NY-23 Facts

[Tech_Esq]

Hoffman outraised her.

Without insider party hack money...Again, no mean feat.

Again, 95% of his money came from outside the district. And nearly a third came from one of the single largest conservative lobbying groups in the country. That isn't exactly shaking for pennies outside the Safeway.

So, you didn't read the contents of the link you posted. Interesting. You really should take a look at all 20 pages of it.

 

[Mr. Capitalism]

There will be more and more Dems now turning to the center and away from Obama/Pelosi with 2010 hanging over them - and that is a good thing for America...

Unfortunately there will also be more "R"s turning from the center after seeing an "R" centrist cadidate get smashed by her own party. That means more "R"s will lose, and I don't see that as a good thing.

All Palin's interference in NY23 did was toss the Democrats a seat they shouldn't have been able to win. Hoffman outspent and out-star powered his opponents and still lost. Why?

Because abandoning the center = "LOSING" in American politics.

Scuzzy was no "centrist"....Let's disabuse ourselves of that myth, at least.

Really? Pro choice, Pro Gay, Pro Tax Cut, Anti Cap and trade, Pro Iraq.

That sounds pretty down the middle. Unless you are a firebreather.

 

[The T]

If you bothered to look at the link you posted you will note a couple of things.

- Most of the donations came in September and October

- Most of the larger donations were from inside the district

Yes, Hoffman benefited because he became a cause celeb of the conservatives. But, it was still just the potential for the story that made him interesting. Not the election or the seat itself.

If a (let's face it) geeky, poorly spoken, third-party candidate could be both the RINO and the Dem against all the odds, WOW! That would have been a great narrative to thump the Dems and RINOs with.

Meh, it didn't happen. But he was 3k votes from it happening. It was a long shot and don't think anyone that was pumping it thought any different. So a long shot didn't pay off, what's new?

But the mere fact that Hoffman got that close says something none-the-less.

 

[mascale]

Voter turn-outs in 2009, Viriginia and New Jersey, were only slightly more than half the 2008 turn-out for the Democrats. As anyone would expect, Republican candidates did relatively better, against the two Conservatives mega-losers of 2008. Democratic Candidates couldn't even get half the 2008 vote. The female(?) huntress from 2008: Couldn't pull off a win in a small district.

The Republican "ascendancy" is credited to "Independents," and not to a Republican agenda. Again, Sarah Palin couldn't pull off a win in a small district. There may possibly be a relative conservative, routinely voting core, who simply vote as a matter of second-nature. There weren't that many Democrats, in comparison, or liberal leaning independents, with that kind of voting core-value. Possibly this election, in a Southern State, was not much about them, after all.

In Virginia, the top-of-the-Democratic ticket didn't much make of himself, much less any ties to the Liberal legislatures and Executive Branch in Washington, D. C. In New Jersey, the top-of-the-ticket did, and did better.

In Upstate New York, The Rush(?) Limbaugh Conservatives continued at national-joke level status, and lost. In California: the Liberal won. Those two were not state-wide races, and so giant mega-state turnouts would not be expected. The Big-name Conservatives were unable to generate a base, and the Democratic base didn't have to show up in any greater than usual numbers.

Easily, the Democrats didn't see that they had to show up, apparently in New Jersey or in Viriginia. In Virginia, even outreach to the Democratic base didn't hapen. In New Jersey, some happened, and the Democrat did better.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Who names their kid "Rush?" in America? The sisters are name, "Re-Run," "Dribble," and "Free-Throw?")

 

[Tech_Esq]

I would remind you Corzine was once a Senator and then became a governor. Why? Because there is far more direct power and influence. The governorship victories are far more substantial to the national political momentum than one special election seat in upstate New York that will see another election next year. If Hoffman had won NY23 it would have been a remarkable - near miraculous accomplishment. The fact he came so close is a testament to the resurgence of the conservative base.

There will be more and more Dems now turning to the center and away from Obama/Pelosi with 2010 hanging over them - and that is a good thing for America...

No, they are far more powerful as far as state momentum goes. Hell, Virginia actually has an interesting record of voting in the opposite party from the President. I think we all can agree that Mark Warner's and Jim McGreevy's elections in 2001 didn't exactly set the table for a Democratic Sweep in 2002...

