Newest Daily Tracking Poll Puts Trump At 50%

[theHawk]

Sorry libs. Trump is polling at 50%.

So much for fake news reports that he's tanking.

Drudge Report

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Related Articles



Tuesday, March 21, 2017

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 33% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -7 (see trends).

Dems much prefer their polls that count illegal voters and non-citizens' opinions.

 

[Pogo]

I think we all know that any poll can be subtly written to elicit the likelihood of a particular response... A Drudge poll is likely to be a diametrically opposite reflection of a HufPo poll. What does a poll matter at this point in time? Midterms are a ways out and the fluidity of the political perception is rather volatile these days anyway...

Healthcare is likely to be Trump's Achilles heel anyway, not the Russians!!!

Legitimate polls cannot be subtly written for that effect. Such polls do exist, called "push polls", but they're quickly identified and dismissed once their methodology is examined. Legitimate polls have worked into a science how to carefully word poll questions so as to never suggest one choice or another (and are rotated so as not to establish a pattern). Any poll should be judged on its methodology and whether it's following those guidelines.

Secondly this is not a "Drudge poll", it's a Rasmussen poll that Drudge linked. Again that poll's methodology can be accessed and examined. Far as I know Drudge doesn't even do polls.

Here's a handy page of all known polls, reported individually, rated and weighted for methodoloty, and also averaged together. You'll find individual polls there that both exceed the Rasmussen's 50% report, and others that report lower than Gallup's 37%. You'll also find a separate page where they explain how they do it, if you want all the nuts and bolts.

 

[KeiserC]

I commend your insight into the nuances of the metrics in question. I hope all involved with political metrics subscribe to your 'above reproach' methodology... Not aware of the polls in question but surprising that a Reuters poll would have him at 50%... Polling not my thing, just what I've gleaned over the years from Dick Morris, Jay Severin etc.

 

[Pogo]

I commend your insight into the nuances of the metrics in question. I hope all involved with political metrics subscribe to your 'above reproach' methodology... Not aware of the polls in question but surprising that a Reuters poll would have him at 50%... Polling not my thing, just what I've gleaned over the years from Dick Morris, Jay Severin etc.

I had training in it long ago. There's a careful science to how you word things. That's assuming an unbiased poll is what you want, which is what those who commission them will get the most benefit from and hence makes them more valuable.

The other kind of course is the fake poll that's deliberately designed to push an agenda or sell a product. But they'll never disclose their methodologies, they'll just bellow the "results". Any poll should have its methodology examined to be sure it's taking a representative sample, asking open-ended questions and getting honest results.

The 538 page rates those polls it lists on that basis. They're all about statistics. You can tell they are 'cuz they'll have lots of baseball predictions.

 

[Claudette]

Polling protocol skewed and is not accurate at all.

'sides, it's drudge, and it lies just as much as mud.

Funny how you think the polls you think are real aren't skewed.

Color me shocked. LOL

 

[JakeStarkey]

Polling protocol skewed and is not accurate at all.

'sides, it's drudge, and it lies just as much as mud.

Funny how you think the polls you think are real aren't skewed.

Color me shocked. LOL

I said the polling protocol is slewed. Any poll that relies on in part repetitive internet polling is slewed and skewed.

 

[Pogo]

Polling protocol skewed and is not accurate at all.

'sides, it's drudge, and it lies just as much as mud.

Funny how you think the polls you think are real aren't skewed.

Color me shocked. LOL

I said the polling protocol is slewed. Any poll that relies on in part repetitive internet polling is slewed and skewed.

Internet polling is notoriously unreliable.
Is that what the OP was?

 

[Pogo]

I think we all know that any poll can be subtly written to elicit the likelihood of a particular response... A Drudge poll is likely to be a diametrically opposite reflection of a HufPo poll. What does a poll matter at this point in time? Midterms are a ways out and the fluidity of the political perception is rather volatile these days anyway...

Healthcare is likely to be Trump's Achilles heel anyway, not the Russians!!!

Legitimate polls cannot be subtly written for that effect. Such polls do exist, called "push polls", but they're quickly identified and dismissed once their methodology is examined. Legitimate polls have worked into a science how to carefully word poll questions so as to never suggest one choice or another (and are rotated so as not to establish a pattern). Any poll should be judged on its methodology and whether it's following those guidelines.

Secondly this is not a "Drudge poll", it's a Rasmussen poll that Drudge linked. Again that poll's methodology can be accessed and examined. Far as I know Drudge doesn't even do polls.

Here's a handy page of all known polls, reported individually, rated and weighted for methodoloty, and also averaged together. You'll find individual polls there that both exceed the Rasmussen's 50% report, and others that report lower than Gallup's 37%. You'll also find a separate page where they explain how they do it, if you want all the nuts and bolts.

