Obama Bump of 2.7% in Polls Since 3rd Debate

[skookerasbil]

linked to analysis in other threads. gave own opinion on long term trends and examples of past races. more.. it gets buried.

now fuck off you light weight blowhard

Blue Phantom is a legend in his own mind. He really thinks repeating whatever crap they are slinging at RCP trying to get foot-traffic means anything.

Fact is, even if by some miracle, Obama loses the popular vote, he's got a lock on the electoral vote. Nobody's idiot brother is going to lose the ballots this time.

Oh Dante and JoeB are of the same mind. Well everything is completely clear to me now. Hey Dante...I am not sure if anything is more damning in the world than a JoeB endorsement. You might be able to get Truthmatters or rDean to sign your "Phantom sucks" petition though. I am going to bed. You guys are fucking crack up.

Blue.......no worries here. Go back and look at the 2008 results over at RCP.......McCain, the worst GOP candidate ever in the midst of an economic train wreck still only lost many of the swing states by a handful of points. The k00ks never look at things from a historical perspective.........they get caught up in the moment and they rarely have their feet on the ground anyways. The first debate was the nail in the coffin.............

 

[JoeB131]

Treating this Moron's hackery like it's serious...

I really don't know why you continue to do this to yourself Joe. "If Obama wins this and this and this and this and this he wins....."

You are aware that historically the undecided voters break for the challenger right? That happens at roughly a 60% clip. Now you are aware that right now history is repeating itself in that regard right?

Actually, using history as a guide, incumbants usually win in the stretch. So, no, not really.

Now if we go just by RCP Romney has 206 and Obama has 201.

Now we can realistically make some reasonable calls here intheir toos up states. Romney will take Florida (29) and at this point almost certainly Virginia (13).

Now you see, there you go again. Right now, RCP, with all their HACKERY, has VA tied. so no, don't count your chickens before they are hatched.

That gives Romney 248. That means he needs 22 to win. We can give Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) to Obama. That gives him 237. He needs 33 to win.

Let's look at Romney's paths to victory in order of likelihood:

1) Ohio and any other state (and he's looking strong and trending well in New Hampshire and Colorado - he will get one of them)

2) Wisconsin and two states from Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

3) Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire

And ALL of those scenarios count on him taking states that Obama is now leading in. States Obama took last time, and in the case of WI, NH, and IA, states the Democrats usually win.

Well I would say 3 is one hell of a longshot. 2 is only slightly more realistic because logically it doesn't stand to reason that Romney would take Wisconsin and lose Ohio. But 1 is VERY possible and if trends continue, damn near likely.

Now let's look at Obama's paths to victory...

1) Ohio, Wisconsin, and one state between Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

Exactly. Wisconsin is a done deal and probably so is Ohio. Folks in Ohio are not going to forget Romney was perfectly for letting their jobs in the Auto Industry disappear, or that he got behind Kasich's attempt de-unionize cops and firefighters. Time has Obama up by 5 in Ohio today, and no poll has Romney leading in Ohio. Romney's "lead" in Florida is smaller than Obama's lead in Ohio, but in Blue Phantom land, a 1.8 mixed lead is better than a 2.1 solid lead.

Ok....just forget about 4. Romney will pick off one so that really means he has to win Ohio and the trends are not looking good for him there. Even if he does, he still has to pick up Colorado or New Hampshire and neither of those are looking good for him now either.

Um, actually, the trends are looking great of Obama in Ohio. But here's Romney's real problem.

Because minorities are going to break 80% for Obama, Romney has to get 65% of the white vote to win.

Now I agree that things can change....the polls have not yet shown how the third debate will influence things. It's too early yet. We don't know what October surprise is coming from either side. I will say that the Benghazi emails sure aint gonna help Obama's cause.

The only people who care about Benghazi are right wing Birfer Whacks who think that Obama is part of some vast Muslim conspiracy.

Now, I know you like to paint yourself as "smarter", but it's interesting to see the company you keep.

 

[skookerasbil]

 

[JoeB131]

Oh and Dante.....I am STILL fucking waiting for you to refute my arguments with something more than a JoeB level "you suck", "
I hate Mormons" response. It's been two days...clearly it aint gonna come.

Dude, the only crack-up I see is you obsessing about me.

Usually I ignore your hackery because it's based on mental masturbation.

You guys fucked up when you nominated Romney. I spent a lot of time trying to warn you, but you took an election the GOP should have won and lost it by nominating a weird cultist...