If Hoffman had won NY23, it would have been status quo. By the end he had as much money and national support as Owens. Actually more. I don't recall VP candidates, Governors and Senators from around the country stumping and fundraising for Owens...

Owens is the miracle.

There have been 5 Republican governors of Virginia in the last 140 years. What's your point again?

 

[Mr. Capitalism]

Ah, here you betray your total ignorance to national politics.

The network of governors is essential to a national compaign. Governors in fact often have more sway with the White House than that state's respective Senators and certainly far more than each state's respective Congressmen/women. (unless it is a long-term Congressperson - then the power balance can shift a bit) An effective governor already has an established party machine in place for their respective state, which then is of great aid to a presidential candidate.

The loss of both Virginia and New Jersey to Republican governors was a huge blow to the Democrats. As for NY23 - that will go back to the 'pubs in 2010 - and mark my words, it will be a far more openly conservative Republican that time around...

Oh thats adorable. Telling a career politico about politics.

Again, you are absolutely correct that Governors hold sway and do have machines in place. However, Bob McDonnell wanting to lock up gays and feed them to lions isn't going to hold more sway with Obama than Mark Warner or even Jim Webb. McDonnell campaigned on transportation primarily. Deeds campaigned on...well...Christ knows what. Having the Gov. on your side can help in nailbiter races (well, if it is close). But look at the swing states in 2008. Mostly R governors with D victories.

 

[saveliberty]

Not the media talking point you give out when you "win":

White House distances itself from Dem losses
Voters responding to 'local issues that didn't involve the president'

 

[Mr. Capitalism]

I would remind you Corzine was once a Senator and then became a governor. Why? Because there is far more direct power and influence. The governorship victories are far more substantial to the national political momentum than one special election seat in upstate New York that will see another election next year. If Hoffman had won NY23 it would have been a remarkable - near miraculous accomplishment. The fact he came so close is a testament to the resurgence of the conservative base.

There will be more and more Dems now turning to the center and away from Obama/Pelosi with 2010 hanging over them - and that is a good thing for America...

No, they are far more powerful as far as state momentum goes. Hell, Virginia actually has an interesting record of voting in the opposite party from the President. I think we all can agree that Mark Warner's and Jim McGreevy's elections in 2001 didn't exactly set the table for a Democratic Sweep in 2002...

If Hoffman had won NY23, it would have been status quo. By the end he had as much money and national support as Owens. Actually more. I don't recall VP candidates, Governors and Senators from around the country stumping and fundraising for Owens...

Owens is the miracle.

There have been 5 Republican governors of Virginia in the last 140 years. What's your point again?

Do we really have to sidetrack ourselves into a talk about the Southern Strategy? After the Southern Straegy (Nixon Administration) Virginia has been 5 D's 5 R's. Again, pretty much split down the middle. I don't think the Southern Democrats of the Reconstruction era make much of a difference.

 

[Sinatra]

Ah, here you betray your total ignorance to national politics.

The network of governors is essential to a national compaign. Governors in fact often have more sway with the White House than that state's respective Senators and certainly far more than each state's respective Congressmen/women. (unless it is a long-term Congressperson - then the power balance can shift a bit) An effective governor already has an established party machine in place for their respective state, which then is of great aid to a presidential candidate.

The loss of both Virginia and New Jersey to Republican governors was a huge blow to the Democrats. As for NY23 - that will go back to the 'pubs in 2010 - and mark my words, it will be a far more openly conservative Republican that time around...

Oh thats adorable. Telling a career politico about politics.

Again, you are absolutely correct that Governors hold sway and do have machines in place. However, Bob McDonnell wanting to lock up gays and feed them to lions isn't going to hold more sway with Obama than Mark Warner or even Jim Webb. McDonnell campaigned on transportation primarily. Deeds campaigned on...well...Christ knows what. Having the Gov. on your side can help in nailbiter races (well, if it is close). But look at the swing states in 2008. Mostly R governors with D victories.

____


Right - with a national candidate running a far more moderate race than he is now governing.

Come back after 2010 and let's see what is what...

