North Korea: Can the US Win?

[TheTechnologist]

Listen rice for brains. You can’t identify a piece of propaganda when you see it. How about checking out the 1980 bronco in the opening or maybe the ultra modern 1950 trucks.

As far as the wars, I would defer to professionals but it was the lack of will in America, not military ability that determined the outcomes. Korea was a draw, Vietnam a loss, and Iraq a win. Why don’t you pull up the highway of hell picture From the Kuwait war and tell me air power in a conventional war is not Supreme.

Highway of Death - Google Search

Yeah, because North Koreans are in a big open desert with no AA, no indirect fire, and not no big giant mountains of solid Granite with thousands of miles of tunnels and bunkers dug out of them.

Why not just go all Nazi on them and bomb them into rubble and win the day? Oh wait, US did, and lost. BIGLY.

Korea was no more a draw than WW1 was a draw. LOL

And it's Imperia Hubris to think that YOU decided to lose the war. No, you LOST, there's a difference, losing means YOU COULD NOT WIN. Under the circumstances.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

like a lot of members' theories, you also think the US will be like a snowman and just sit there
you think the US doesn't have plans for any and all the aspects you mention?
you think they just sit around reading about WW2 and the Korean war

a huge difference, like PG1 is the US will have air superiority with it's many advantages

The KN06 blunts the initial effects of Air superiority. Which is the point I first make. The second point regarding that is that the air superiority really isn't much on the ground when dealing with these Cold war level mass mobilizations. This isn't bombing 30 talibanis in a cave with a MOAB.

The KN 06 can protect it's own radar from cruise missiles? You know, those things that fly to specific point on earth and blow it up, and cannot be jammed?

Pretty sure they'd just redeploy their radar and launchers into their bunkers during an incoming Cruise Missile attack.

The North Koreans have the ability to see those at the opening stages, until other radar sites are first removed, and even then a person in a fishing boat off the coast could report one flying in by radio if they were that dedicated.

What do you think to be the purpose of using cruise missiles? They are undetectable because you have to use a look down radar, such as AWACs or some other type of AEW radar to detect them.

The first indication you get of the attack will be when the radar explodes!

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Also, the US owned the airspace in Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq/Afghanistan.

And lost the outcome of ALL of those wars.

Your knowledge of history is amazingly absent regarding Korea and Vietnam. I guess all of those MiGs were just figments of our imagination.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Listen rice for brains. You can’t identify a piece of propaganda when you see it. How about checking out the 1980 bronco in the opening or maybe the ultra modern 1950 trucks.

As far as the wars, I would defer to professionals but it was the lack of will in America, not military ability that determined the outcomes. Korea was a draw, Vietnam a loss, and Iraq a win. Why don’t you pull up the highway of hell picture From the Kuwait war and tell me air power in a conventional war is not Supreme.

Highway of Death - Google Search

Yeah, because North Koreans are in a big open desert with no AA, no indirect fire, and not no big giant mountains of solid Granite with thousands of miles of tunnels and bunkers dug out of them.

Why not just go all Nazi on them and bomb them into rubble and win the day? Oh wait, US did, and lost. BIGLY.

Korea was no more a draw than WW1 was a draw. LOL

And it's Imperia Hubris to think that YOU decided to lose the war. No, you LOST, there's a difference, losing means YOU COULD NOT WIN. Under the circumstances.

Where did you garner this incredible treasure trove of misinformation and lies about history?

 

[LuckyDuck]

This thread covers 3 basic areas:

• HARTS
• KN06
• Submarines laying sea-mines

There is a concept most people over-look when discussing anything strategy related: Theory of Victory.

Spoiler Alert, the US doesn't really have a theory of victory in North Korea, but we can get to that later. However, this problem is significant because without a theory of victory there is no way to determine what the appropriate tactical and strategic responses should be. Arguably the US theory of victory in North Korea is to maintain a status quo. A theory of victory framework people often think of is "complete destruction of North Korea" which I suppose means reunification of North Korea on US-South Korean terms unconditionally.

