Odds of 'Blue Wave' Have just Collapsed

JimBowie1958

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Lol, this is so funny. Reality finally hits the betting community.



What has, however, changed is a dramatic shift in online polling sentiment regarding what until just days ago was a certainty that a "Blue Sweep" would take place.
As a reminder, it is a Blue Sweep - not just a Biden victory - that is instrumental for the reflation trade, or what BofA called the "Bullish Elevation" scenario, as only unified governance will enable the continued CARES Act-style economic support that can return the US economy to the levels achieved at the end of 2019 ("a step-change to 3%+ GDP & higher productivity requires major new investments in R&D, capex, and a broader base of household demand; such policy shifts "require bold leadership and a governing majority, not tepid incrementalism").
Well, for whatever reason - perhaps it just the latest newsflow, or that Trump gaining on Biden in key Battleground states to within a margin of error, various analyses from Marko Kolanovic, or just plain "optimism fatigue" - the Predictit odds of a Democratic Sweep have slumped from 62 cents two weeks ago to just 51 cents currently...

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my2¢

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Good, I'm rooting for stagnation. Per the article fiscal discipline is a bad thing and the best hope for the market is Biden along with a Democratic Senate.

And since online odds still have a Biden victory as virtually assured, the reason for the slide in
the chart above is the sudden surge in doubt that Democrats will wrest control of the Senate.
Only without the Senate, the key anchor of the "stimulus" and "reflation" trades is gone.

Indeed, political parties historically have used obstructionist tactics when out of power to thwart
key legislation, most often through the “rediscovery” of commitments to “fiscal discipline”.
As an example, BofA cites the budget austerity during 2012-2015 as a major reason for
the slow economic recovery.​
 

jackflash

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I'm predicting that the closer it gets to election time that the stated .51c is going to show up with a noticeable drop in value.
 

JoeB131

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Self-inflicted wound. There is no (good) excuse for this.
Sure there is. Mitlaufers like you let Trump do whatever he wanted as long as the Stock Market was good.

I mean, I'm glad you found your integrity, Mac, when you weren't whining about the Democrats not being more like the Republicans.
 

esalla

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Cryogenic capsule under area 51, I am not dead

esalla

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That page has been linked 200 times

Does hunter jerking himself off bother you?

Do you want your kids looking up to hunters crack smoking
Hunter isn't running for President. Also, most of those pictures are probably fake, but they're still porn and against the rules.
All of the pictures and videos are real, the bidens lawyer already ask for hunters hard drive back admitting ownership. Hell the bidens have not denied even one thing on the drive as of yet. You keep choking your chicken though, it's amusing
 

playtime

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Zero Hedge


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Sure there is. Mitlaufers like you let Trump do whatever he wanted as long as the Stock Market was good.

I mean, I'm glad you found your integrity, Mac, when you weren't whining about the Democrats not being more like the Republicans.
Yeah, pretty much nailed Mac there. He's such a phony. Almost as phony as the artificial market distortion itself.
 

my2¢

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Jeez, did this thread ever get sidetracked. The OP's article seems to assume the House of Representatives plays no role in determining how to play the market and indicates that those worshipping Wall Street's bronze bull should hope for a Biden presidency with a Democratic Senate ($$$). That's how I voted but went with keeping my House Republican representative in hopes of achieving my desired stagnation.

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JimBowie1958

JimBowie1958

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