Odds of WWIII

[CrusaderFrank]

Ukraine is lost, there is just no getting around it.

Given the Kamikaze like devotion to the Ukrainian Money Laundering Operation, there is just no possibility that the US (Obama, Biden Body Double, Nuland, Blinken, McConnell, McCarthy, et. al.) can admit a mistake and make peace. The Biden Body Doubles have already started to campaign!

The only course of action is to double down on a losing hand. There is no possibility that the democrat Party can campaign on: we started by surrendering Afghanistan, and ending our first term surrendering Ukraine.

In March 2022, the USA killed a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Most recently Americans have been ordered to leave Belarus and Biden authoritized combat pay for Americans in Ukraine….WTF?

 

[BackAgain]

I have no idea whether Ukraine is lost.

I’d prefer to think that this war has proved so costly (lives, materiel, international status, economy and so forth) to Putin and Russia that they will have to eventually concede that they need to agree to peace talks. And they will walk away with less land than they began their aggression with.

But time will tell.

All that said, I agree with those who maintain that Zelensky isn’t exactly on the side of the angels.

 

[mamooth]

Ukraine is lost, there is just no getting around it.

From this thread, we know that Russia is really desperate over their battlefield failures. Why else would they be scraping bottom with the trolls they use?

 

[Donald H]

America won't start a nuclear war after investing hundreds of billions in a conventional war that's meant to break up Russia's superpower status.

Careful consideration is against Russia starting a nuclear war because the job is done by the use of conventional weapons.

The wild card is America accepting the loss when it means that it will now need to face Russia/China as a united Brics.

 

[martybegan]

I have no idea whether Ukraine is lost.

I’d prefer to think that this war has proved so costly (lives, materiel, international status, economy and so forth) to Putin and Russia that they will have to eventually concede that they need to agree to peace talks. And they will walk away with less land than they began their aggression with.

But time will tell.

All that said, I agree with those who maintain that Zelensky isn’t exactly on the side of the angels.

The sticking point will be the Crimea, both sides can't walk away without it.

 

[BackAgain]

The sticking point will be the Crimea, both sides can't walk away without it.

I’m an optimist. I see tons of opportunity for compromise. When both sides walk away feeling partially vindicated and partially aggrieved, we might have a resolution.

 

[Donald H]

Ukraine is lost, there is just no getting around it.

Given the Kamikaze like devotion to the Ukrainian Money Laundering Operation, there is just no possibility that the US (Obama, Biden Body Double, Nuland, Blinken, McConnell, McCarthy, et. al.) can admit a mistake and make peace. The Biden Body Doubles have already started to campaign!

The only course of action is to double down on a losing hand. There is no possibility that the democrat Party can campaign on: we started by surrendering Afghanistan, and ending our first term surrendering Ukraine.

In March 2022, the USA killed a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Most recently Americans have been ordered to leave Belarus and Biden authoritized combat pay for Americans in Ukraine….WTF?

Start thinking how a peace deal might be possible if it makes allowance for America being able to politically spin the facts on the ground as a win.

The Crimea can be conceded to Russia on paper with little difficulty on account of that being Zelensky's pipedream.

As for the Donbass, Russia doesn't want it but Russia does want their solution that was possible in March 22. That doesn't need to be seen as a concession to Russia, it can be a solution that was always possible. It can be spun as Russia's need to go to war when there never was a need.

Having said all of the above, Russia still has to be willing and that's risky if the peace attempts are made when Russia still holds all the marbles.

 

[martybegan]

I’m an optimist. I see tons of opportunity for compromise. When both sides walk away feeling partially vindicated and partially aggrieved, we might have a resolution.

It would be just a break in the conflict, and not a resolution. Clauswitz defined resolution of a conflict as removing the reasons for the conflict, not just one or both sides deciding to stop fighting.

WWI wasn't a resolution of the issues of German Nationalism and expansionism, but WWII sure as hell was.

 

[BackAgain]

It would be just a break in the conflict, and not a resolution. Clauswitz defined resolution of a conflict as removing the reasons for the conflict, not just one or both sides deciding to stop fighting.

WWI wasn't a resolution of the issues of German Nationalism and expansionism, but WWII sure as hell was.

Someday Russia will simply have to learn to accept that Ukraine is no longer part of Russia or a Russian Federation.

Poor old England had to learn that America was a free and sovereign nation. It took some time and a couple of wars. But eventually, they had no choice but to cave in.

Ditto what England had to learn with India.

Russia is going to need to suck it up and accept certain realities. They failed to learn it earlier. They then waged war. But they had calculated very badly.

Overall, I think you’re correct. But sometimes, things change.

 

[Donald H]

The sticking point will be the Crimea, both sides can't walk away without it.