Not to worry, though, guy, after Romney loses, you guys can insist he lost because "he wasn't a real conservative" and I promise not to mock you, too much.

 

[skookerasbil]

Blue.........forget about Bhengazi. As an administrator, I do investigations for my company all the time. These frauds have had almost 6 weeks to get the stories together. We know what happened..........if you have the IQ of a small soap dish, you know what happened. The whole thing is tainted now and no poop will be left on the president. In the end, lower level administration people will be thrown under the bus and the whole thing will go away. In fact, it wont even be a story 13 days from now.

But it doesnt matter Blue.............dont buy any of the distraction shit you get in the media, even FOX. They want you to tune in to their network too and keeping the perception that this thing is going to be close makes sure you do. Mark my words.........by 10:30pm, the big check will be next to Governor Romneys name. Its not just the 23 million people without jobs........its all the people who know them and are getting slammed at the supermarket and gas pump. Its the small business employee's, whose owners are telling them they might not have a job at the holidays if Obama wins a second term. Its 2012, not 2008..........the whole landscape has changed out there in Realville.

 

[skookerasbil]

gay is gay

 

[JoeB131]

Well, Skooby, you certainly are gay for me, but I don't swing that way, dude.

Not that there's anything wrong with that. The sooner you come out of the closet, probably the healthier you'll be...

 

[hazlnut]

What a relief, because I was afraid we might actually elect a guy who has balanced every budget he's ever managed, who brought his state's unemployment rate down to below the national average (to below 5%), who held state spending to nearly zero net growth, who increased his state's bond rating, who increased his state's reserve fund, etc., etc.

I was afraid we would not want to reelect a president who has piled up as much debt in 4 years as Bush did in 8 years, who has given us a trillion-plus deficit for each of his 3 budget years, who has given us more than 3 years of 8%-plus unemployment, who has given us the weakest 3 years of economic growth since the Great Depression, who has presided over a doubling of the price of a gallon of gas, etc., etc. Gosh, why would we not want to give him 4 more years?

Yea and those Massachusetts voters appreciate it so much that Obama is up by twenty.

Massachusetts tells us everything we need to know about Mitt Romney.


And unremarkable Governor carried by his state representatives.

 

[hazlnut]

12 more days until the Mormon gets crushed?

Yup. Looking forward to it.

Whatever you say s0n..........but be looking for my PM to you on election night. Dollar to a thousand stale donuts that when I click SEND, I'll be laughing my balls off.

Laughing or licking?

 

[BluePhantom]

Now you see, there you go again. Right now, RCP, with all their HACKERY, has VA tied. so no, don't count your chickens before they are hatched.

Oh now RCP is hackery...because why exactly? All they do is a simple average. BTW...you might want to have another look on that spread.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

And ALL of those scenarios count on him taking states that Obama is now leading in. States Obama took last time, and in the case of WI, NH, and IA, states the Democrats usually win.

Yeah and the GOP usually takes North Carolina and Colorado but that didn't happen last time now did it? NH is trending strong to Romney and he holds a small lead there...the other two I imagine will go to Obama at this point.

Exactly. Wisconsin is a done deal and probably so is Ohio. Folks in Ohio are not going to forget Romney was perfectly for letting their jobs in the Auto Industry disappear, or that he got behind Kasich's attempt de-unionize cops and firefighters. Time has Obama up by 5 in Ohio today, and no poll has Romney leading in Ohio. Romney's "lead" in Florida is smaller than Obama's lead in Ohio, but in Blue Phantom land, a 1.8 mixed lead is better than a 2.1 solid lead.

TIME? TIME? Are you a fucking moron? How many times do I have to point out that media polls are biased toward the Democrats? I will link the breakdown for you yet another time although it will fall on deaf ears. The liberals keep running from it like the plague.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/election-forums/256704-5-point-obama-lead-in-ohio-ohio-ohio-5.html#post6211202

Um, actually, the trends are looking great of Obama in Ohio. But here's Romney's real problem.

They are? Really?

Media Polls
Before Debates: O+7.71
After 1st Debate: O+5
After 2nd Debate: O+4

Professional Polls
Before Debates: O+2.22
After 1st Debate: O+1
After 2nd Debate: O+0.5

The only people who care about Benghazi are right wing Birfer Whacks who think that Obama is part of some vast Muslim conspiracy.

