Unemployment Numbers Released - Post Pandemic High Unemployment & Downward Revisions

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I did, since macroeconomic analysis was my profession for 23+ years.

That's why I take this stuff seriously, and not as shallow hyperpartisan fodder.

Dismissed.

<flick>

Cool!

Do us a favor and tell the class what happens, when we have inflation, while maintaining inflationary policies, in the face of staggering job losses and devaluation of the dollar.

They don't seem to be getting it.

 

[Mac1958]

Cool!

Do us a favor and tell the class what happens, when we have inflation, while maintaining inflationary policies, in the face of staggering job losses and devaluation of the dollar.

They don't seem to be getting it.

Stagflation, theoretically. But I've long since learned not to make predictions. Ya never know.

Regardless, I no longer discuss macroeconomics with Trumpsters. It's depressing.

 

[my2¢]

ADP's Employment Report for November that came out a few weeks ago had the private sector losing 32,000 jobs. It stated,

• Job creation has been flat during the second half of 2025 and pay growth has been on a downward trend. November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction.

I don't see everything as political. Sure government policy plays a role in these things but there are other factors. There were supply chain shortages effecting inflation coming out of COVID. As for job losses this past year, some blame belongs to the emergence of AI.

 

[Marchimedes]

Who knew economics were so complicated?

I did, since macroeconomic analysis was my profession for 23+ years.

Macroeconomic analysists don't understand sarcasm?

That's why I take this stuff seriously, and not as shallow hyperpartisan fodder.

Dismissed.

<flick>

I guess taking it seriously and being able to debate it is two(2) different things.

 

[Marchimedes]

Anyone know why gas is up 50 cents a gallon in the last 5 days?

Your gas station sees you coming and raises the price.

Or you live in California.

 

[Marchimedes]

Well I am making out like a bandit. I got a $30,000 tax cut in my taxes and will be paying a few thousand in tariffs. Now the middle and lower class folks are upside down but, hey, who gives a shit about them? I dont. They seem to want me to really make out in this economy at their expense. It is also blowing up the deficit but since I will only live another 40-50 years or so... who cares?

Impact on Income Tiers (Based on 2025-2027 Projections):

• Ultra-Wealthy (Top 1%): Receive substantial benefits, with average tax cuts potentially reaching tens of thousands of dollars annually, boosting their income significantly.
• Middle Class (Middle 20%-60%): See minimal gains, often just 0.8-1% in resources, which some analysts say is barely enough to keep up with rising costs, with tariffs offsetting much of the tax cut benefit.
• Working Class & Poorer Tiers (Bottom 40%-80%): Experience the smallest benefits; tariffs can exceed tax cuts, leading to a net reduction in resources, while some lowest earners could face higher effective taxes.

From...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/08/trump-tax-cuts-calculator-see-how-the-new-law-affects-your-pay.html?msockid=1d4b8d8fcbe16c4a09dd99f3ca106d59

• Up to $17,735: 2.6% increase in take-home pay
• $17,736–$38,572: 5.2% increase in take-home pay
• $38,573–$73,905: 5.7% increase in take-home pay
• $73,906–$130,661: 6.3% increase in take-home pay
• Above $130,661: 5.0% increase in take-home pay

Where'd you get your bull$h!t projections from?

 

[Lesh]

Stagflation, theoretically. But I've long since learned not to make predictions. Ya never know.

Regardless, I no longer discuss macroeconomics with Trumpsters. It's depressing.

Also a waste of time

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

We are at a deceptive inflection point in the economy. The inflation numbers are hollow. GDP numbers are inflated due a drastic drop in imports. Imports are subtracted from GDP.

Retailers paused as many imports as they could, while selling the inventory they had. They did so in hopes that Trump would soon walk back the tariffs that affect them, THEN they could start importing again.

Well, the inventory is running dry, and our fool president has made it clear he must be forced to drop the tariffs. So retailers have started importing again. And they are warning the country about the price hikes that are coming, basically, right now. They played a little game of chicken with each other while waiting Trump out, and now they have all blinked. Prices are going to increase quickly. GDP will "fall" quickly, as imports rise again. But, in reality, the lack of an observed contraction in the GDP already was a ruse, due to the strategic pause on imports by so many corporations.

Well over 1 million jobs have been lost, in 2025. Unemployment will be >5%, soon. That, itself, contracts GDP.

 

[Mac1958]

Also a waste of time

Yep, and I'm done trying.