November 2013 Jobs Numbers

BDBoop

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Jul 20, 2011
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Don't harsh my zen, Jen!
Firms add 215,000 jobs in Nov., beat estimates

Businesses added 215,000 jobs in November, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday, fueling hopes that the government's closely watched employment report this week will continue a recent string of solid gains.

The ADP survey, along with decent-to-strong reports on the broader economy and home sales, painted a portrait of an economy that's largely shrugging off the effects of the government shutdown and ongoing budget battles in Congress,

The increase in private payrolls was the most in a year and soundly beat economists' consensus forecast that 165,000 jobs were added. Economists anticipate that the Labor Department on Friday will report about 180,000 employment gains in its survey, which tallies net additions among businesses as well as federal, state and local governments.

Good news!
 
Any bets on what those who view any and all news thru a political lens will answer with first? The usual candidates would be:

1. It is just temporary seasonal holiday work
2. We need to create 300k jobs to keep up with population
3. We lost 300k though so net negative
4. They are all part time or low wage
5. Obama ordered the numbers fudged

Did I miss any?
 
Any bets on what those who view any and all news thru a political lens will answer with first? The usual candidates would be:

1. It is just temporary seasonal holiday work
2. We need to create 300k jobs to keep up with population
3. We lost 300k though so net negative
4. They are all part time or low wage
5. Obama ordered the numbers fudged

Did I miss any?

Whatever is wrong, it's Obama's fault. Whatever is right, it isn't what it seems.

:cool:
 
1. It is just temporary seasonal holiday work


Because it is true. Happens every single year.
 
Any bets on what those who view any and all news thru a political lens will answer with first? The usual candidates would be:

1. It is just temporary seasonal holiday work
2. We need to create 300k jobs to keep up with population
3. We lost 300k though so net negative
4. They are all part time or low wage
5. Obama ordered the numbers fudged

Did I miss any?

The numbers always increase this time of year then drop off again by Feb due to seasonal workers, do they not? And those workers are figured into the broader numbers, are they not? In the end those particular numbers are a wash.
 
"The report, which is produced by ADP® , a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics, is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis."


And no, they don't always increase. One year ago the ADP November 2012 report showed only 118k, a sharp drop from October's 157k. Sometimes it is higher in November, sometimes it is lower.
 
COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject. It's 7.8%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that's 14.7%

COSTELLO: You just said 7.8%.

ABBOTT: 7.8% Unemployed.

COSTELLO: Right 7.8% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that's 14.7%.

COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 14.7% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that's 7.8%.

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 7.8% or 14.7%?

ABBOTT: 7.8% are unemployed. 14.7% are out of work.

COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, Congress said you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.

COSTELLO: What point?

ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair.

COSTELLO: To whom?

ABBOTT: The unemployed.

COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work.

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment rolls that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That's how they get it to 7.8%. Otherwise it would be 14.7%. Our govt. doesn't want you to read about 14.7% unemployment.

COSTELLO: That would be tough on those running for reelection.

ABBOTT: Absolutely!

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo.

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an Economist.

COSTELLO: I don't even know what the hell I just said!

ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like Congress.
 
Any bets on what those who view any and all news thru a political lens will answer with first? The usual candidates would be:

1. It is just temporary seasonal holiday work
2. We need to create 300k jobs to keep up with population
3. We lost 300k though so net negative
4. They are all part time or low wage
5. Obama ordered the numbers fudged

Did I miss any?
Yes GDP was revised markedly upward for the 3rd quarter and energy costs have been trending down so jobs are being automated out of existence faster than they can be created. So, the Ds will take it in the shorts even though both trendlines predate 2008.
 
Any bets on what those who view any and all news thru a political lens will answer with first? The usual candidates would be:

1. It is just temporary seasonal holiday work
2. We need to create 300k jobs to keep up with population
3. We lost 300k though so net negative
4. They are all part time or low wage
5. Obama ordered the numbers fudged

Did I miss any?
Yes GDP was revised markedly upward for the 3rd quarter and energy costs have been trending down so jobs are being automated out of existence faster than they can be created. So, the Ds will take it in the shorts even though both trendlines predate 2008.
Translated:
"I do not have a clue, not a clue in the world. But this is what I WANT TO BELIEVE!! And I want the unemployment rate to skyrocket. Because I want the economy to tank. Because I hate obama. Because he is a dem. And a black dem at that."

Because you are a con. And incapable of rational thought. And you care about NO ONE except the very very powerful and wealthy in the nation who want to control the economy and the government. And the really, really funny thing is that you are so ignorant that you believe you are one of their gang.
 
We need to invest more in infrastructure, education, science and renewables ;)
If you are a thinking person, yup. If you look at the countries in the world who are doing well, yup.

BUT, if you are a con, you want the economy to do poorly. And you want to decrease your taxes. And you could care less about the middle class, or the poor. You want to increase the wealth of the wealthy. Period. In the short term. Period. Because, that is what you have been told to want. Period.
 
Any bets on what those who view any and all news thru a political lens will answer with first? The usual candidates would be:

1. It is just temporary seasonal holiday work
2. We need to create 300k jobs to keep up with population
3. We lost 300k though so net negative
4. They are all part time or low wage
5. Obama ordered the numbers fudged

Did I miss any?

You forgot the one where Obama is using the wrong jobs indicator
also the one about it just means more people have stopped looking fo work
 
Yes, I'm sure the rates did decline. That happens when people vanish from staistical formula.

How many more people were deemed "drop outs" this go around?
 
median-income.png
 

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