Oh I am perfectly aware that you left wing loons don't give a shit about a dead US Ambassador and navy seals. The rest of the nations does though.

 

[jillian]

hey, phantom, i saw that RCP has Virginia in Romney's camp... might be.

fivethirtyeight... my guy nate... has it as a tossup.

different polls, perhaps?

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

 

[AceRothstein]

RCP even has Obama up again now.

 

[Charles_Main]

In polls in the last 2 days, President Obama has decidedly ended Gov. Romney's two weeks of momentum, and has grabbed the ball back.

Talking Points Memo

CVOTER (+5 Obama) from 10/7-10/13 it was Romney 49-46

from 10/17-10/23 it's Obama 49-47

Gallup (LV) (+4 Obama) 10/14-20 Romney 52-45 10/17-23 Romney 50-47

Gallup (RV) (+4 O) 10/14-20 Romney 49-46 10/17-23 Obama 48-47

PPP (+4 O) 10/12-14 Romney 50-46 10/19-23 Romney 48 Obama 48

Rasmussen (+2 Romney) 10/18-20 Romney 49-47 10/21-23 Romney 50-46

RAND (+2 O) 10/20 Obama 48-46 10/23 Obama 49-45

Reuters/Ipsos (+2 O) 10/8-12 Romney 46-45 10/19-23 Obama 47-46

IBD/TIPP (+3 O) 10/12-17 tied at 46 10/18-23 Obama 47-44



That's a 2.75% shift in just 2 days of polling, while three quarters of those polls also include days leading up to the debate, which were favorable for Romney.

Gone is the 7-point lead from Gallup.

It won't be until well into the weekend that we have a clearer view of the effect of this bump for Obama after his third debate, but it is clear now that the 2nd debate slowed the Romney momentum marginally, while the 3rd debate appears to show the beginning of a momentum swing back towards the President.

My prediction? I think the national polls, which come out to a tie at the moment, all of which are within the margin of error, will pretty much stay that way now, with one poll after another showing a tie, or Obama up by 2, or Romney up by 2. From here on in, the winner will be the guy with the best ground game.

Can you name a National Poll in Which Obama has Cracked 50%?

 

[Interpol]

I don't know how you figure that.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Romney 206, Obama 201

Colorado is trending Romney, Florida is almost a lock for Romney, New Hampshire is trending Romney, Virginia is trending Romney...that's 55 EV for a total of 261. If he takes Wisconsin or Ohio it's game, set, match, and checkmate on top of it and while Obama is currently leading in both it aint by very much and the trends still favor Romney.

Phantom, you are still a hack.

Colorado and VA are tossups, and Obama has a better ground game than Romney does. That will probably make all the difference.

But the fact is, Romney is trailing in Ohio and Wisconsin and if Obama wins those along with PA, MI (which RCP is still insisting are toss ups for some reason) he just needs Iowa or Nevada to get him over 270.

Game. Set. Match.

I really don't know why you continue to do this to yourself Joe. "If Obama wins this and this and this and this and this he wins....."

You are aware that historically the undecided voters break for the challenger right? That happens at roughly a 60% clip. Now you are aware that right now history is repeating itself in that regard right?

Now if we go just by RCP Romney has 206 and Obama has 201.

Now we can realistically make some reasonable calls here intheir toos up states. Romney will take Florida (29) and at this point almost certainly Virginia (13). That gives Romney 248. That means he needs 22 to win. We can give Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) to Obama. That gives him 237. He needs 33 to win.

Let's look at Romney's paths to victory in order of likelihood:

1) Ohio and any other state (and he's looking strong and trending well in New Hampshire and Colorado - he will get one of them)

2) Wisconsin and two states from Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

3) Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire

Well I would say 3 is one hell of a longshot. 2 is only slightly more realistic because logically it doesn't stand to reason that Romney would take Wisconsin and lose Ohio. But 1 is VERY possible and if trends continue, damn near likely.

Now let's look at Obama's paths to victory...

1) Ohio, Wisconsin, and one state between Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

2) Ohio, Colorado and one state between Iowa and Nevada.

3) Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire

4) Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire

Ok....just forget about 4. Romney will pick off one so that really means he has to win Ohio and the trends are not looking good for him there. Even if he does, he still has to pick up Colorado or New Hampshire and neither of those are looking good for him now either.

Now I agree that things can change....the polls have not yet shown how the third debate will influence things. It's too early yet. We don't know what October surprise is coming from either side. I will say that the Benghazi emails sure aint gonna help Obama's cause.