The 538 list of polls grades each one for its methodology. The Rasmussen poll in the OP gets a C+ grade, which seems to be the lowest. The Gallup poll recently quoted is slightly higher at B-

Their "A" polls are showing currently 46/44 adjusted to 44/49 (pos/neg) and 43/51 adjusted to 42/52. Note that the latter is a Fox Noise poll (with other participating pollers)

 

[JakeStarkey]

Pogo, thank you. I encourage all to examine how a business's polling protocol is conducted. If it includes any type of internet voting, you be assured that it will skew in favor by 5 to 10%.

 

[KeiserC]

I really do take my hat off to all the metrics wonks out there who strive for scientific excellence. Historically, even Nate Silver, in addition to some of the best in the business get it wrong (virtually all wrong 11/16) because at the end of the day they, subjectively, are moving these sophisticated metrics models to reflect / weigh what they deem to be "objective" but their judgement in doing so is subjective.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I really do take my hat off to all the metrics wonks out there who strive for scientific excellence. Historically, even Nate Silver, in addition to some of the best in the business get it wrong (virtually all wrong 11/16) because at the end of the day they, subjectively, are moving these sophisticated metrics models to reflect / weigh what they deem to be "objective" but their judgement in doing so is subjective.

As is your opinion above.

 

[Roudy]

Media didn't make him and thus can't break him... to borrow Rush's line

Rump literally owes all he is to Media.

Endless gossip articles.... "Rump the game" ads.... fake wrestling.... endless call-ins to Fox and Fiends.... playing an asshole on a "reality" show..... "send in your pee for vitamins" ads.... endless pointless fueds with Rosie O'Donnell and "Miss Piggy" et al.... flesh contests..... endless pointless photo ops..... "John Miller" and "John Baron".... without mass media NONE of that exists. Literally, none.

Sounds like your average day of CNN programming.

 

[Pogo]

Media didn't make him and thus can't break him... to borrow Rush's line

Rump literally owes all he is to Media.

Endless gossip articles.... "Rump the game" ads.... fake wrestling.... endless call-ins to Fox and Fiends.... playing an asshole on a "reality" show..... "send in your pee for vitamins" ads.... endless pointless fueds with Rosie O'Donnell and "Miss Piggy" et al.... flesh contests..... endless pointless photo ops..... "John Miller" and "John Baron".... without mass media NONE of that exists. Literally, none.

Sounds like your average day of CNN programming.

Sounds like the average day of channel-flipping on any television anywhere ever. That's why I don't have one.

Point stands as posted.

 

[Pogo]

I think we all know that any poll can be subtly written to elicit the likelihood of a particular response... A Drudge poll is likely to be a diametrically opposite reflection of a HufPo poll. What does a poll matter at this point in time? Midterms are a ways out and the fluidity of the political perception is rather volatile these days anyway...

Healthcare is likely to be Trump's Achilles heel anyway, not the Russians!!!

Legitimate polls cannot be subtly written for that effect. Such polls do exist, called "push polls", but they're quickly identified and dismissed once their methodology is examined. Legitimate polls have worked into a science how to carefully word poll questions so as to never suggest one choice or another (and are rotated so as not to establish a pattern). Any poll should be judged on its methodology and whether it's following those guidelines.

Secondly this is not a "Drudge poll", it's a Rasmussen poll that Drudge linked. Again that poll's methodology can be accessed and examined. Far as I know Drudge doesn't even do polls.

Here's a handy page of all known polls, reported individually, rated and weighted for methodoloty, and also averaged together. You'll find individual polls there that both exceed the Rasmussen's 50% report, and others that report lower than Gallup's 37%. You'll also find a separate page where they explain how they do it, if you want all the nuts and bolts.

The 538 list of polls grades each one for its methodology. The Rasmussen poll in the OP gets a C+ grade, which seems to be the lowest. The Gallup poll recently quoted is slightly higher at B-

Their "A" polls are showing currently 46/44 adjusted to 44/49 (pos/neg) and 43/51 adjusted to 42/52. Note that the latter is a Fox Noise poll (with other participating pollers)

From that site's info page on how they grade polls:

>>
Adjusting for house effects

Polls are adjusted for house effects, which are persistent differences between the poll and the trend line. Rasmussen Reports, for example, has consistently shown much better approval ratings for Trump than other pollsters have, while Gallup’s have been slightly worse. The house effects adjustment counteracts these tendencies. So, a recent Rasmussen Reports poll that showed Trump at 50 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval was adjusted by the model to 45 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval.and a lower disapproval rating for Trump than the consensus if it has a lot of undecided voters.">8 Meanwhile, a recent Gallup poll that had him at 43 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval was adjusted to 44 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval. After adjusting for house effects, therefore, these polls — which had seemed to be in considerable disagreement with each other — are actually telling a fairly consistent story. <<