 

[Mr. Capitalism]

Not the media talking point you give out when you "win":

White House distances itself from Dem losses
Voters responding to 'local issues that didn't involve the president'

They lost the Governors, that is a fact. But tell me this.

You think Corzine lost because NJ hates Obama? Or because Corzine tried to raise taxes and tolls? And if it was such a message to Obama, why did the GA stay basically the same?

You think Deeds lost as a message to Obama, or because as I sit here a day after the election, I still have no idea what the hell he stood for?

 

[Tech_Esq]

Voter turn-outs in 2009, Viriginia and New Jersey, were only slightly more than half the 2008 turn-out for the Democrats. As anyone would expect, Republican candidates did relatively better, against the two Conservatives mega-losers of 2008. Democratic Candidates couldn't even get half the 2008 vote. The female(?) huntress from 2008: Couldn't pull off a win in a small district.

The Republican "ascendancy" is credited to "Independents," and not to a Republican agenda. Again, Sarah Palin couldn't pull off a win in a small district. There may possibly be a relative conservative, routinely voting core, who simply vote as a matter of second-nature. There weren't that many Democrats, in comparison, or liberal leaning independents, with that kind of voting core-value. Possibly this election, in a Southern State, was not much about them, after all.

In Virginia, the top-of-the-Democratic ticket didn't much make of himself, much less any ties to the Liberal legislatures and Executive Branch in Washington, D. C. In New Jersey, the top-of-the-ticket did, and did better.

In Upstate New York, The Rush(?) Limbaugh Conservatives continued at national-joke level status, and lost. In California: the Liberal won. Those two were not state-wide races, and so giant mega-state turnouts would not be expected. The Big-name Conservatives were unable to generate a base, and the Democratic base didn't have to show up in any greater than usual numbers.

Easily, the Democrats didn't see that they had to show up, apparently in New Jersey or in Viriginia. In Virginia, even outreach to the Democratic base didn't hapen. In New Jersey, some happened, and the Democrat did better.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Who names their kid "Rush?" in America? The sisters are name, "Re-Run," "Dribble," and "Free-Throw?")

So you say you did get the "talking points memo"

It was as you would expect. In Virginia the repubs are energized. We've been just waiting to vote to send a message to Washington and finally got the chance. The dems had nothing to get energized about. Their head of party is promising deficits as far as the eye can see. Tripling and quadrupaling down on the profligate spending of Bush. Every month there are fewer and fewer jobs and the guy running for governor had no plan and only offered to raise taxes some more. No surprise there was a dem drop off. They prolly all cut their throats.

NY 23 was a hail mary pass nothing more. To make more of it is foolish.

 

[Tech_Esq]

Unfortunately there will also be more "R"s turning from the center after seeing an "R" centrist cadidate get smashed by her own party. That means more "R"s will lose, and I don't see that as a good thing.

All Palin's interference in NY23 did was toss the Democrats a seat they shouldn't have been able to win. Hoffman outspent and out-star powered his opponents and still lost. Why?

Because abandoning the center = "LOSING" in American politics.

Scuzzy was no "centrist"....Let's disabuse ourselves of that myth, at least.

Really? Pro choice, Pro Gay, Pro Tax Cut, Anti Cap and trade, Pro Iraq.

That sounds pretty down the middle. Unless you are a firebreather.

She was rated more liberal than most of the NY Dems in the state legislature.

How she was even a Republican escapes me. She must have been confused.

 

[Oldandtired]

Not the media talking point you give out when you "win":

White House distances itself from Dem losses
Voters responding to 'local issues that didn't involve the president'

They lost the Governors, that is a fact. But tell me this.

You think Corzine lost because NJ hates Obama? Or because Corzine tried to raise taxes and tolls? And if it was such a message to Obama, why did the GA stay basically the same?

You think Deeds lost as a message to Obama, or because as I sit here a day after the election, I still have no idea what the hell he stood for?

Message to Obama?
No. He is irrelevant. He is nothing more than a figurehead.
Message to the blue dogs?
Well...lets see how thyey respond when push comes to shove on the healthcare bill.

 

[Oldandtired]

Scuzzy was no "centrist"....Let's disabuse ourselves of that myth, at least.

Really? Pro choice, Pro Gay, Pro Tax Cut, Anti Cap and trade, Pro Iraq.

