Obama Plays.. Unemployment Card...?

[edthecynic]

The more people obama can shift into a benefit program the lower the unemployment figure. Theoretically he can get the unemployment rate to 0 with enough people on welfare.

And there you have it!!! The SS fund that Boomers paid into for all their lives is now WELFARE to the America-hating CON$.

 

[thereisnospoon]

Yes, you did quote actual totals from BLS; however, that's not what the graph was intended to portray. The graph, as it is labeled, is intended to portray the "Reductions in Workforce Participation by Age Group", or the change in participation between young and old for the period from 2007 and 2012. This was to refute the administration's argument that the change in workforce participation was the result of aging Baby Boomers retiring. The graph indicates that the reduction in participation was mainly occurring in the 16-54 age group. The table supporting this is as follows:

There is a further explanation included in the link that Jroc posted.

First of all, the liar does not give any links so there is no way to check the numbers.

Second the liar calculates all his numbers against a moronic "Constant Workforce Participation (CWP)" which does not exist in the real world because babies are not born at a constant rate!!! If they were we wouldn't even be discussing the Baby Boomers!!!!

And thirdly, even using his "change in workforce reductions" for each age, the link I provided shows that info for the year from April 2011 to April 2012 shows an even bigger "change" over the last year alone than the current % I used earlier.

The 16-24 age group changed in 1 year from 17.865 million to 18.216 million or 351 thousand.
The 25-54 group from 22.922 million to 23.224 million or 302 thousand.
The 55+ group changed from 45.836 million to 47.419 million or 1.583 million.

As a % change the 16-54 group increased 29% not 74% and the 55+ group increased 71% not 26% in just the last year!!! 71% of the people leaving the workforce last year were over 55 years old!!!!!!!!

Again I remind you that every right-wing "expert" has been saying for over a decade and to this very day that the Boomers will be retiring in greater numbers than the new workers entering the workforce to take their place as the reason for privatizing SS, so they know that my numbers and the BLS numbers I linked to are true, but they still invent this CWP bullshit anyway, which is why no honest person trusts any stat from CON$.

Here is the BLS age breakdown of the NILF for this last year again:

A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

I found the 2010 numbers so I can show the change from 2010 to 2011.
Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

The 16-24 age group changed from 17.014 million to 17.201 million or 187 thousand.
The 25-54 group from 22.350 million to 23.961 million or 611 thousand.
The 55+ group changed from 44.577 million to 45.839 million or 1.262 million.

As a % change the 16-54 group increased 39% not 74% and the 55+ group increased 61% not 26% from 2010 to 2011. 61% of the people leaving the workforce in 2011 were over 55 years old!!!!!!!!

So to recap, 61% of the people leaving the work force from 2010 to 2011 were over 55 and 71% of the people leaving the workforce from April 2011 to April 2012 were over 55. Obviously it is the retiring Boomers who account for the bulk of the changes in the NILF.

You can convince yourself six ways to Sunday that all is well.
The fact is public or more accurately voter perception is what decides elections.
The current perception is that the economy is stuck in a lull and the jobs market unimpressive.
These are going to be campaign issues from which Obama cannot run.
These and other issues may very well cost Obama the 2012 election.

 

[Chris]

Obama has added 4.1 million jobs since 2009.

Here’s what Bush left us with.....

Aug 2008 - 334,000 net JOBS LOST
Sep 2008 - 458,000 net JOBS LOST
Oct 2008 - 554,000 net JOBS LOST
Nov 2008 - 728,000 net JOBS LOST
Dec 2008 - 673,000 net JOBS LOST
Jan 2009 - 779,000 net JOBS LOST

 

[Chris]

We have just had the fastest 6 month drop in unemployment since 1984.

Obama is the Democrats Reagan.

 

[edthecynic]

First of all, the liar does not give any links so there is no way to check the numbers.

Second the liar calculates all his numbers against a moronic "Constant Workforce Participation (CWP)" which does not exist in the real world because babies are not born at a constant rate!!! If they were we wouldn't even be discussing the Baby Boomers!!!!

And thirdly, even using his "change in workforce reductions" for each age, the link I provided shows that info for the year from April 2011 to April 2012 shows an even bigger "change" over the last year alone than the current % I used earlier.

The 16-24 age group changed in 1 year from 17.865 million to 18.216 million or 351 thousand.
The 25-54 group from 22.922 million to 23.224 million or 302 thousand.
The 55+ group changed from 45.836 million to 47.419 million or 1.583 million.