No, the Crimea was never a question and it's therefore the only real issue that could push Russia to nuclear war. The Crimea is as much Russia as is Moscow.

The Crimea can never be forfeited by Russia on account of it's strategic importance to Russia.

America can find a way to spin that as not necessary for negotiations to begin.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

From this thread, we know that Russia is really desperate over their battlefield failures. Why else would they be scraping bottom with the trolls they use?

Ukraine is done, finito. The counter offensive is another failure. Russia has done rope a dope and unfortunately for Ukrainian soldiers they threw themselves at well defended positions. Ukrainian losses are 350,000 to 400,000 dead in UNDER 2 years!

Your buddies at the CIA Schruted it - Yugely! They said Russia is a paper tiger and BlackRock should close on their Ukraine acquisition by summer 2022, with Russia in ruins

Ukraine needs a Prigozhin! Instead of certain death fighting the Russians, Ukrainian soldiers need to overthrow the regime in Kiev and make peace with Russia and begin rebuilding their nation

 

[CrusaderFrank]

No, the Crimea was never a question and it's therefore the only real issue that could push Russia to nuclear war. The Crimea is as much Russia as is Moscow.

The Crimea can never be forfeited by Russia on account of it's strategic importance to Russia.

America can find a way to spin that as not necessary for negotiations to begin.

See, you’re making sense. I wish that the people in DC were as sensible

 

[Silver Cat]

It would be just a break in the conflict, and not a resolution. Clauswitz defined resolution of a conflict as removing the reasons for the conflict, not just one or both sides deciding to stop fighting.

WWI wasn't a resolution of the issues of German Nationalism and expansionism, but WWII sure as hell was.

WWII was a temporary solution, too. Nowadays, as we can see, German expansionism was resurrected. So, WWIII is inevitable.

 

[martybegan]

Someday Russia will simply have to learn to accept that Ukraine is no longer part of Russia or a Russian Federation.

Poor old England had to learn that America was a free and sovereign nation. It took some time and a couple of wars. But eventually, they had no choice but to cave in.

Ditto what England had to learn with India.

Russia is going to need to suck it up and accept certain realities. They failed to learn it earlier. They then waged war. But they had calculated very badly.

Overall, I think you’re correct. But sometimes, things change.

I don't think the current Russian leadership is capable of giving up entirely. They gotta go before an actual peaceful resolution can be reached.

Still a cease-fire would at least calm things down, at least for a couple of months.

 

[martybegan]

No, the Crimea was never a question and it's therefore the only real issue that could push Russia to nuclear war. The Crimea is as much Russia as is Moscow.

The Crimea can never be forfeited by Russia on account of it's strategic importance to Russia.

America can find a way to spin that as not necessary for negotiations to begin.

The Ukrainians beg to differ. The only difference is it was taken earlier.

 

[Donald H]

Ukraine needs a Prigozhin! Instead of certain death fighting the Russians, Ukrainian soldiers need to overthrow the regime in Kiev and make peace with Russia and begin rebuilding their nation

That hints at the possibility of the CIA assassinating Zelensky and attributing it to Russia.

But America's choice on which Ukrainian to install in his place will be with considerations to one of them that will betray the Nazi cause.

That way, the blame can be spun as the Ukraine's lack of commitment and not America's.

 

[martybegan]

WWII was a temporary solution, too. Nowadays, as we can see, German expansionism was resurrected. So, WWIII is inevitable.

Um... No.

Germany has no indications of wanting to cross the Oder-Niesse line.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Start thinking how a peace deal might be possible if it makes allowance for America being able to politically spin the facts on the ground as a win.

The Crimea can be conceded to Russia on paper with little difficulty on account of that being Zelensky's pipedream.

As for the Donbass, Russia doesn't want it but Russia does want their solution that was possible in March 22. That doesn't need to be seen as a concession to Russia, it can be a solution that was always possible. It can be spun as Russia's need to go to war when there never was a need.

Having said all of the above, Russia still has to be willing and that's risky if the peace attempts are made when Russia still holds all the marbles.

Russia was at the peace table in March 2022. It’s hard to imagine they have much trust and faith in the current US regime after they ordered Ukraine to walk away

 

[Silver Cat]

I’m an optimist. I see tons of opportunity for compromise. When both sides walk away feeling partially vindicated and partially aggrieved, we might have a resolution.

Right now I'm not sure that the Russians eager to start the negotiations even if the USA suggest to discuss status of Alaska.

 

[Silver Cat]

Um... No.

Germany has no indications of wanting to cross the Oder-Niesse line.

The German tanks on the Russian soil is a pretty good indication of the German expansionism for the Russians.