Great post, but the end is factually incorrect.

Since the day of the 3rd debate, Romney no longer leads Obama by 7 points in Gallup. That lead remains at 3 now.

Rasmussen had gotten all the way up to 5 ahead for Romney almost a week ago, but today that lead is also 3, down a notch overnight for Romney.

In Nate Silver's projections, Obama was at his lowest point a week or so ago, dipping below a 60% chance of winning. Today he's back up to 71%.

I think this looks like 2004, where the incumbent came out weak after the 1st debate, but then recovered in the next two and closed strong. All the polling data is showing that to be true as of today, the third straight day that Romney's momentum is shown to be receding.

I'll give IN, FL, NC and CO to Romney. Those are states that Obama won last time.

I'll even give NV, NH and VA to Romney.

But without breaking into WI, IO or OH, Romney would still lose 271-267.

That's the President's firewall at the moment, and he continues to poll well there. On top of that firewall, Obama is looking for insurance in NV, NH and VA in particular, and he hasn't given up on FL yet, or NC for that matter, where the early voting numbers still show a very strong margin for the President.

There is no wave this year. The battle tightened three weeks ago, Romney had 10-14 good days, and now even Nate Silver is saying that Obama has trended upwards the last week to 10 days.

Romney's ground game is better than McCain's, but Obama's is still very strong. All the exit polls out of Ohio show him with at least a 25 point lead. Rasmussen shows the President at 63% in the exit polls of early voters in Ohio. That's remarkable.

Obama's losing some independent votes, but he remains the candidate who is still churning out a high number of new voters to replace the new voters who might not be voting for him this time.

It's still looking like 281-257 in the electoral college map for Obama, if you take away all the toss-ups.

This is 2004 all over again.

 

[Interpol]

In polls in the last 2 days, President Obama has decidedly ended Gov. Romney's two weeks of momentum, and has grabbed the ball back.

Talking Points Memo

CVOTER (+5 Obama) from 10/7-10/13 it was Romney 49-46

from 10/17-10/23 it's Obama 49-47

Gallup (LV) (+4 Obama) 10/14-20 Romney 52-45 10/17-23 Romney 50-47

Gallup (RV) (+4 O) 10/14-20 Romney 49-46 10/17-23 Obama 48-47

PPP (+4 O) 10/12-14 Romney 50-46 10/19-23 Romney 48 Obama 48

Rasmussen (+2 Romney) 10/18-20 Romney 49-47 10/21-23 Romney 50-46

RAND (+2 O) 10/20 Obama 48-46 10/23 Obama 49-45

Reuters/Ipsos (+2 O) 10/8-12 Romney 46-45 10/19-23 Obama 47-46

IBD/TIPP (+3 O) 10/12-17 tied at 46 10/18-23 Obama 47-44



That's a 2.75% shift in just 2 days of polling, while three quarters of those polls also include days leading up to the debate, which were favorable for Romney.

Gone is the 7-point lead from Gallup.

It won't be until well into the weekend that we have a clearer view of the effect of this bump for Obama after his third debate, but it is clear now that the 2nd debate slowed the Romney momentum marginally, while the 3rd debate appears to show the beginning of a momentum swing back towards the President.

My prediction? I think the national polls, which come out to a tie at the moment, all of which are within the margin of error, will pretty much stay that way now, with one poll after another showing a tie, or Obama up by 2, or Romney up by 2. From here on in, the winner will be the guy with the best ground game.

Can you name a National Poll in Which Obama has Cracked 50%?

He was cracking 50 for about three to four weeks in September and going into October.

By taking a nap in the 1st debate, Obama injured himself.

But over the last 5 days, his polling is up. Consider Gallup. On Monday, Romney was up 52-45. That's a 7-day rolling average.

Today, it's 50-47 Romney. That means the President has been hitting 50 since Monday, which is how come he's only behind 3 in that poll now instead of 7.

50 is a great number, but if you study the electoral map, what we're seeing is that Red states, by hating on Obama for 4 years, have really gone especially red this time.

Blue states are still blue. No change.

Swing states are about evenly split.

The only 50% number that now matters belongs to Ohio. Romney can practically wipe the board, but as long as Obama continues to hit 50+ there, that's his firewall.

In the average of all the recent polls, the race remains 47-47, give or take less than 1%.

