Obama is Reasonably Clear Favorite Entering the Stretch Run
- Thread starter courseofhistory
- Start date
I point out to him that no president from either party since FDRÂ’s second campaign in 1936 has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate even approaching the numbers we are seeing today. I tell him that any incumbent president who cannot get his poll numbers above 50 percent cannot and will not win.
Now comes a scientific study of presidential elections, from a pair of faculty members at the University of Colorado, which reinforces the political gut feeling that has been driving my prophecies to a large degree. The long-term model used for this study is the brainchild of Professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, working at CUÂ’s Boulder and Denver campuses, respectively. Their prototype, Bickers and Berry stress, analyzes economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
Since 1980, their model has accurately predicted every presidential election. Their analysis was accurate even in those years when there was a strong third party candidate running (John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996). Perhaps most impressive, their model worked in predicting that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000 while losing the electoral vote to George W. Bush.
So what does the model forecast for 2012? They predict that Mitt Romney will soundly defeat Barack Obama by winning 32 states, 53 percent of the popular vote and a whopping 320 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).
Now comes a scientific study of presidential elections, from a pair of faculty members at the University of Colorado, which reinforces the political gut feeling that has been driving my prophecies to a large degree. The long-term model used for this study is the brainchild of Professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, working at CUÂ’s Boulder and Denver campuses, respectively. Their prototype, Bickers and Berry stress, analyzes economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
Since 1980, their model has accurately predicted every presidential election. Their analysis was accurate even in those years when there was a strong third party candidate running (John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996). Perhaps most impressive, their model worked in predicting that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000 while losing the electoral vote to George W. Bush.
So what does the model forecast for 2012? They predict that Mitt Romney will soundly defeat Barack Obama by winning 32 states, 53 percent of the popular vote and a whopping 320 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).
Democrats had a campaign against Reagan too. He was the affable idiot. The befuddled old man that no one would take seriously. He was disliked among moderate republicans. At least that's why democrats said, very loudly and very often. Because democrats lie so much, and the media repeats those lies as if they were the truth, it's almost impossible to get underneath the mountain of untruths to whatever kernel of truth there is.
No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.
And none has won when the rate rose.
Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.
Last month, three months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.
And none has won when the rate rose.
Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.
Last month, three months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.
Stephanie
Diamond Member
- Jul 11, 2004
- 70,230
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Obama is Lincoln.
First he freed the gays, and then he freed the children of immigrants.
And Obama is FDR.
He saved us from another Republican caused Great Depression.
Actually no president has won with UE above 8%. Obama's UE rate has been above 8% every month of his term.
Obama is Lincoln. He trashed the Constitution and waged war on the states.
Obama is FDR. He trashed the federal budget and prolonged a recession into a Depression.
That might be because republicans will watch the democratic convention to see what kind of lies the dems come up with, but democrats won't watch the republican convention. The truth makes them cringe.
Greenbeard
Gold Member
Obama will take Ohio.
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