As a % change the 16-54 group increased 29% not 74% and the 55+ group increased 71% not 26% in just the last year!!! 71% of the people leaving the workforce last year were over 55 years old!!!!!!!!

Again I remind you that every right-wing "expert" has been saying for over a decade and to this very day that the Boomers will be retiring in greater numbers than the new workers entering the workforce to take their place as the reason for privatizing SS, so they know that my numbers and the BLS numbers I linked to are true, but they still invent this CWP bullshit anyway, which is why no honest person trusts any stat from CON$.

Here is the BLS age breakdown of the NILF for this last year again:

A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

I found the 2010 numbers so I can show the change from 2010 to 2011.
Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

The 16-24 age group changed from 17.014 million to 17.201 million or 187 thousand.
The 25-54 group from 22.350 million to 23.961 million or 611 thousand.
The 55+ group changed from 44.577 million to 45.839 million or 1.262 million.

As a % change the 16-54 group increased 39% not 74% and the 55+ group increased 61% not 26% from 2010 to 2011. 61% of the people leaving the workforce in 2011 were over 55 years old!!!!!!!!

So to recap, 61% of the people leaving the work force from 2010 to 2011 were over 55 and 71% of the people leaving the workforce from April 2011 to April 2012 were over 55. Obviously it is the retiring Boomers who account for the bulk of the changes in the NILF.

You can convince yourself six ways to Sunday that all is well.
The fact is public or more accurately voter perception is what decides elections.
The current perception is that the economy is stuck in a lull and the jobs market unimpressive.
These are going to be campaign issues from which Obama cannot run.
These and other issues may very well cost Obama the 2012 election.

There you have it, CON$ervoFascists are CONfident that they will be able to deceive enough American voters no matter how much the economy improves.

CON$ believe that their talent for lying is on loan from Gawwwwd-da.

August 09, 2011
RUSH: Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen. Happy to have you along. I am Rush Limbaugh, your guiding light. Talent on loan from God-d. You have to say "God-d." You just can't say "talent on loan from God."

 

[Chris]

No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.

And none has won when the rate rose.

Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.

Last month, seven months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.

 

[edthecynic]

No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.

And none has won when the rate rose.

Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.

Last month, seven months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.

The UNADJUSTED rate was 7.7%
Remember, CON$ say the seasonally adjusted rate is cooked to favor Obama so the REAL rate is 7.7%!!!!!

February 16, 2012
RUSH: I'm starting to believe that "seasonally adjusted" is just code word "for manipulated to help incumbent presidents."
It's not just Obama. I think "seasonally adjusted" is designed to help the establishment, both parties in power, currently, in Washington.

 

[Jroc]

Under Barack Obama, unemployment has declined due to a drop in labor participation, not because of actual economic growth
By Mortimer B. Zuckerman

So don't be impressed by the fact that the most popular unemployment rate being bandied about dropped to 8.1 percent in April from 8.2 percent in March.

Progress? Not so. Paradoxically, the reason for the drop is negative, not positive. It is due solely to the fact that 342,000 discouraged workers who were seeking employment dropped out of the labor force and are no longer counted as unemployed. Without that withdrawal, the unemployment rate would have risen to 8.4 percent in April. In fact, if the labor force participation rate had remained where it was in June 2009, when the recession officially ended, the headline jobless rate would be north of 11 percent.

Every basis point decline in the unemployment rate, which peaked at 10 percent in October 2009, has been due to the drop in the labor force participation rate and not in the growth of real employment. A steady stream of men and women and young people got tired of looking for work that isn't there.

The 8.1 percent unemployment rate seized upon by the government and the media accounts only for those people who have actively looked for a job in the previous four weeks and haven't found one. It's called the U-3 rate. But there's a nastier categorization—the U-6 rate. It's the more relevant measure. Why? Because it covers those people who have actively applied for a job in the last six months and also accounts for not just full-time unemployment but for involuntary, part-time employment as well. That number is still at 14.5 percent, the highest it has ever been so far into a so-called economic recovery.

Not to mention that warm weather boosted winter employment in the first three months of the year—Goldman Sachs, for example, estimated at least 100,000 jobs—and much of that will wash out eventually. David Rosenberg, chief economist at the Gluskin Sheff wealth management firm, points out that if you strip out the sectors that should have benefited most from the balmy winter (the warmest since 1895), real GDP actually contracted at a 0.2 percent annual rate and final sales shrank by nearly 1 percent.