The 50% that Romney currently enjoys in Gallup and Rasmussen peaked 5 days ago. He stopped polling at 50 as of Tuesday of this week and has been coming down a notch, meaning Obama still has a very slight edge.

 

[decker]

Phantom, you are still a hack.

Colorado and VA are tossups, and Obama has a better ground game than Romney does. That will probably make all the difference.

But the fact is, Romney is trailing in Ohio and Wisconsin and if Obama wins those along with PA, MI (which RCP is still insisting are toss ups for some reason) he just needs Iowa or Nevada to get him over 270.

Game. Set. Match.

I really don't know why you continue to do this to yourself Joe. "If Obama wins this and this and this and this and this he wins....."

You are aware that historically the undecided voters break for the challenger right? That happens at roughly a 60% clip. Now you are aware that right now history is repeating itself in that regard right?

Now if we go just by RCP Romney has 206 and Obama has 201.

Now we can realistically make some reasonable calls here intheir toos up states. Romney will take Florida (29) and at this point almost certainly Virginia (13). That gives Romney 248. That means he needs 22 to win. We can give Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) to Obama. That gives him 237. He needs 33 to win.

Let's look at Romney's paths to victory in order of likelihood:

1) Ohio and any other state (and he's looking strong and trending well in New Hampshire and Colorado - he will get one of them)

2) Wisconsin and two states from Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

3) Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire

Well I would say 3 is one hell of a longshot. 2 is only slightly more realistic because logically it doesn't stand to reason that Romney would take Wisconsin and lose Ohio. But 1 is VERY possible and if trends continue, damn near likely.

Now let's look at Obama's paths to victory...

1) Ohio, Wisconsin, and one state between Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

2) Ohio, Colorado and one state between Iowa and Nevada.

3) Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire

4) Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire

Ok....just forget about 4. Romney will pick off one so that really means he has to win Ohio and the trends are not looking good for him there. Even if he does, he still has to pick up Colorado or New Hampshire and neither of those are looking good for him now either.

Now I agree that things can change....the polls have not yet shown how the third debate will influence things. It's too early yet. We don't know what October surprise is coming from either side. I will say that the Benghazi emails sure aint gonna help Obama's cause.

Great post, but the end is factually incorrect.

Since the day of the 3rd debate, Romney no longer leads Obama by 7 points in Gallup. That lead remains at 3 now.

Rasmussen had gotten all the way up to 5 ahead for Romney almost a week ago, but today that lead is also 3, down a notch overnight for Romney.

In Nate Silver's projections, Obama was at his lowest point a week or so ago, dipping below a 60% chance of winning. Today he's back up to 71%.

I think this looks like 2004, where the incumbent came out weak after the 1st debate, but then recovered in the next two and closed strong. All the polling data is showing that to be true as of today, the third straight day that Romney's momentum is shown to be receding.

I'll give IN, FL, NC and CO to Romney. Those are states that Obama won last time.

I'll even give NV, NH and VA to Romney.

But without breaking into WI, IO or OH, Romney would still lose 271-267.

That's the President's firewall at the moment, and he continues to poll well there. On top of that firewall, Obama is looking for insurance in NV, NH and VA in particular, and he hasn't given up on FL yet, or NC for that matter, where the early voting numbers still show a very strong margin for the President.

There is no wave this year. The battle tightened three weeks ago, Romney had 10-14 good days, and now even Nate Silver is saying that Obama has trended upwards the last week to 10 days.

Romney's ground game is better than McCain's, but Obama's is still very strong. All the exit polls out of Ohio show him with at least a 25 point lead. Rasmussen shows the President at 63% in the exit polls of early voters in Ohio. That's remarkable.

Obama's losing some independent votes, but he remains the candidate who is still churning out a high number of new voters to replace the new voters who might not be voting for him this time.

It's still looking like 281-257 in the electoral college map for Obama, if you take away all the toss-ups.

This is 2004 all over again.

some good points . for me this is where i see it at moment

think romney will win nc va,fi and co. just think those states will go his way that be 257
think obama will win nv,mi, pa . that will give him 243

then we have iowa,wi,nh and ohio left. for me at this point obama would need
obama would need ohio and wi to win in my view
romney just ohio

so for me romney has edge their but ohio still remains key state. both could win without it but it very tough

 

[decker]

In polls in the last 2 days, President Obama has decidedly ended Gov. Romney's two weeks of momentum, and has grabbed the ball back.

