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How has it worked? Well, in the first two years, the Democrats controlled Congress. they were able to pass:
Obamacare
Repeal DADT
Reduce nuclear weapons by one third
Economic Stimulus
Financial Reform
Credit card reform
In addition, Obama did as he promised and redirected the war on terror from Iraq to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Drone attacks are up and the number of terrorist targets eliminated are up substantially
In 2010, the Republicans took control of the House and gloated that they would now be able to block Obama from accomplishing anything in his last two years. How did it work out?
Obama hit a home run in killing Bin laden and now has captured intelligence to mop up Al Qaida operatives. He also begins withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq. He correctly positioned the US in a backup role in Libya and has allowed NATO forces to bear the load.
Now the GOP is stuck with no viable candidates for President and must show the voters what the GOP has accomplished in the last four years
The bulk of these items matter only to his base (which he needs to turn out much better than he did in the 2010 mid-terms). And, of course, some of these items also guarantee a good turnout against him-regardless of his opponent.
Now, it is way to early to be looking at this stuff but the most recent electoral map IÂ’ve seen has the democrats up at 247/180 with 111 undecided.
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » THE MAP
These figures assume that the democrats can hold New Mexico (5), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) and that the republicans can hold Missouri (10). So a more accurate count would have the democrats up by only 196/170 and that is simply WAY TO CLOSE TO CALL A FULL YEAR AND A HALF OUT FROM THE ELECTION.
That said, this election will most-likely be won in the swing states which, at this juncture, include: Nevada (6), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Indiana (11), Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15) and Florida (29). And the sorry fact of the matter is that the democrats did not do very well in these states in the recent midterms.
And, there is also the matter of the 2010 census where several Electoral Votes shifted from blue states to red states.
And I’ll also add a personal observation: I pre-buy my heating oil in the spring so I can lock-in a “no risk ceiling price” before the next heating seasons’ starts. Last May, that ceiling price was $3.019/gal and this May it is $4.149/gal. That means my oil company expects heating oil to be at least $4.15 a gallon by this time next year. And that ain’t gonna be good news for Obama and the democrats.
So, taken in its entirety, I think there is a definite opportunity to make Obama a one-term president.
However, all that said, I still think Obama will win (but not because of any of the stuff listed in the OP). Nope, he is most likely to win simply because he is the incumbent.