you something how it threatened the world establishment the fact that you cannot hear the entire speech on any of the big name news outlets and video outlets even YouTube that generally has a video on anything significant) Yevgeny touched on something critically important which is a major reason why the Wagner forces received widespread public support amongst the Russian people this past weekend on their March to Moscow when Yevgeny said that the Wagner military units protests tapped into a desire amongst ordinary Russian civilians to "fight against bureaucracy and other evils that exist in our country (Russia) today". Major discontent amongst the Russian population over Putin's authoritative regime and the poverty, corruption and depravity of basic civil rights that it has wrought on the Russian people coupled with Yevgeny statement over the past week that the Russian people were lied to about the Kremlin's justification for the "special operation in Ukraine" that Ukraine posed a military threat to Russia that was completely a false rationale Ukraine had no intentions at all to enter Russia. This correction of the record by Prigozhin this shedding of light on the reasons behind Russia's central government entering into this war in Ukraine that there was no legitimacy at all behind the special operation is a game changer for the Russian people if Yevgeny Prigozhin wants to make it such. Yevgeny now has the power to launch a series of events that will bring down Putin and could put Russia on the path to a true Democracy.
The objective of the strategy for Prigozhin would not be for him to replace Putin which I don't think he has any interest in doing for one he is smart enough to know that he would never be accepted by the international community as a legitimate leader of any major country for the murder and the barbarism of his mercenary group The Wagner Group. The objective of the strategy for Prigozhin would be bring about a constitutional change in Russia that not only would permanently get rid of the corrupt Putin government but permanently enshrine a good Democracy government in Russia. The essence of the strategy for Prigozhin would be to take the public position the Russian military lied to the Russian people about the justification for the war and are inept at operating the military so Prigozhin is going to take control of all the Russian forces in the Ukrainian theater. So what Prigozhin can do is say I am ending this Russian invasion war in Ukraine he can say to the Russian front line units in Ukraine if you want to withdrawal I will help you Prigozhin who had lines of communication open to Ukraine Security services during the battle of Bakhmut can reopen the lines of communication and enter into an agreement with the Ukraine military whereby for the Russian units that agree to withdrawal Prigozhin can inform the location of such units and the Ukrainian military will agree to stop fighting them as long as they are exhibiting actions to withdrawal and the withdrawing Russians can take their weapons, ammunition and supplies with them and these Russian units actually timely withdrawal. The upside to the Ukrainian military is that this will save Ukrainian soldiers lives and get their land back; and, if the Ukrainian military doesn't agree Prigozhin has an army of twenty-five thousand troops and it will grow as Russian troops take the out that Prigozhin is offering and Prigozhin will have the military power to provide good cover for the withdrawing units. To the Russian units that don't want to withdrawal they can be left to the fate of the Ukrainian military and get captured or killed by the Ukrainian military.
The idea for Prigozhin would be to ally with some good pro-human rights groups and leaders in Russia (like the Alexei Navalny group) open up lines of communication with Putin and negotiate a bare bones constitution that addresses the authoritarian problem in Russia and the end of the Putin regime and the end of the hostilities in Russia. The final agreement would include Putin agreeing to permanently step down from power in Russia and stay out of politics and go off to some estate in Russia that would actually be like a separate state it would be like the Vatican, Putin would live a comfortable life on the estate and for his protection be permitted to have an Army numbering fifteen thousand soldiers for ten years than dropping to ten thousand soldiers he wouldn't be permitted an air force or nuclear or weapons of mass destruction but would be permitted heavy weapons only in numbers sufficient for defense. He would get amnesty for all past crimes and wouldn't be able to be prosecuted for future crimes but if found to have done such serious future crimes he would not be permitted to leave his estate in Russia. He would never be able to be extradited to face international criminal tribunals and this whole arrangement would end in fifty years or when he dies. The same deal would be made for Prigozhin because although he isn't nearly as bad as Putin what he did at Bakhmut bringing about the death of twenty thousand Russians through barbaric behavior using these former prisoners as artillery fodder and to bait or smoke out Ukrainian fighters in divulging their location will cause some Russians to forever try to bring about his prosecution, so he needs protection here. To forever stopping a strongman from arising up in Russia this barebones constitution would limit the size of any future central government's army and intelligence and law enforcement forces. Further, to have a check on a tyrant rising up in the central government divide Russia into three sections call them province regions and the only purpose of these province regions is to have a sizable army to provide defense of the country or if the central government becomes a dictatorship to dismantle the central government's army and police and security services. The constitution would also adopt a federalism approach like the U.S. has toward the criminal justice system where the provinces each have their own criminal justice system which the central government cannot interfere with so corrupt people could be prosecuted in the province system if the central government became corrupt and was supporting this corruption through non-prosecution. The constitution would ban all present and past members of Russia's legislatures from holding national or provincial elected office again if they had the character to support and facilitate Putin's corrupt government they are deemed forever untrustworthy to hold public office again. The constitution would also mandate this bare bones part of Russia's constitution could not be amended for fifty years so to stop any reneging on the deal and the balance of the constitution would create a path to hold fair elections and the formation and adoption of an entire constitution.