Talking Points Memo

CVOTER (+5 Obama) from 10/7-10/13 it was Romney 49-46

from 10/17-10/23 it's Obama 49-47

Gallup (LV) (+4 Obama) 10/14-20 Romney 52-45 10/17-23 Romney 50-47

Gallup (RV) (+4 O) 10/14-20 Romney 49-46 10/17-23 Obama 48-47

PPP (+4 O) 10/12-14 Romney 50-46 10/19-23 Romney 48 Obama 48

Rasmussen (+2 Romney) 10/18-20 Romney 49-47 10/21-23 Romney 50-46

RAND (+2 O) 10/20 Obama 48-46 10/23 Obama 49-45

Reuters/Ipsos (+2 O) 10/8-12 Romney 46-45 10/19-23 Obama 47-46

IBD/TIPP (+3 O) 10/12-17 tied at 46 10/18-23 Obama 47-44



That's a 2.75% shift in just 2 days of polling, while three quarters of those polls also include days leading up to the debate, which were favorable for Romney.

Gone is the 7-point lead from Gallup.

It won't be until well into the weekend that we have a clearer view of the effect of this bump for Obama after his third debate, but it is clear now that the 2nd debate slowed the Romney momentum marginally, while the 3rd debate appears to show the beginning of a momentum swing back towards the President.

My prediction? I think the national polls, which come out to a tie at the moment, all of which are within the margin of error, will pretty much stay that way now, with one poll after another showing a tie, or Obama up by 2, or Romney up by 2. From here on in, the winner will be the guy with the best ground game.

Can you name a National Poll in Which Obama has Cracked 50%?

He was cracking 50 for about three to four weeks in September and going into October.

By taking a nap in the 1st debate, Obama injured himself.

But over the last 5 days, his polling is up. Consider Gallup. On Monday, Romney was up 52-45. That's a 7-day rolling average.

Today, it's 50-47 Romney. That means the President has been hitting 50 since Monday, which is how come he's only behind 3 in that poll now instead of 7.

50 is a great number, but if you study the electoral map, what we're seeing is that Red states, by hating on Obama for 4 years, have really gone especially red this time.

Blue states are still blue. No change.

Swing states are about evenly split.

The only 50% number that now matters belongs to Ohio. Romney can practically wipe the board, but as long as Obama continues to hit 50+ there, that's his firewall.

In the average of all the recent polls, the race remains 47-47, give or take less than 1%.

The 50% that Romney currently enjoys in Gallup and Rasmussen peaked 5 days ago. He stopped polling at 50 as of Tuesday of this week and has been coming down a notch, meaning Obama still has a very slight edge.

i hope your right as in my view obama can,t win if on election day he at 47% nationally. must be on at least 48 to 49% nationally to have chance

obama best and maybe only hope is with that midwest firewall he got to hold on to. nv,wi,mi,pa and ohio are his best hopes. but if fails to all of ohio,wi,mi and pa , sorry man but it done as romney i think will win co.

 

[Interpol]

I really don't know why you continue to do this to yourself Joe. "If Obama wins this and this and this and this and this he wins....."

You are aware that historically the undecided voters break for the challenger right? That happens at roughly a 60% clip. Now you are aware that right now history is repeating itself in that regard right?

Now if we go just by RCP Romney has 206 and Obama has 201.

Now we can realistically make some reasonable calls here intheir toos up states. Romney will take Florida (29) and at this point almost certainly Virginia (13). That gives Romney 248. That means he needs 22 to win. We can give Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) to Obama. That gives him 237. He needs 33 to win.

Let's look at Romney's paths to victory in order of likelihood:

1) Ohio and any other state (and he's looking strong and trending well in New Hampshire and Colorado - he will get one of them)

2) Wisconsin and two states from Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

3) Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire

Well I would say 3 is one hell of a longshot. 2 is only slightly more realistic because logically it doesn't stand to reason that Romney would take Wisconsin and lose Ohio. But 1 is VERY possible and if trends continue, damn near likely.

Now let's look at Obama's paths to victory...

1) Ohio, Wisconsin, and one state between Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

2) Ohio, Colorado and one state between Iowa and Nevada.

3) Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire

4) Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire

Ok....just forget about 4. Romney will pick off one so that really means he has to win Ohio and the trends are not looking good for him there. Even if he does, he still has to pick up Colorado or New Hampshire and neither of those are looking good for him now either.