That goes out the window, because China would not accept this outcome, they do have a theory of victory, and if I can post URLs I could link to the lecture sources about what North Korea and Chinese Theory of Victory are. The reason this is worth mentioning is their Theory of Victory is far easier to achieve than the US's. Theirs is to simply keep the Status Quo, which is easy enough, because it's the situation that exists now, and the only alternatives seem to box the US into wars it can't afford or is unwilling to fight.

Enough of that though, on to the meat-and-potatoes. Can the US win a war with North Korea?

Why are the 3 bullet points significant?

1. HARTS - Hardened Artillery Sites. These sites form the nucleus of North Korea's visible strategy to deal with US-ROK forces. In brief, North Korean corps are 2x larger than US corps, and are half comprised of artillery units. What this means is that each corps is expected to act independently with a common objective, like links in a chain, regardless of any command or control in place. North Korea chose this operational strategy because they expected that their top leadership would be decapitated, a decapitating strike will not do anything though to stop North Korea's corps from acting independently and working toward their objectives.
   
   The HARTS themselves form the stronghold around which these Corps and these Artillery units exist. They are frequently built, rebuilt and relocated, and they face away (to the North) from the DMZ. They are positional warfare (think WW1 trench warfare) on steroids. Their survivability against bombing is regarded as high.
   
   Time and space is critical in warfighting, and HARTS buys a lot of time and space. The US for instance may have 500 fighter-bombers in theater. If a turn around time for their sorties is 1 hour, that's only 500 sorties an hour. If a HARTS can survive several hits, and if there are 10,000 HARTS, you can quickly see that these bombing sorties are INSUFFICIENT to deal with the amount of artillery shells North Korea can fire at South Korea and the DMZ.
   
   This gives the North Koreans a significant advantage in forcing the US-ROK into a positional war, a trench war, along the DMZ.
   
   These HARTS extend up the coast line, reducing the possibility of a meaningful amphibious landing. But will be further reinforced by sea-mines, which will be discussed in #3.
   
   
2. KN06 - A more modern, S-300, phased array radar version of anti-Air missiles. This missile is arguably capable of tracking F-22, F-35, and possibly can be incorporated with civilian Air Traffic radars to track B-2 bombers also. The specifics on the KN06 are difficult to figure out (I just couldn't find good available sources on it specifically) looks like the general assumption is it will perform like the S-300, but that the phased array radar is the critical piece and it is difficult to tell but assumed that it is similar in capability of Nebo-M. But the Nebo-M system is a 3 part system capable of tracking B-2 stealth. Likely the North Koreans have the ability to track complex stealth targets like F-22, and F-35. But not to engage B-2s and would have to rely upon a different radar for that that is not integrated to their fire-control systems.
   
   The effectiveness therefore is hard to determine, but the North Koreans are well trained. If their systems are effective, they will be used and used well.
   
   This again, buys time and space for their decision process and their ground armies.
   
   It blunts the impact of US-ROK air forces in striking North Korean targets especially command and control targets which are critical.
   
   It rules out almost completely any chance at destroying North Korea's strategic targets such as Nuclear tipped missiles.
   
   Us Air supremacy may be possible, but would take more time until the KN06 threat is dealt with.
   
   
3. Submarine laid Sea-Mines. This threat is an overlooked mainstay of North Korean strategy. They have 50,000 mines that are modern, in the Korean War they used mines including deep sea bottom laying magnetic activated mines which were of Soviet design. Now they have a more robust and modern equivalent in mine technology that can be most certainly based on China and Russia designs.
   
   The problem the North Koreans and Russians faced in the Korean war was laying the mines when the US had blue-water supremacy. They could effectively mine harbors and prevent invasions like at Wonsan, but they had trouble layering mine fields in depth.
   
   It is self-evident that North Korea's reliance upon a submarine that can't be useful in anti-submarine and surface fleet engagements, but is great at creeping and very silent when running at only a few knots, that their Submarines are intended to circumvent this problem and lay sea-mines in open waters or maybe more strategically.
   
   Such as mining the straits of Korea and Japan, and mining further out on the sea-beds in order to try and do as much threat to the US Navy.
   
   North Korea probably considers that the US is much less likely to tolerate Naval losses than air or ground force casualties. Naval losses are so dramatic and singular, and the US has had barely any damage done by enemy action to its Navy since WW2 that losing a troop ship killing 10,000 marines to a sea-mine would be unfathomable casualty rate in modern US calculation.
   