Until Putin agrees to this government transition Prigozhin should not embark on a full blown civil war and creating the massive blood shed that would ensue he should try to avoid squaring off with Putin loyal units and try to avoid going to Moscow if it would involve a big battle. What Prigozhin should do is fully get control of the provinces near Ukraine and then whittle away at the Putin's structure of government. Publicize images along with the names and addresses of the leaders of Putin's police force and intelligence services and key Putin allies in the Russian legislature and call for their assassination and help the individuals and groups willing to carry such out. Successful grass root rebellions often involve killing the leaders of important entities of their enemy, copy that. Prigozhin should get control of as much of Russia's natural resource production as possible and take the revenue for such selling to fund their overthrow effort. Prigozhin should offer the Russian public an alternative to Putin propaganda in the media. Prigozhin should just be patient once he gives the Russian people a revolt option to Putin the goodness in people's human nature will take over and they will begin to fight the corruption and their efforts will grow until Russian authorities begin to take steps to implement the Russian public's wishes!
Why should Prigozhin pursue the protest and government change option because he is already a dead man the means and time and place for his death haven't been selected but those incidental's definitely will be. Prigozhin you are a man of the streets you have been in prison you know there is a code about living in such environments and you broke the code for living in an environment where there is a strongman the code is you don't threaten his authority and you don't make him significantly weaker. Prigozhin your mutiny and rebellion this past weekend not only threatened Putin's position as head of Russia you made him look weak Putin's army didn't protect him by confronting the Wagner forces and the Russian public cheered his enemies. Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin is going to kill you and his desire to kill you is as much if not more so any such desire Putin had to kill anyone in his life and this guy has directly killed thousands in his life. Going to Belarus isn't going to save Yevgeny's neck, Putin is in control of that country as if it was a province of Russia. Yevgeny's only option for survival is to sideline Putin before he has a chance to carry out his plans and causing Putin to permanently step down from power would suffice to sideline Putin.
Why should Putin agree to the deal if Prigozhin pulls the trigger and leads the willing parts of the Russian army out of Ukraine. Because if Putin tries to neutralize this Prigozhin effort and let us for sake of argument say he does the Russian troops near Moscow rally behind Vladimir and go down and wipe out Yevgeny's forces in Ukraine and for the cherry on the top kill Yevgeny Prigozhin. Putin is still left with a war in Russia he cannot win, Ukraine and her allies have built a great Ukrainian army sure Russia has put up major defenses minefield and artillery and formidable air power and Ukraine's counter offensive will be costly to Ukraine and take time but Russian defenses are not enough to stop Ukraine. Ukraine began its counteroffensive around three weeks ago and one major obstacle is the Russian attack helicopter KA-52 "The Alligator" it has medium range ground to air missiles that can take out tanks and these missiles allow the helicopter to be flown outside the range of the shoulder fired manpads Ukrainian forces have but this is not a permanent obstacle Ukraine's allies are getting medium range SAM systems for the Ukraine military to protect the troops on Ukraine's front lines of their counteroffensive. Yesterday I heard retired General Ben Hodges and today retired General Jack Keane and there is probably a lot of other military experts saying the same thing that if Ukraine was given what it is asking for which is not unreasonable the war would be over in like a year with Ukraine winning. The bottom line and this is from America's experience with the tragedy of Vietnam where a large part of a whole generation of American soldiers were seriously hurt physically and psychologically over an unjust war, America propping up a corrupt Vietnam government. If Putin continues with this futile war in Ukraine he is just going to end up with a generation of lots of killed and physically/mentally wounded Russians and their angry families and friends which provides fertile ground for a young charismatic authoritative leader to rise up and take power from Putin where what most likely will unfold is Putin being killed or put in jail for life. Better and more prudent for Putin to negotiate his exit from the national and international stage, he'll get a better deal!