That's not all. There is a little-known category of job creation called the birth/death model, a seasonal adjustment in which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) arbitrarily adds jobs for net new companies it thinks are starting up and creating positions. Last month, the BLS made the assumption that 206,000 jobs were created in this category based on the companies that it thinks, but really can't prove, have just started up and essentially are invisible to government labor surveys. This is an imprecise, controversial guesstimate based on historical extrapolation. One must be skeptical, since this figure of 206,000 rose from 172,000 in April 2011 despite the obvious decline in economic activity this spring and the general lack of financing for start-up companies.

Right now, it looks as if the only people getting jobs are in the 55 and older cohort. According to the BLS household survey, employment for those age 55 and up has risen 3.8 million since the recession began in December 2007, whereas the ranks of the employed in the under-55 age cohort have shrunk by 8.2 million. But as aging baby boomers remain in their jobs, youth employment shrinks; the unemployment rate for teenagers is now at 25 percent.


According to the BLS, job increases have been virtually cut in half this year alone, from 277,000 in January to 130,000 in April. But we need 150,000 new jobs each month just to keep up with new people trying to enter the labor force. Much of the job "growth" has been in sectors such as healthcare and tourism, low-wage work that hasn't been exposed to global competition. And perhaps as many as half of all new jobs have been part time. The result is some good jobs at the top and plenty at the bottom but not enough in the middle.

Needless to say, slack in the labor market is a drag on personal income growth. Americans' after-tax income in the first three months rose just 0.6 percent from a year earlier, the skimpiest increase in over two years. Average weekly earnings are up roughly 2 percent over the last 12 months, but inflation has climbed by 3 percent, which means real incomes have dropped and forced workers to save less in order to keep up their spending. No wonder many of the big retailers such as Costco and Target were reporting sales below expectations, and April chain store sales slowed to a plus 2.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. Quite simply, income inevitably drives the trend in spending.

Obama's 'Less Economy': Americans Facing Less Work, Less Reward - US News and World Report

 

[edthecynic]

Under Barack Obama, unemployment has declined due to a drop in labor participation, not because of actual economic growth
By Mortimer B. Zuckerman

Every basis point decline in the unemployment rate, which peaked at 10 percent in October 2009, has been due to the drop in the labor force participation rate and not in the growth of real employment. A steady stream of men and women and young people got tired of looking for work that isn't there.

Obama's 'Less Economy': Americans Facing Less Work, Less Reward - US News and World Report

Like I have shown many many times before, CON$ervoFascists ALWAYS lie in packs.

According to the BLS, in Oct 2009 there were 808,000 discouraged workers. In April 2012 there were 968,000 discouraged workers. The 160,000 difference in discouraged workers is not even remotely large enough to reduce the U-3 unemployment rate from 10.2% to 8.2%.

The reality is the vast majority of people leaving the workforce are Boomers retiring not discouraged workers, and every worthless lying scum CON$ervoFascist POS knows it!!!

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Obama has added 4.1 million jobs since 2009.

Here’s what Bush left us with.....

Aug 2008 - 334,000 net JOBS LOST
Sep 2008 - 458,000 net JOBS LOST
Oct 2008 - 554,000 net JOBS LOST
Nov 2008 - 728,000 net JOBS LOST
Dec 2008 - 673,000 net JOBS LOST
Jan 2009 - 779,000 net JOBS LOST

See what happens when obama and the democrats took control of the house and senate?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.

And none has won when the rate rose.

Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.

Last month, seven months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.

The obama labor department is doing all they can do to make the numbers drop look legit

 

[pinqy]

No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.

And none has won when the rate rose.

Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.

Last month, seven months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.

The obama labor department is doing all they can do to make the numbers drop look legit

How? Give the full process: data collection to release and explain when and how you think the numbers are manipulated. Funny how no one can ever answer that...it's all non-specific.

 

[Lumpy 1]

No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.

And none has won when the rate rose.

Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.

Last month, seven months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.

The obama labor department is doing all they can do to make the numbers drop look legit

How? Give the full process: data collection to release and explain when and how you think the numbers are manipulated. Funny how no one can ever answer that...it's all non-specific.

psssst.. we would tell you but you wouldn't listen anyway...