   Because of this, and experience in Korea shows, the US treats mines like nuclear weapons, and spends all its efforts on ensuring mine-sweeping is finished before moving in troop ships.
   
   This is so significant that it delayed an invasion in Wonsan by 2 weeks, afterwhich the invasion was no longer necessary because of ground developments.
   
   Putting it all together
   
   
   So what does all this mean?
   
   There's a lot of hear-say about what the US can do in North Korea, but the real facts on the ground is...not much.
   
   Going to war in North Korea will be starting a WW1-type war, which was how the Korean war ended, stuck in trenches on the now-DMZ. The geography favors this. And the only way around this is to do amphibious landings, which North Korea has coastal defenses in depth, and multiplied by the effect of sea-mines, which they can lay more effectively using their Submarine's only advantage, stealth.
   
   The air power is thus the US-ROK next best bet, but it is much more limited than it was in Iraq or in the middle east in general, where the US has complete supremacy. At least in the beginning of the war, the skies would be contested because of the KN06. Until those threats have spent their ammunition (North Korea has around 450 missiles), or those threats are destroyed, they will make sorties very dangerous.
   
   There is not enough B52 and B-2s to make any meaningful conventional impact. Their sortie turnarounds are enormous, a B52 flying out of Guam will take 1 full day to do a bombing run.
   
   North Korea has 10s of thousands of targets to bomb. So you can see how these turn around times are not useful in large scale action.
   
   Conclusion

Because of this, I think the US cannot win a war in North Korea. Because this does not meet the criteria of any reasonable US "theory of victory". There is no middle ground where the US goes to war and North Korea conditionally surrenders like the Emperor of Japan, keeping their President Kim Jong Un, but losing their Nuclear Weapons, and returning to a Status Quo.

Since that theory of victory is off the table, it is arguable that given the above problems, the US cannot achieve its only practical theory of victory, total destruction of North Korea, with any reasonable cost.

The cost is so enormous, without factoring in variables such as Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear weapons.

North Korea can Nuke Guam, can Nuke Hawaii, this delays US response even further.

Can North Korean forces push into South Korea? If there's no positional war, can they push to Busan?

If they push to Busan can the US reinforce the Peninsula or will Sea-mines have too great an impact?

Etc.

These problems alone raise the costs so high, that the American people would not tolerate a victory and the US economy may not be able to suffer it.

This conventional problem alone is why North Korea has not been dealt with in 50 years, and why it won't be dealt with now except by a madman who clearly has no understanding of Strategy, costs, and what the end-game should look like in the first place.

The U.S. just needs to convince South Korea that North Korea must be considered a Nuke Nation and advise that they have two options:
1. Maintain a nuclear free South Korea and hope that North Korea doesn't act against it.
2. Publically agree to accept some nuclear cruise missiles and watch the North, foam at the mouth.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Listen rice for brains. You can’t identify a piece of propaganda when you see it. How about checking out the 1980 bronco in the opening or maybe the ultra modern 1950 trucks.

As far as the wars, I would defer to professionals but it was the lack of will in America, not military ability that determined the outcomes. Korea was a draw, Vietnam a loss, and Iraq a win. Why don’t you pull up the highway of hell picture From the Kuwait war and tell me air power in a conventional war is not Supreme.

Highway of Death - Google Search

Yeah, because North Koreans are in a big open desert with no AA, no indirect fire, and not no big giant mountains of solid Granite with thousands of miles of tunnels and bunkers dug out of them.

Why not just go all Nazi on them and bomb them into rubble and win the day? Oh wait, US did, and lost. BIGLY.

Korea was no more a draw than WW1 was a draw. LOL

And it's Imperia Hubris to think that YOU decided to lose the war. No, you LOST, there's a difference, losing means YOU COULD NOT WIN. Under the circumstances.

What is this revisionist leftist history shit? The reason we didn't win Korea is that MacArthur's hands were tied by the ROE, also, China started sending troops. It was the same situation in Vietnam with the ROE.

 

[dannyboys]

Also, the US cannot Nuke North Korea, the winds blow into the heart of China, you would be Nuking China.

Also, North Korea builds bunkers for Nuclear attack, their subway system is 360 feet under ground in granite bedrock.

