Clinton Ohio - Swing State Series

[presonorek]

Hillary Clinton has given up on Ohio. She is no longer employing resources to Ohio. I think the voters will notice. I think Ohio will go red.

 

[presonorek]

Sorry. My swing state series have gotten out of order. Nobody seemed interested in discussing it anyways. People prefer living in their preferred delusion that one candidate or the other will win.

This election will be decided by the electoral vote. Just because everybody you meet is voting for Trump doesn't mean that's the experience everybody else in the country is having. Just because everybody you meet is voting for Hillary doesn't mean that's the experience everybody else in the country is having. There are 50 states and only about 15 of them even matter. The remainder are just taken for granted.

 

[The Irish Ram]

Yes and I am committed. Or should be committed, depending on who you ask.

 

[presonorek]

Yes and I am committed. Or should be committed, depending on who you ask.

If you get new information that changes your mind then you can change your guess. Some people are afraid to guess because they are afraid of being wrong. A few days ago I thought Hillary was going to take Ohio. I have since changed my prediction. I might change my prediction 4 or 5 times between now and the election.

 

[baileyn45]

I live in Ohio and normally I would have an anecdotal feeling about which way elections will go. This one's weird. Talking to some young folks that I normally would expect to go dem sound very anti Hillary, while some run of the mill republicans sound very anti Trump. Gonna be interesting if nothing else. If I had to say there was one thing that stands out it would be that I wouldn't be surprised by record 3rd party vote.

 

[presonorek]

If I had to say there was one thing that stands out it would be that I wouldn't be surprised by record 3rd party vote.

It's going to be tough for a 3rd party candidate to out perform Ross Perot's 1992 run for president. He got 18% of the vote.

It's going to be tough for a 3rd party candidate to out perform George Wallace's 1968 run for president. He got 46 electoral votes.

I'd be totally surprised to see a third party candidate break either of those records in 2016.

 

[baileyn45]

If I had to say there was one thing that stands out it would be that I wouldn't be surprised by record 3rd party vote.

It's going to be tough for a 3rd party candidate to out perform Ross Perot's 1992 run for president. He got 18% of the vote.

It's going to be tough for a 3rd party candidate to out perform George Wallace's 1968 run for president. He got 46 electoral votes.

I'd be totally surprised to see a third party candidate break either of those records in 2016.

Good points, I guess I forgot how well Perot had done and I have to admit I didn't know Wallace had accomplished that. I guess I'll have to retract the record part and just say higher than usual.

 

[presonorek]

Whoops! I forgot. We haven't had a president elected since 1972 that lost Ohio and won the presidency. Trump could actually win. Things are changing up around here.