 

[pinqy]

The obama labor department is doing all they can do to make the numbers drop look legit

How? Give the full process: data collection to release and explain when and how you think the numbers are manipulated. Funny how no one can ever answer that...it's all non-specific.

psssst.. we would tell you but you wouldn't listen anyway...

Oh, I would listen, then I would provide quotes and links to the technical documentation to show you're wrong.

You are just weaseling.

 

[Jroc]

One in Three Young U.S. Workers Are Underemployed

PRINCETON, NJ -- Thirty-two percent of 18- to 29-year-olds in the U.S. workforce were underemployed in April, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment. This is up from 30.1% in March and is slightly higher than the 30.7% of a year ago.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted with 28,215 Americans throughout April, including 2,864 respondents aged 18 to 29.

Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work. Underemployment among 18- to 29-year-olds has hovered around 30% for most of the past year, showing no real improvement. Underemployment among all Americans has declined over the past year to 18.2% in April from 19.3% in April 2011.

Young adults were more than twice as likely as those in older age groups to be underemployed in April. Underemployment in April was 14.0% among those aged 30 to 49, 13.6% among those aged 50 to 64, and 12.7% among those 65 or older.

Young adults continue to be much more likely than average to be unemployed; their 13.6% rate in April compares with 7.0% in the 30 to 49 age group, 6.2% among those aged 50 to 64, and 4.9% among those 65 or older.

More Now Than at Any Time in Past Year Working Part Time, Looking for Full-Time Job

Another 18.4% of young adults in the workforce were working part time but wanting to work full time in April. This is up from 17.5% in March and 17.1% in April a year ago, and is the highest percentage of part-time young employees looking for full-time work seen during the past year.

One in Three Young U.S. Workers Are Underemployed

 

[edthecynic]

No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.

And none has won when the rate rose.

Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.

Last month, seven months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.

The obama labor department is doing all they can do to make the numbers drop look legit

Gee, apparently right-wing CON$ervative Christian Gallup is in on the scam too!!!

Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

 

[Jroc]

No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.

And none has won when the rate rose.

Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.

Last month, seven months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.

The obama labor department is doing all they can do to make the numbers drop look legit

Gee, apparently right-wing CON$ervative Christian Gallup is in on the scam too!!!

Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

So Gallup is "right wing"? CNN is "right wrong" Eddie you have no credibility you are a far leftist nutjob

 

[edthecynic]

The obama labor department is doing all they can do to make the numbers drop look legit

Gee, apparently right-wing CON$ervative Christian Gallup is in on the scam too!!!

Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

So Gallup is "right wing"? CNN is "right wrong" Eddie you have no credibility you are a far leftist nutjob

Everyone knows Gallup is a right-wing Born Again Christian, so how exactly does stating that unassailable fact take away from the fact that his numbers are essentially the same as "the Obama Labor Dept?"

You know you have your foot in your mouth so you can only divert rather than admit the BLS numbers are as accurate today as they were for Bush, which CON$ accept 100%!!!!!

 

[Jroc]

Gee, apparently right-wing CON$ervative Christian Gallup is in on the scam too!!!

Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

So Gallup is "right wing"? CNN is "right wrong" Eddie you have no credibility you are a far leftist nutjob

Everyone knows Gallup is a right-wing Born Again Christian, so how exactly does stating that unassailable fact take away from the fact that his numbers are essentially the same as "the Obama Labor Dept?"

You know you have your foot in your mouth so you can only divert rather than admit the BLS numbers are as accurate today as they were for Bush, which CON$ accept 100%!!!!!

CNN and Gallup are not rightwing sorry you're an idiot. the fact is that unemployment is historically very high all you stupid post aren't going to change that fact.

 

[The T]

So Gallup is "right wing"? CNN is "right wrong" Eddie you have no credibility you are a far leftist nutjob

Everyone knows Gallup is a right-wing Born Again Christian, so how exactly does stating that unassailable fact take away from the fact that his numbers are essentially the same as "the Obama Labor Dept?"

You know you have your foot in your mouth so you can only divert rather than admit the BLS numbers are as accurate today as they were for Bush, which CON$ accept 100%!!!!!

CNN and Gallup are not rightwing sorry you're an idiot. the fact is that unemployment is historically very high all you stupid post aren't going to change that fact.

Maybe Edith is operating under the banner of Pravda?