The objective of the strategy for Prigozhin would not be for him to replace Putin which I don't think he has any interest in doing for one he is smart enough to know that he would never be accepted by the international community as a legitimate leader of any major country for the murder and the barbarism of his mercenary group The Wagner Group. The objective of the strategy for Prigozhin would be bring about a constitutional change in Russia that not only would permanently get rid of the corrupt Putin government but permanently enshrine a good Democracy government in Russia. The essence of the strategy for Prigozhin would be to take the public position the Russian military lied to the Russian people about the justification for the war and are inept at operating the military so Prigozhin is going to take control of all the Russian forces in the Ukrainian theater. So what Prigozhin can do is say I am ending this Russian invasion war in Ukraine he can say to the Russian front line units in Ukraine if you want to withdrawal I will help you Prigozhin who had lines of communication open to Ukraine Security services during the battle of Bakhmut can reopen the lines of communication and enter into an agreement with the Ukraine military whereby for the Russian units that agree to withdrawal Prigozhin can inform the location of such units and the Ukrainian military will agree to stop fighting them as long as they are exhibiting actions to withdrawal and the withdrawing Russians can take their weapons, ammunition and supplies with them and these Russian units actually timely withdrawal. The upside to the Ukrainian military is that this will save Ukrainian soldiers lives and get their land back; and, if the Ukrainian military doesn't agree Prigozhin has an army of twenty-five thousand troops and it will grow as Russian troops take the out that Prigozhin is offering and Prigozhin will have the military power to provide good cover for the withdrawing units. To the Russian units that don't want to withdrawal they can be left to the fate of the Ukrainian military and get captured or killed by the Ukrainian military.
The idea for Prigozhin would be to ally with some good pro-human rights groups and leaders in Russia (like the Alexei Navalny group) open up lines of communication with Putin and negotiate a bare bones constitution that addresses the authoritarian problem in Russia and the end of the Putin regime and the end of the hostilities in Russia. The final agreement would include Putin agreeing to permanently step down from power in Russia and stay out of politics and go off to some estate in Russia that would actually be like a separate state it would be like the Vatican, Putin would live a comfortable life on the estate and for his protection be permitted to have an Army numbering fifteen thousand soldiers for ten years than dropping to ten thousand soldiers he wouldn't be permitted an air force or nuclear or weapons of mass destruction but would be permitted heavy weapons only in numbers sufficient for defense. He would get amnesty for all past crimes and wouldn't be able to be prosecuted for future crimes but if found to have done such serious future crimes he would not be permitted to leave his estate in Russia. He would never be able to be extradited to face international criminal tribunals and this whole arrangement would end in fifty years or when he dies. The same deal would be made for Prigozhin because although he isn't nearly as bad as Putin what he did at Bakhmut bringing about the death of twenty thousand Russians through barbaric behavior using these former prisoners as artillery fodder and to bait or smoke out Ukrainian fighters in divulging their location will cause some Russians to forever try to bring about his prosecution, so he needs protection here. To forever stopping a strongman from arising up in Russia this barebones constitution would limit the size of any future central government's army and intelligence and law enforcement forces. Further, to have a check on a tyrant rising up in the central government divide Russia into three sections call them province regions and the only purpose of these province regions is to have a sizable army to provide defense of the country or if the central government becomes a dictatorship to dismantle the central government's army and police and security services. The constitution would also adopt a federalism approach like the U.S. has toward the criminal justice system where the provinces each have their own criminal justice system which the central government cannot interfere with so corrupt people could be prosecuted in the province system if the central government became corrupt and was supporting this corruption through non-prosecution. The constitution would ban all present and past members of Russia's legislatures from holding national or provincial elected office again if they had the character to support and facilitate Putin's corrupt government they are deemed forever untrustworthy to hold public office again. The constitution would also mandate this bare bones part of Russia's constitution could not be amended for fifty years so to stop any reneging on the deal and the balance of the constitution would create a path to hold fair elections and the formation and adoption of an entire constitution.