Good luck Nuking North Korea off the map.

The US has no such protections, and even one single Nuke hitting New York City might destroy the US.

The US cannot suffer a 25% GDP loss as its financial center is vaporized and 10 million people are incinerated.

The entire NK military is only a few meals away from starving to death or being eaten by their tapeworms.
The US has technology that can disable ANY rocket batterie's electronics.

 

[dannyboys]

Didnt nk shoot missiles onto their own populace?
Sounds like it would be an easy win. We all just sit back and drink yager bombs

Didn't US warplanes crash onto people's houses in suburbs? Yes, happens all the time.

Guess the US is a "sheet" show as you call it?

Ooh ooh! Remember when a US munitions ship BLEW-UP in harbor killing hundreds and destroying a square mile of a US major port during WW2?

Guess the Germans and Japs had that war in the bag!

Is The Pervert paying you by the word or sentence?
Your bullshit post is so full of grade nine 'conclusions' it's laughable.
I can't WAIT to watch NK athletes compete in the winter olympics!
They will be shitting tape worms everywhere.
God help any of them and their families who don't win Gold when they return home.

 

[dannyboys]

I think the problem we keep forgetting is that most North Koreans are probably normal.
They just have the misfortune of having an insanely violent person in charge of their armed forces.

I do not believe that most Koreans are 'normal'.
I believe they have been brainwashed since birth to actually believe the Pervert is an actual GOD.
It's exactly the same as the zombies who became followers of Jim Jones.
If the Pervert ordered a million citizens to jump into the ocean and drown they would without hesitation.

 

[Indeependent]

I think the problem we keep forgetting is that most North Koreans are probably normal.
They just have the misfortune of having an insanely violent person in charge of their armed forces.

I do not believe the most Koreans are 'normal'.
I believe they have been brainwashed since birth to actually believe the Pervert is an actual GOD.
It's exactly the same as the zombies who became followers of Jim Jones.
If the Pervert ordered a million citizens to jump into the ocean and drown they would without hesitation.

I don't know.
I think if they didn't jump, he'd have them executed.

 

[dannyboys]

What did the NK soldier say to the other?

I'll split that grain of rice with you.

North Korean soldiers have more rations than the Japanese had during WW2. Just saying.

So why did the soldier who escaped have a four foot long tapeworm in him?
He came from a prosperous family.
The 'rations' fed to the NK military are starvation rations. Putried rice and rotten cabbages and the odd rat if they can catch it.
Ever wonder why there are literally NO dogs or cats in NK? No birds. No fucking anything to eat.
There are fewer rats in NK than there were White unicorns grazing on BONOBO's Rose garden lawn.

 

[Syriusly]

like a lot of members' theories, you also think the US will be like a snowman and just sit there
you think the US doesn't have plans for any and all the aspects you mention?
you think they just sit around reading about WW2 and the Korean war

a huge difference, like PG1 is the US will have air superiority with it's many advantages

The KN06 blunts the initial effects of Air superiority. Which is the point I first make. The second point regarding that is that the air superiority really isn't much on the ground when dealing with these Cold war level mass mobilizations. This isn't bombing 30 talibanis in a cave with a MOAB.

KN06
Deployment
The system underwent final testing on May 28, 2017 with KCNA reporting that 'glitches' previously identified during testing had been resolved. It said the new system would be mass-produced and deployed across the country.[6][7]

As many as 156 KN-06 launchers could be operational according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.[8]

wow- as many as 156 launchers eh?

Of a system that has not been battle tested. That is radar directed.

All of which means that radar and KN-06 would be among the initial targets.

So while planes are trying to hit KN06 because of the threat they present, that's even LESS targets available to air-power at the critical opening stages when a North Korean break through of the DMZ is possible.

If North Koreans are contained in their HARTS on the DMZ, then not a lot will change in the battlespace.

But if they break through, they would wreak havoc on the South Korean side. There's not a lot stopping them from the DMZ to Busan.

You mean other than:
a) the terrain
b) North Korea trying to maintain a supply chain and
c) American and SK tanks that the NK can't touch.

 

[Syriusly]

Also, the US owned the airspace in Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq/Afghanistan.

And lost the outcome of ALL of those wars.

