Gold Supporting Member
- Sep 25, 2011
- Reaction score
- Fredericksburg, VA
Lol, this is so funny. Reality finally hits the betting community.
Is Wall Street's most "consensus" trade about to blow up?
What has, however, changed is a dramatic shift in online polling sentiment regarding what until just days ago was a certainty that a "Blue Sweep" would take place.
As a reminder, it is a Blue Sweep - not just a Biden victory - that is instrumental for the reflation trade, or what BofA called the "Bullish Elevation" scenario, as only unified governance will enable the continued CARES Act-style economic support that can return the US economy to the levels achieved at the end of 2019 ("a step-change to 3%+ GDP & higher productivity requires major new investments in R&D, capex, and a broader base of household demand; such policy shifts "require bold leadership and a governing majority, not tepid incrementalism").
Well, for whatever reason - perhaps it just the latest newsflow, or that Trump gaining on Biden in key Battleground states to within a margin of error, various analyses from Marko Kolanovic, or just plain "optimism fatigue" - the Predictit odds of a Democratic Sweep have slumped from 62 cents two weeks ago to just 51 cents currently...