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Obama 'Debate Bounce' Just Not Happening: Gallup - Romney 51% Obama 45%...

paulitician

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All we heard after the vice presidential debate last Thursday night was how much good the cackling, slightly unbalanced Joe Biden had done for an Obama campaign that had been rocked by Mitt Romney's overwhelming performance in the first presidential debate. Well, now we know that just isn't the case. Since the debate, Gallup shows Romney moving from a two-point lead to a six-point lead. Today, Romney beats the president 51-45%

State polls, which are always lagging indicators, have also shown movement towards Mitt Romney. Absolutely nothing we've seen in those numbers indicates that Joe Biden's classless, childish, buffoonish debate performance did anything other than to ensure Mitt Romney's momentum kept right on keeping on.

It's worth noting that today's Rasmussen poll only shows Romney up one, 49-48%. One possible explanation comes from NumbersMuncher, a smart poll analyst on the Twitter-nets. The thinking is that Gallup might be picking up an increase in Republican enthusiasm that Rasmussen isn't. Rasmussen weights his polls with a D+5 sample. That's a perfectly reasonable skew, but as Republicans come closer to the realization that we might actually have a chance at firing President FalureTeleprompter, Rasmussen might want to have another look...

Gallup: Romney 51%, Obama 45%
Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney
 
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paulitician

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Is it panic time for Obamabots?
 

Interpol

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Gallup uses a 7-day tracker. In the first day post-debate this week, Romney's lead went down to 50-46 for a 4-point lead.

It won't really be until the end of the weekend that we'll see any real movement. But there's a 2-3 point swing if you look at Wednesday alone, so I imagine when Gallup releases their daily tracker on Monday, it'll probably be back to a statistical dead heat.

It has also been revealed that on one or two days pre-debate, the sampling weighed heavily towards people in the south, where Romney leads by 20% on average. Huge margins for Romney in the south thus far, but it's the battleground states that matter, and on that front, the President maintains a 51-48 advantage.

Now, if this daily tracker by Gallup is an outlier, you'll know it's an outlier if state polls continue to show a slim Obama advantage in places like Nevada, Iowa and Ohio. If this tracker is not an outlier, than Ohio will start showing polls favoring Romney over the next few days.

This thing is going to be close.
 
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paulitician

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Gallup uses a 7-day tracker. In the first day post-debate this week, Romney's lead went down to 50-46 for a 4-point lead.

It won't really be until the end of the weekend that we'll see any real movement. But there's a 2-3 point swing if you look at Wednesday alone, so I imagine when Gallup releases their daily tracker on Monday, it'll probably be back to a statistical dead heat.

It has also been revealed that on one or two days pre-debate, the sampling weighed heavily towards people in the south, where Romney leads by 20% on average. Huge margins for Romney in the south thus far, but it's the battleground states that matter, and on that front, the President maintains a 51-48 advantage.

Now, if this daily tracker by Gallup is an outlier, you'll know it's an outlier if state polls continue to show a slim Obama advantage in places like Nevada, Iowa and Ohio. If this tracker is not an outlier, than Ohio will start showing polls favoring Romney over the next few days.

This thing is going to be close.
I agree. It will be close. I look more to Rasmussen and Pew. And they have it a dead heat. This is good news for Romney, but i think it is closer.
 

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General Election: Romney vs. Obama
RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Romney (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 10/7 - 10/17 -- -- 47.7 46.7 Romney +1.0
Rasmussen Tracking 10/15 - 10/17 1500 LV 3.0 49 47 Romney +2
Gallup Tracking 10/11 - 10/17 2700 LV 2.0 52 45 Romney +7
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/12 - 10/17 909 LV 3.5 46 46 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 10/10 - 10/13 923 LV 3.5 46 49 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/7 - 10/11 1000 LV 3.1 48 49 Obama +1
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 10/8 - 10/10 1360 LV 2.7 47 46 Romney +1
FOX News 10/7 - 10/9 1109 LV 3.0 46 45 Romney +1

All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data
Electoral College 201 Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan 206
I see a shift in the landscape and I don't see a bounce for Obama since the last debate.
 

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I can't help but feel Mitts recent bounce may be due to Barry's assault weapons ban to be revisited statement.

The NRA and other gun owners are fuming over that line
 
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I can't help but feel Mitts recent bounce may be due to Barry's assault weapons ban to be revisited statement.

The NRA and other gun owners are fuming over that line
Yeah, he definitely kissed the Gun Owner-Vote goodbye. That could hurt him very badly.
 

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