As discussed before- the United States absolutely won the war in Iraq- the military of Iraq was destroyed absolutely- and the leadership deposed.

Arguably the United States may have lost the peace- due to poor planning for the aftermath of the war- but your claim that we lost the Iraq war is just a lie.

Afghanistan is a different issue- the only reason we didn't 'win' in Afghanistan is because of the decision to divert forces from Afghanistan to Iraq.

The huge difference between Korea- Afghanistan and Vietnam- is that the population of modern South Korea are prosperous and very anti-NK- while the populations in Afghanistan and Vietnam - and even Korea in 1950- were not firmly on one side or another. The South Koreans would be fighting for their homeland against a known enemy.

 

[Syriusly]

like a lot of members' theories, you also think the US will be like a snowman and just sit there
you think the US doesn't have plans for any and all the aspects you mention?
you think they just sit around reading about WW2 and the Korean war

a huge difference, like PG1 is the US will have air superiority with it's many advantages

The KN06 blunts the initial effects of Air superiority. Which is the point I first make. The second point regarding that is that the air superiority really isn't much on the ground when dealing with these Cold war level mass mobilizations. This isn't bombing 30 talibanis in a cave with a MOAB.

The KN 06 can protect it's own radar from cruise missiles? You know, those things that fly to specific point on earth and blow it up, and cannot be jammed?

Pretty sure they'd just redeploy their radar and launchers into their bunkers during an incoming Cruise Missile attack.

The North Koreans have the ability to see those at the opening stages, until other radar sites are first removed, and even then a person in a fishing boat off the coast could report one flying in by radio if they were that dedicated.

If they use the radar- it gets blown up.

If they don't use the radar- then the KN06 is useless.

 

[TheTechnologist]

like a lot of members' theories, you also think the US will be like a snowman and just sit there
you think the US doesn't have plans for any and all the aspects you mention?
you think they just sit around reading about WW2 and the Korean war

a huge difference, like PG1 is the US will have air superiority with it's many advantages

The KN06 blunts the initial effects of Air superiority. Which is the point I first make. The second point regarding that is that the air superiority really isn't much on the ground when dealing with these Cold war level mass mobilizations. This isn't bombing 30 talibanis in a cave with a MOAB.

The KN 06 can protect it's own radar from cruise missiles? You know, those things that fly to specific point on earth and blow it up, and cannot be jammed?

Pretty sure they'd just redeploy their radar and launchers into their bunkers during an incoming Cruise Missile attack.

The North Koreans have the ability to see those at the opening stages, until other radar sites are first removed, and even then a person in a fishing boat off the coast could report one flying in by radio if they were that dedicated.

If they use the radar- it gets blown up.

If they don't use the radar- then the KN06 is useless.

If they use Radar it gets blown-up? LOL in what fantasy does the US have magic weapons that work 100% of the time and hit anywhere without delay?

Is the US air force supposed to just wait hours, days, weeks for all the KN06 to be destroyed?

Will the North Koreans turn on their radars if there's no planes in the sky to shoot down?

 

[whitehall]

Is the post intended to be a freaking joke? Maybe the question could have been asked in 1952 when little timid Harry Truman was afraid to curb the ego trip of his possibly age related mentally impaired former WW1 general. Red China and Russia were in a shooting war against the U.S. back in Truman's time while his out of control general was tmaking wild claims and threatening nuclear retaliation. The liberal media that never saw a democrat they didn't like had enough and they labeled Truman's incompetence as the "forgotten war" and walked away rather than criticizing the administration. Thanks to the criminal incompetence of the Clinton administration that sold nuclear technology to N.K. and ICBM technology to China it seems that today's little pot bellied pig has a token threat of missiles that may or may not travel a couple of football fields before crashing. With the cooperation of our allies in China and Russia and NATO as well as the rest of the freaking world, the U.S. Military could eliminate N.K. as a threat in a couple of days of conventional air strikes.