Until Putin agrees to this government transition Prigozhin should not embark on a full blown civil war and creating the massive blood shed that would ensue he should try to avoid squaring off with Putin loyal units and try to avoid going to Moscow if it would involve a big battle. What Prigozhin should do is fully get control of the provinces near Ukraine and then whittle away at the Putin's structure of government. Publicize images along with the names and addresses of the leaders of Putin's police force and intelligence services and key Putin allies in the Russian legislature and call for their assassination and help the individuals and groups willing to carry such out. Successful grass root rebellions often involve killing the leaders of important entities of their enemy, copy that. Prigozhin should get control of as much of Russia's natural resource production as possible and take the revenue for such selling to fund their overthrow effort. Prigozhin should offer the Russian public an alternative to Putin propaganda in the media. Prigozhin should just be patient once he gives the Russian people a revolt option to Putin the goodness in people's human nature will take over and they will begin to fight the corruption and their efforts will grow until Russian authorities begin to take steps to implement the Russian public's wishes!
Why should Prigozhin pursue the protest and government change option because he is already a dead man the means and time and place for his death haven't been selected but those incidental's definitely will be. Prigozhin you are a man of the streets you have been in prison you know there is a code about living in such environments and you broke the code for living in an environment where there is a strongman the code is you don't threaten his authority and you don't make him significantly weaker. Prigozhin your mutiny and rebellion this past weekend not only threatened Putin's position as head of Russia you made him look weak Putin's army didn't protect him by confronting the Wagner forces and the Russian public cheered his enemies. Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin is going to kill you and his desire to kill you is as much if not more so any such desire Putin had to kill anyone in his life and this guy has directly killed thousands in his life. Going to Belarus isn't going to save Yevgeny's neck, Putin is in control of that country as if it was a province of Russia. Yevgeny's only option for survival is to sideline Putin before he has a chance to carry out his plans and causing Putin to permanently step down from power would suffice to sideline Putin.
Why should Putin agree to the deal if Prigozhin pulls the trigger and leads the willing parts of the Russian army out of Ukraine. Because if Putin tries to neutralize this Prigozhin effort and let us for sake of argument say he does the Russian troops near Moscow rally behind Vladimir and go down and wipe out Yevgeny's forces in Ukraine and for the cherry on the top kill Yevgeny Prigozhin. Putin is still left with a war in Russia he cannot win, Ukraine and her allies have built a great Ukrainian army sure Russia has put up major defenses minefield and artillery and formidable air power and Ukraine's counter offensive will be costly to Ukraine and take time but Russian defenses are not enough to stop Ukraine. Ukraine began its counteroffensive around three weeks ago and one major obstacle is the Russian attack helicopter KA-52 "The Alligator" it has medium range ground to air missiles that can take out tanks and these missiles allow the helicopter to be flown outside the range of the shoulder fired manpads Ukrainian forces have but this is not a permanent obstacle Ukraine's allies are getting medium range SAM systems for the Ukraine military to protect the troops on Ukraine's front lines of their counteroffensive. Yesterday I heard retired General Ben Hodges and today retired General Jack Keane and there is probably a lot of other military experts saying the same thing that if Ukraine was given what it is asking for which is not unreasonable the war would be over in like a year with Ukraine winning. The bottom line and this is from America's experience with the tragedy of Vietnam where a large part of a whole generation of American soldiers were seriously hurt physically and psychologically over an unjust war, America propping up a corrupt Vietnam government. If Putin continues with this futile war in Ukraine he is just going to end up with a generation of lots of killed and physically/mentally wounded Russians and their angry families and friends which provides fertile ground for a young charismatic authoritative leader to rise up and take power from Putin where what most likely will unfold is Putin being killed or put in jail for life. Better and more prudent for Putin to negotiate his exit from the national and international stage, he'll get a better deal!
