a.times.com
August 4, 2012
"***Sixty-eight pashas (a title used for military and civil officers) are locked up in jail facing charges of treason. The meeting on Wednesday was called to decide on the annual promotions of the Turkish top brass, but the choice was severely limited, since something like 40 generals out of the 68 happen to be in the "promotion zone" but cannot be considered for promotion since they are in jail. The Turkish commentator Murat Yetkin surveyed the scandalous situation:
"Last year, Chief of General Staff Isik Kosaner resigned along with three force commanders in protest at the arrests. That puts even more pressure on the current Chief of Staff General Necdet Ozel, who is already under pressure because of the arrest of a former Chief of Staff, Ilker Basburg. Basburg has been accused of being the "chief of a terrorist organization". Another former Chief of Staff Hilmi Ozkok is expected to appear before the Istanbul criminal court today [Thursday]."
Ozkok has since pleaded that he was indeed aware of two possible coup plots hatched against the elected government by the Pashas during the period 2003-2004. But he went on to rationalize: "When the AKP [Erdogan's Justice and Development Party] came to power, the Turkish Armed Forces staff, including me, had concerns. Taking into consideration the [AKP officials'] statements in the past, we were worried about whether Turkey would roll back to old days [read Islamism]. We began discussing these issues. In the army everyone expresses their opinions even if they think differently from each other, this is normal, but they obey the chief of General Staff's orders in the end."
Erdogan has a formidable challenge on his hands - he is being exhorted by Obama for taking quick military action to expel Bashar, while the Turkish army itself is sinking into a morass, as Ozkok's testimony gets played out in the coming days and weeks in army barracks across Anatolia.
Meanwhile, Kurdish separatists watching from mountain hideouts have opened another front near the remote eastern town of Sendinli located in the tricky tri-junction between Turkey, Iraq and Iran. Turkish army has been fighting there for a week.
*** Both Obama and Erdogan are agreed that the Syrian crisis should end soon. Obama seems to think that if Erdogan can be persuaded to "do more" - to borrow from the US exhortation to Pakistan - the civil war will end and a "new Syria" can take shape. Just like that.
But Erdogan has a problem here. He has an "operational" problem, given the disarray in the Turkish military, and increasingly, perhaps, a political problem as well.
Turkey's military machinery needs to be toned up first, which takes time, and now Gul has opened a dicey political front. Syria is becoming a dangerous minefield for Erdogan. A perceptive and experienced Turkish security analyst, Nihat Ozcan, recently peered into Syria through the looking glass:
"In my opinion, we need to ask four questions to understand how the Syria model will be at the end of the process. Firstly, what does the changing character of the war mean in analyses? Secondly, how does the proxy war affect political development and the time period? Thirdly, how does the deep sociological division among the people in Syria shape the problem? Fourthly, if there is no authority or sufficient power and desire to end the interference, how will Syria turn out?"
Ozcan sees the insurgency masterminded from Turkey expanding rapidly into a civil war. ***.
Indeed, the rebels would never be a fully disciplined and regular armed force, which in turn opens the prospect of a war continuing "without front, irregular, facade, brutal and no rule and no moral block," and seriously threatening the future of Syria.
Again, this is a "proxy war" involving outsiders, which implies that it will be simply within no one's capacity to bring an end to the war anytime soon. ***.
Simply put, Erdogan is highly likely to find himself trapped in a Syrian quagmire unless he exercised circumspection about these increasingly rare trans-Atlantic phone calls. (Obama and Erdogan apparently spoke on the phone 13 times last year whereas, they have had only two phone conversations so far in 2012.) Ozcan's gloomy message is that the "future picture" of Syria leaves little for Erdogan to be complacent about."