 

[TheTechnologist]

Is the post intended to be a freaking joke? Maybe the question could have been asked in 1952 when little timid Harry Truman was afraid to curb the ego trip of his possibly age related mentally impaired former WW1 general. Red China and Russia were in a shooting war against the U.S. back in Truman's time while his general was threatening nuclear retaliation. The liberal media that never saw a democrat they didn't like had enough and they labeled Truman's negligence as the "forgotten war" and walked away rather than criticizing the administration. Thanks to the criminal incompetence of the Clinton administration that sold nuclear technology to N.K. and ICBM technology to China it seems that today's little pot bellied pig has a token threat of missiles that may or may not travel a couple of football fields before crashing. The U.S. could eliminate N.K. as a threat in a couple of days of conventional air strikes.

Next time you want to post shit I suggest you just eat it instead.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

like a lot of members' theories, you also think the US will be like a snowman and just sit there
you think the US doesn't have plans for any and all the aspects you mention?
you think they just sit around reading about WW2 and the Korean war

a huge difference, like PG1 is the US will have air superiority with it's many advantages

The KN06 blunts the initial effects of Air superiority. Which is the point I first make. The second point regarding that is that the air superiority really isn't much on the ground when dealing with these Cold war level mass mobilizations. This isn't bombing 30 talibanis in a cave with a MOAB.

The KN 06 can protect it's own radar from cruise missiles? You know, those things that fly to specific point on earth and blow it up, and cannot be jammed?

Pretty sure they'd just redeploy their radar and launchers into their bunkers during an incoming Cruise Missile attack.

The North Koreans have the ability to see those at the opening stages, until other radar sites are first removed, and even then a person in a fishing boat off the coast could report one flying in by radio if they were that dedicated.

If they use the radar- it gets blown up.

If they don't use the radar- then the KN06 is useless.

If they use Radar it gets blown-up? LOL in what fantasy does the US have magic weapons that work 100% of the time and hit anywhere without delay?

Is the US air force supposed to just wait hours, days, weeks for all the KN06 to be destroyed?

Will the North Koreans turn on their radars if there's no planes in the sky to shoot down?

I'll ask again. What is your expertise in these matters? You appear to be increasingly clueless.

 

[TheTechnologist]

The KN06 blunts the initial effects of Air superiority. Which is the point I first make. The second point regarding that is that the air superiority really isn't much on the ground when dealing with these Cold war level mass mobilizations. This isn't bombing 30 talibanis in a cave with a MOAB.

The KN 06 can protect it's own radar from cruise missiles? You know, those things that fly to specific point on earth and blow it up, and cannot be jammed?

Pretty sure they'd just redeploy their radar and launchers into their bunkers during an incoming Cruise Missile attack.

The North Koreans have the ability to see those at the opening stages, until other radar sites are first removed, and even then a person in a fishing boat off the coast could report one flying in by radio if they were that dedicated.

If they use the radar- it gets blown up.

If they don't use the radar- then the KN06 is useless.

If they use Radar it gets blown-up? LOL in what fantasy does the US have magic weapons that work 100% of the time and hit anywhere without delay?

Is the US air force supposed to just wait hours, days, weeks for all the KN06 to be destroyed?

Will the North Koreans turn on their radars if there's no planes in the sky to shoot down?

I'll ask again. What is your expertise in these matters? You appear to be increasingly clueless.

I'm clueless? But you don't actually provide any retort to what I say, you just say "the US will bomb it".

Sure.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

The KN 06 can protect it's own radar from cruise missiles? You know, those things that fly to specific point on earth and blow it up, and cannot be jammed?

Pretty sure they'd just redeploy their radar and launchers into their bunkers during an incoming Cruise Missile attack.

The North Koreans have the ability to see those at the opening stages, until other radar sites are first removed, and even then a person in a fishing boat off the coast could report one flying in by radio if they were that dedicated.

If they use the radar- it gets blown up.

If they don't use the radar- then the KN06 is useless.

If they use Radar it gets blown-up? LOL in what fantasy does the US have magic weapons that work 100% of the time and hit anywhere without delay?

Is the US air force supposed to just wait hours, days, weeks for all the KN06 to be destroyed?

Will the North Koreans turn on their radars if there's no planes in the sky to shoot down?

I'll ask again. What is your expertise in these matters? You appear to be increasingly clueless.

I'm clueless? But you don't actually provide any retort to what I say, you just say "the US will bomb it".

Sure.

So, you have no expertise in military matters generally, much less the DPRK specifically.