Odds of WWIII

[Donald H]

The Ukrainians beg to differ. The only difference is it was taken earlier.

The Ukraine has been beaten down to the status of begging.

Only America will do the deciding from here on out.

America has everything to lose by postponing the inevitable.

Or, optimistically, America has another trick in its bag that falls short of being the 'critical' escalation?

 

[martybegan]

The German tanks on the Russian soil is a pretty good indication of the German expansionism for the Russians.

Plenty of other countries have shipped weapons to Ukraine, not just Germany.

Still Ukrainians operating them mostly, with any other people of other nationalities there without government support or approval.

 

[martybegan]

The Ukraine has been beaten down to the status of begging.

Only America will do the deciding from here on out.

America has everything to lose by postponing the inevitable.

Or, optimistically, America has another trick in its bag that falls short of being the 'critical' escalation?

They have been "begging" since day one, asking for material and money aid.

Nothing has changed since then.

 

[Donald H]

Right now I'm not sure that the Russians eager to start the negotiations even if the USA suggest to discuss status of Alaska.

Russia is always going to agree to negotiate peace. They didn't want this war and they don't want war with America that doesn't include agreed upon limitations.

And America equally doesn't want that either.

 

[Donald H]

Russia was at the peace table in March 2022. It’s hard to imagine they have much trust and faith in the current US regime after they ordered Ukraine to walk away

Yes, it bears repeating even that which we should all know by now!

Take note too that there is no real counter argument coming that's on behalf of the Ukraine.

There's only the prospect of Ukraine's terrorist attacks going on for years.

 

[Silver Cat]

Someday Russia will simply have to learn to accept that Ukraine is no longer part of Russia or a Russian Federation.

Or, much more likely, Ukraine will learn that they are a part of Russia again.

Poor old England had to learn that America was a free and sovereign nation. It took some time and a couple of wars. But eventually, they had no choice but to cave in.

But they can't stop their attempts of manipulation of the USA.

Ditto what England had to learn with India.

Ukraine is not "Russian India". Ukraine is more likely "Russian Texas". I can imagine a situation in which Washington may accept formal independence of Texas, but there is no possible situation in which Yanks can accept discrimination and genocide of English-speaking population as well as Russian or Chinese forces in Texas.

Russia is going to need to suck it up and accept certain realities. They failed to learn it earlier. They then waged war. But they had calculated very badly.

They had calculated many scenarios. The current one isn't worst.

Overall, I think you’re correct. But sometimes, things change.

 

[Silver Cat]

Russia is always going to agree to negotiate peace.

The only question is the terms of the peace.

They didn't want this war and they don't want war with America that doesn't include agreed upon limitations.

There are millions of them. Some of them want the war, some of them want an acceptable peace.

And America equally doesn't want that either.

America doesn't want to send money and weapons for feeding the unwinnable war or support a neo-nazi regime somewhere in the Eastern Europe. But Biden doesn't care about what American people actually wants.

 

[Donald H]

The only question is the terms of the peace.



There are millions of them. Some of them want the war, some of them want an acceptable peace.

You're forgetting that only Putin wanted the war.

America doesn't want to send money and weapons for feeding the unwinnable war or support a neo-nazi regime somewhere in the Eastern Europe. But Biden doesn't care about what American people actually wants.

The Ukraine has already lost the war.

America hasn't lost the war.

In actual fact, America won't be at risk of losing the war until it needs to face the fact that it's facing a united Russia/China/the Brics alliance.

Can any other American cause be floated as the reason for the war against Russia and the expenditure of hundreds of billions of dollars?

1. To defeat the advance of communism in the Soviet Union? (snicker)

2. ..............................

 

[Silver Cat]

Plenty of other countries have shipped weapons to Ukraine, not just Germany.

You see, the Germans (and other Europeans) had killed forty million of Russian previous time. It's a quite traumatic historical experience, even if the Russians don't recognize it.

Still Ukrainians operating them mostly, with any other people of other nationalities there without government support or approval.

You see, from the Russian point of view there are, say, three gradations of the Ukrainians:
1. Ukrainians (Borderlanders) - just ordinary Russian people, living in the Borderland. They have their own regional features, but who doesn't?
2. Khokhols (forelocks) - Russian people who say that they are not Russian people, who invented their own "identity". Funny, but almost harmless weirdos (from the Russian point of view).
3. Banderovchi (Ukrainian Nazi Collaborants) - hired by the Western invaders mercenaries, traitors of the Russian people. They are either hired guns or rabid dogs. Both of them hardly can be responsible for their behavior. Their recruiters are. You pay money, you give them weapons - you are responsible for their behavior.

 

[martybegan]

You see, the Germans (and other Europeans) had killed forty million of Russian previous time. It's a quite traumatic historical experience, even if the Russians don't recognize it.


You see, from the Russian point of view there are, say, three gradations of the Ukrainians:
1. Ukrainians (Borderlanders) - just ordinary Russian people, living in the Borderland. They have their own regional features, but who doesn't?
2. Khokhols (forelocks) - Russian people who say that they are not Russian people, who invented their own "identity". Funny, but almost harmless weirdos (from the Russian point of view).
3. Banderovchi (Ukrainian Nazi Collaborants) - hired by the Western invaders mercenaries, traitors of the Russian people. They are either hired guns or rabid dogs. Both of them hardly can be responsible for their behavior. Their recruiters are. You pay money, you give them weapons - you are responsible for their behavior.