That sounds pretty down the middle. Unless you are a firebreather.

She was rated more liberal than most of the NY Dems in the state legislature.

How she was even a Republican escapes me. She must have been confused.

She lied to the GOP commitee in upsate NY.
She was going to be the "plant" that made ALL legislation in the house "bi-partisan"
The conservative AND the republican parties saw that weeks ago....and they did what they had to do.
Lets move on.

 

[Mr. Capitalism]

She was rated more liberal than most of the NY Dems in the state legislature.

Not so much: Scozzafava is a Conservative Republican (in New York) « Boris Shor, PhD

 

[Jay Canuck]

[SIZE=+1]NY Quotes[/SIZE]
"I have good mentors here. I’m talking about you, Glenn."
-- Doug Hoffman, the birther whackjob candidate in the NY-23 election, praising Glenn Beck as his mentor, Link



"Republican Dede Scozzafava, who dropped out of the race Saturday after right-wing Republican titans backed Doug Hoffman, has endorsed the Democrat in the race, Bill Owens...Scozzafava is just one more Republican woman who's seen her party reject her; Palin and her right-wing friends seem determined to make sure the GOP is small enough to hold NaziCon 2012 in the Wasilla Sports Complex."
-- Joan Walsh, Link


"The GOP is telling every moderate Republican across the country is that it doesn’t matter if you’ve been a loyal Republican for decades, it doesn’t matter if you know the district and the people, it doesn’t matter if you fit the district, and it doesn’t matter that you have given decades to the party. It just doesn’t matter. If the teabagging wingnuts and the shrieking lunatics like Michelle Malkin don’t like you, high profile crackpots like Palin and Dick Armey are going to swoop in and back some clown who doesn’t even live in the district and then shit all over the area’s voters, telling them their interests are 'parochial.'"
-- John Cole, Link

 

[Jay Canuck]

"Tea Party Activists Are the New GOP"
The Nation. - 11-2-09
Richard Viguerie, the legendary hard-right activist who spent much of the past decade arguing that George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were too liberal

​

"Neoconservatism might be summed up as, 'somewhere, shaggy kids might be having sex or smoking dope - so let’s cut interest rates
and invade Iraq!'",
-- Daniel McCarthy, senior editor
of The American Conservative Link

 

[Liability]

She was rated more liberal than most of the NY Dems in the state legislature.

Not so much: Scozzafava is a Conservative Republican (in New York) « Boris Shor, PhD

She is not now and never has been "conservative" in any universe where words have actual meaning.

 

[Tech_Esq]

No, they are far more powerful as far as state momentum goes. Hell, Virginia actually has an interesting record of voting in the opposite party from the President. I think we all can agree that Mark Warner's and Jim McGreevy's elections in 2001 didn't exactly set the table for a Democratic Sweep in 2002...

If Hoffman had won NY23, it would have been status quo. By the end he had as much money and national support as Owens. Actually more. I don't recall VP candidates, Governors and Senators from around the country stumping and fundraising for Owens...

Owens is the miracle.

There have been 5 Republican governors of Virginia in the last 140 years. What's your point again?

Do we really have to sidetrack ourselves into a talk about the Southern Strategy? After the Southern Straegy (Nixon Administration) Virginia has been 5 D's 5 R's. Again, pretty much split down the middle. I don't think the Southern Democrats of the Reconstruction era make much of a difference.

No the last thing I need to hear is more Dem sour grapes about how they can't win a southern state anymore and how that must be racist.

The point is there is not a LONG HISTORY of Virginia electing the opposite. Before Nixon, there were no Repub governors here. When Nixon won, Virginia elected a repub governor. When Nixon won again, repub governor again. When Carter won another Repub governor. Then it flipped back to the dems for 3 governors, then to the repubs for 2 before going back to the dems.

Warner then Kaine certainly did have something to do with Obama winning Virginia. There's a reason Tim Kaine is the DNC Chairman.

 

[The T]

She was rated more liberal than most of the NY Dems in the state legislature.

Not so much: Scozzafava is a Conservative Republican (in New York) « Boris Shor, PhD

She is not now and never has been "conservative" in any universe where words have actual meaning.

But...but...he quoted a PhD...therefore it MUST be so...