Now I agree that things can change....the polls have not yet shown how the third debate will influence things. It's too early yet. We don't know what October surprise is coming from either side. I will say that the Benghazi emails sure aint gonna help Obama's cause.

Great post, but the end is factually incorrect.

Since the day of the 3rd debate, Romney no longer leads Obama by 7 points in Gallup. That lead remains at 3 now.

Rasmussen had gotten all the way up to 5 ahead for Romney almost a week ago, but today that lead is also 3, down a notch overnight for Romney.

In Nate Silver's projections, Obama was at his lowest point a week or so ago, dipping below a 60% chance of winning. Today he's back up to 71%.

I think this looks like 2004, where the incumbent came out weak after the 1st debate, but then recovered in the next two and closed strong. All the polling data is showing that to be true as of today, the third straight day that Romney's momentum is shown to be receding.

I'll give IN, FL, NC and CO to Romney. Those are states that Obama won last time.

I'll even give NV, NH and VA to Romney.

But without breaking into WI, IO or OH, Romney would still lose 271-267.

That's the President's firewall at the moment, and he continues to poll well there. On top of that firewall, Obama is looking for insurance in NV, NH and VA in particular, and he hasn't given up on FL yet, or NC for that matter, where the early voting numbers still show a very strong margin for the President.

There is no wave this year. The battle tightened three weeks ago, Romney had 10-14 good days, and now even Nate Silver is saying that Obama has trended upwards the last week to 10 days.

Romney's ground game is better than McCain's, but Obama's is still very strong. All the exit polls out of Ohio show him with at least a 25 point lead. Rasmussen shows the President at 63% in the exit polls of early voters in Ohio. That's remarkable.

Obama's losing some independent votes, but he remains the candidate who is still churning out a high number of new voters to replace the new voters who might not be voting for him this time.

It's still looking like 281-257 in the electoral college map for Obama, if you take away all the toss-ups.

This is 2004 all over again.

some good points . for me this is where i see it at moment

think romney will win nc va,fi and co. just think those states will go his way that be 257
think obama will win nv,mi, pa . that will give him 243

then we have iowa,wi,nh and ohio left. for me at this point obama would need
obama would need ohio and wi to win in my view
romney just ohio

so for me romney has edge their but ohio still remains key state. both could win without it but it very tough

I'm pretty close to that, except I think Obama will win WI a lot easier than Romney will win FL, so I'm giving Obama WI now.

Obama looks like he's going to win OH easier than Romney is going to win VA even, where the Obama ground game is really tight.

I hate that New Hampshire is always considered to be one of the true toss-ups, and then by 10 pm or so, they always call it for a Democrat, typically.

Romney's been doing better there, but I still think Obama's got it.

We have to take into consideration that a lot of the LV polling models are only reaching out to people who voted in the 2010 midterms. That was Tea Partiers, more traditional Republicans, Independents, and only some Democrats.

Obama's base didn't show up for that vote. Too young or inexperienced to understand the importance of all those down ballot races. They're only showing up in the RV models, and in those, Obama takes the lead in several polls.

So I've got NV, CO, IO, OH, VA, NC, FL and NH as the last 8 places that will be called on election night.

Obama gets WI in my model. That means he needs Ohio plus one.

 

[NoNukes]

It should be interesting seeing what type of bump Obama gets from trump.

 

[Interpol]

The RAND survey is interesting.

They've got 3,500 uncommitted voters, been polling them since July 5.

Among them, it shows Obama sliding a bit after the first debate, but since the 3rd debate, the bump continues, and it was by another +1 margin today for Obama, who now leads Romney among that pool of undecideds by a score of 50% to 45%.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

The new Wall St Journal/NBC poll has CO back as a tie, and shows Obama with a 5% bump since almost 4 weeks ago.

Grove has Obama up by 2 in FL, as those numbers begin to show a statistical tie. Same with VA, where the President has seen about a 2% bump since Monday.

It's still a bit unclear because a lot of the polls still have a lot of weight carried from last weekend, before the 3rd debate, but so far we're seeing the President recover somewhat in VA, CO, FL, NC and WI.

NC remains the most interesting story to me, since early voting numbers have forced the Romney campaign to stay there and defend the state when what they wanted to do was move a lot more resources to Ohio.

I don't know about anyone else's map, but if Romney doesn't flip VA, NC and FL, he'll lose. He must win all three of those if he wants to be in the game.