They can think that all they want, or you can think they think that all you want, it doesn't change the objective realities of both sides' war goals and the achievability of those goals in the framework of conflict resolution.

 

[BackAgain]

Or, much more likely, Ukraine will learn that they are a part of Russia again.


But they can't stop their attempts of manipulation of the USA.


Ukraine is not "Russian India". Ukraine is more likely "Russian Texas". I can imagine a situation in which Washington may accept formal independence of Texas, but there is no possible situation in which Yanks can accept discrimination and genocide of English-speaking population as well as Russian or Chinese forces in Texas.


They had calculated many scenarios. The current one isn't worst.

Sure.

 

[Silver Cat]

You're forgetting that only Putin wanted the war.

Of course, no. There are plenty of people who really wants the war. And plenty of people who want the acceptable peace, which means the elimination of Neo-Nazi Kievan regime.

The Ukraine has already lost the war.

America hasn't lost the war.

It depends on your definitions of the terms. For example, American households already lost, say, 6% of their wealth.

 

[Donald H]

Sure.

Stick around as the last Ukraine backer to be patronized for his loyalty.

 

[Silver Cat]

They can think that all they want, or you can think they think that all you want, it doesn't change the objective realities of both sides' war goals and the achievability of those goals in the framework of conflict resolution.

Their goals depends on what do they think. And it's pretty possible that the Russians may decide that they need to denazificate Germany (with active usage of nuclear weapons, of course), even if it means, say, death of twenty million of the Russians.
As a friend of mine said - "What can be better than burn down German tanks? Only burn down German cities. "

 

[martybegan]

Their goals depends on what do they think. And it's pretty possible that the Russians may decide that they need to denazificate Germany (with active usage of nuclear weapons, of course), even if it means, say, death of twenty million of the Russians.
As a friend of mine said - "What can be better than burn down German tanks? Only burn down German cities. "

 

[Donald H]

It depends on your definitions of the terms. For example, American households already lost, say, 6% of their wealth.

The only important loss for America is the big loss that a China/Russia alliance brings.

All of America's wars were costly but they all can be justified and rationalized as money well spent.

The prospect of breaking up Russia is still alive and hence this war could become the most rational expenditure that America has ever pursued. It's the culmination of all of America's wars of aggression since the end of WW2!

 

[toomuchtime_]

The only important loss for America is the big loss that a China/Russia alliance brings.

All of America's wars were costly but they all can be justified and rationalized as money well spent.

The prospect of breaking up Russia is still alive and hence this war could become the most rational expenditure that America has ever pursued. It's the culmination of all of America's wars of aggression since the end of WW2!

There is no China-Russa partnership on the issue of Ukraine. China agreed with the others at the recent summit in Jeddah that Ukraine's territorial integrity must be restored, meaning that Russia must leave Ukraine, and China has recently banned the sale of dual use items to Russia.

Russia will break up because of this war for the same reason the USSR broke up, it's economy cannot support its imperialist ambitions.

 

[Silver Cat]

The only important loss for America is the big loss that a China/Russia alliance brings.

Actually, the BRICS alliance get richer.

All of America's wars were costly but they all can be justified and rationalized as money well spent.

Actually, too many of our war were just an economic leak.

The prospect of breaking up Russia is still alive and hence this war could become the most rational expenditure that America has ever pursued. It's the culmination of all of America's wars of aggression since the end of WW2!

Russia became richer and stronger. That's the problem. And what is even more important - one hardly can find a better way to consolidate the Russian society than demonstrate them German tanks (and Ukrainian Nazi-Collaborants) on the Russian soil.

 

[Silver Cat]

There is no China-Russa partnership on the issue of Ukraine. China agreed with the others at the recent summit in Jeddah that Ukraine's territorial integrity must be restored, meaning that Russia must leave Ukraine, and China has recently banned the sale of dual use items to Russia.

Oh, it's just a wishful thinking.

Russia will break up because of this war for the same reason the USSR broke up, it's economy cannot support its imperialist ambitions.

Actually no. Warsaw pact and USSR broke up mostly because Reagan suggested more or less acceptable terms of the peaceful coexistence (which included no NATO expansion). But with the actual threat to their very existence the Russians are consolidating.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Oh, it's just a wishful thinking.


Actually no. Warsaw pact and USSR broke up mostly because Reagan suggested more or less acceptable terms of the peaceful coexistence (which included no NATO expansion). But with the actual threat to their very existence the Russians are consolidating.

Once again you show it is impossible for you to put up a post without lyng.

Gorbachev replied: “The topic of ‘NATO expansion’ was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. … Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement was made in that context… Everything that could have been and needed to be done to solidify that political obligation was done. And fulfilled.”

Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says "No"

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it well known his antipathy towards NATO, claiming the Alliance took advantage of Russian weakness after the collapse of the Soviet Union in violation of promises allegedly made to Moscow by Western leaders. Steven Pifer argues that no such promises were...

www.brookings.edu