News Flash: 538 Blog's Nate Silver Is Fallible

[Dante]

News Flash: 538 Blog's Nate Silver Is Fallible

And so is every other pollster and analyst, so why is the right so intent on hanging what happens with a prediction from Nate's 538 Blog around the neck of everyone one to the left of the Tea Party?

You will see the right wing attacking the source and that is expected, but what is more insidious is how they are setting up a narrative for a new talking point: Nate Silver was wrong and Democrats and all leftists (everyone to the left if the Tea Party) are stupid.

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Post that you like or believe in Nate's analysis and it falls on deaf ears. Post that you are betting on Nate's analysis in addition to the analysis of others, and it falls -- on deaf ears (must state obvious here, or else it will be misused by dense-as-brick wingnuts against me -- the 'deaf ears' is a metaphoric tool). See a pattern here?

The right has a tactic of always hedging it's bets. It attacked Romney before his surge, so that they cold somehow say they did not select him - rinos did. The right is now laying the ground work to keep it's base alarmed and angry in the probability that Romney loses -- Obama wins. Watch for it. Armies of straw men will be leading the charge, along with brigades of red herrings and battalions of talking point memos filled with cognitive dissonance that only a Tea Party Whacko could love.



Nate Silver is fallible. But he drives Right Wing World Crazy.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

 

[Billo_Really]

News Flash: 538 Blog's Nate Silver Is Fallible

And so is every other pollster and analyst, so why is the right so intent on hanging what happens with a prediction from Nate's 538 Blog around the neck of everyone one to the left of the Tea Party?

You will see the right wing attacking the source and that is expected, but what is more insidious is how they are setting up a narrative for a new talking point: Nate Silver was wrong and Democrats and all leftists (everyone to the left if the Tea Party) are stupid.

---

Post that you like or believe in Nate's analysis and it falls on deaf ears. Post that you are betting on Nate's analysis in addition to the analysis of others, and it falls -- on deaf ears (must state obvious here, or else it will be misused by dense-as-brick wingnuts against me -- the 'deaf ears' is a metaphoric tool). See a pattern here?

The right has a tactic of always hedging it's bets. It attacked Romney before his surge, so that they cold somehow say they did not select him - rinos did. The right is now laying the ground work to keep it's base alarmed and angry in the probability that Romney loses -- Obama wins. Watch for it. Armies of straw men will be leading the charge, along with brigades of red herrings and battalions of talking point memos filled with cognitive dissonance that only a Tea Party Whacko could love.



Nate Silver is fallible. But he drives Right Wing World Crazy.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

This is the new "lunacy club" on the right-wing block of diminished grey matter. They are called...

'Nate Silver Truthers'​

"...in recent days, the Romney-Ryan campaign has claimed that it's moving ahead [and] is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Despite zero evidence that Romney has made any gains since receiving a healthy bounce from the first debate, reporters appear to be buying it, with a raft of lazy stories about Mitt Romney's supposed “momentum.”

But there's a problem with this latest ruse of lies, it is Nate Silver's computer program he wrote that is 99.9% accurate in every election since 2008.

A significant problem for conservatives bent on spinning this alternate reality is New York Times ' polling guru Nate Silver and his 538 forecast model, which called 49 out of 50 states accurately in 2008 and is considered the industry's gold standard (the model also pretty much nailed the 2010 mid-terms). As I write, Silver's model gives Barack Obama a 68 percent chance of winning reelection, with a projected 288 Electoral College votes.

But just like the birthers and the baggers, they're too stupid to even talk about this subject with anything close to a reasonable understanding of what they're criticizing. They're claiming the "program" he wrote, is "just his opinion" and he "tweaks the results" and the usual blah-blah ad hominems. However, contrary to their claims, all he does, is plug in the results from different state polls and the program does the rest.

No model is perfect -- as Nate Silver would be the first to admit -- but his 538 model is the result of years of statistical numbers-crunching. Having created it long before this election got underway, Silver simply inputs the data from every poll published – not selecting which confirm his view of the race – and the economic data, and runs thousands of simulations per day using those numbers.

But what else can you expect from an entire party of people so dumb and partisanly blind, that they'd argue gravity plays no role in plane crashes? That's how stupid these people are.

 

[TallPine]

The typical republican is never restrained by the facts. If he or she does not agree with the 538 forecast then it must be fallible. No evidence or proof is required in the GOP world. Somethings cannot be imagined and then perceived as true. For example: 270.

 

[Amazed]

What these Ledty loons aren't saying is that Silver has the solid EV count at 185-180....

 

[Dante]

Nate Silver's analysis is pretty good. So is Cassidy's Count

The right is attacking each of them. Why not attack the analysis in a constructive way?

 

[Dante]

Right Wing World Hysterical and Foaming at the Asshole over this tidbit...


NYT Pollster Nate Silver: 'I Don't Intend to Vote This Year'


Only Nate Silver is an analyst, not a pollster. He does not have a poll. He analyzes polls.

 

[Dante]

October 31, 2012, 10:38 am
Oct. 30: What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote
By NATE SILVER Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Mitt Romney and President Obama remain roughly tied in national polls, while state polls are suggestive of a lead for Mr. Obama in the Electoral College. Most people take this to mean that there is a fairly good chance of a split outcome between the Electoral College and the popular vote, as we had in 2000. But the story may not be so simple...

...Perhaps the most intriguing result from this group is the poll from Google Consumer Surveys. (Yes, Google has begin to conduct surveys online.) That poll had Mr. Obama ahead by four percentage points, an improvement from a roughly 1-point deficit for Mr. Obama in their prior survey last week.

The Google survey could be an indication that the effects of the hurricane will play somewhat to Mr. Obama’s political advantage. But it will probably be Thursday or Friday, once power and some of the national tracking surveys that have been discontinued have come back online, before we can say so with much confidence.

In the meantime, the state polls continue to hint that Mr. Obama remains the favorite to win the Electoral College — and if the state polls are right, he may well be the favorite in the popular vote as well.

Rational Irrationality : The New Yorker
October 30, 2012
Romney Has a Christie Problem and a FEMA Problem
Posted by John Cassidy

 

[Toro]

It's typical hackery. People with little understanding attacking someone because they disagree with their conclusion without understanding what he does.

I like Nate Silver, even if I disagree with him. He does good work.

Here is a very interesting interview with Silver.

'Signal' And 'Noise': Prediction As Art And Science : NPR

http://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=162594751

 

[Dante]

It's typical hackery. People with little understanding attacking someone because they disagree with their conclusion without understanding what he does.

I like Nate Silver, even if I disagree with him. He does good work.

Here is a very interesting interview with Silver.

'Signal' And 'Noise': Prediction As Art And Science : NPR

'Signal' And 'Noise': Prediction As Art And Science : NPR

true.
It is one thing to disagree with the guy, but to attack him out of right field just adds nothing to the debate

 

[Dante]

Cassidy's Count and Dante!!!