NCAA Football CFP Thread: My Rankings, and Scenarios

[multivita-man]

Why more games to watch?

I think some years it'll work out well, and others not so much. Some years you'll have a program like UCF, Houston, or SMU get a number 12 spot and surprisingly make a game of it against a number 5 team. In other years, there might be some blowouts, but there have been blowouts in the top-4 format, too.

There's no way the Committee will get the top 12 teams perfect, but at least with 12 teams, they're sure to include all of the elite-performing, undefeated or 1-loss teams during the year. The debate will be about whether a 2- or perhaps even a 3-loss team deserves a shot at being a Cinderella, rather than which conference champion or 1-loss team gets screwed. I think 12 teams would work but I agree that there can be too many teams, so I hope it doesn't expand beyond that.

They may decide to eliminate bowl games and move them to week 0 as seasonal kick-off classics. If they do that, I could actually see the NCAA expanding the playoffs to 16 or even more teams as crazy as that sounds. It wouldn't be great for the sport but there would be more money in it.

 

[multivita-man]

This will be the 2nd non Southern team in the last 20 years to win a natty. (if you count USC as Southern).

I don't think there's much question that the best players come from the Gulf Coast states, which isn't to say that there aren't good players elsewhere, but there's just so much talent from East Texas all the way over the Florida and Georgia.

With that being said, NIL and the portal have probably leveled the playing field for teams outside those recruiting areas. It's easier to convince a player from Florida or Texas to move all the way to Oregon or Nebraska if he's getting paid. Programs with good NIL collectives and which are willing to pay players up front are going to do extremely well in the portal and even recruiting directly out of HS.

I think Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and others will continue to get good players and coaches but they no longer have a lock on their traditional recruiting strongholds, and other teams that lack a recruiting edge can assemble a good team much faster through the portal.

 

[sealybobo]

I think some years it'll work out well, and others not so much. Some years you'll have a program like UCF, Houston, or SMU get a number 12 spot and surprisingly make a game of it against a number 5 team. In other years, there might be some blowouts, but there have been blowouts in the top-4 format, too.

There's no way the Committee will get the top 12 teams perfect, but at least with 12 teams, they're sure to include all of the elite-performing, undefeated or 1-loss teams during the year. The debate will be about whether a 2- or perhaps even a 3-loss team deserves a shot at being a Cinderella, rather than which conference champion or 1-loss team gets screwed. I think 12 teams would work but I agree that there can be too many teams, so I hope it doesn't expand beyond that.

They may decide to eliminate bowl games and move them to week 0 as seasonal kick-off classics. If they do that, I could actually see the NCAA expanding the playoffs to 16 or even more teams as crazy as that sounds. It wouldn't be great for the sport but there would be more money in it.

Numbers 8-12 this year all lost 2 games. Number 13 lost 3 so this year your scenario works out perfectly.

If we only did top 8 only, we'd have to decide which of the 5 two loss teams gets in. Your way they all get in. Here's why I like this. A reasonable expectation Michigan will have a chance as long as they don't lose more than 2 games. You can lose 2 games and still have a chance.

Now, what if LSU, Notre Dame and Arizona wouldn't have lost 3 games? We'd be in the same boat arguing over who should get the 10th, 11th and 12th spot.

 

[multivita-man]

Numbers 8-12 this year all lost 2 games. Number 13 lost 3 so this year your scenario works out perfectly.

If we only did top 8 only, we'd have to decide which of the 5 two loss teams gets in. Your way they all get in. Here's why I like this. A reasonable expectation Michigan will have a chance as long as they don't lose more than 2 games. You can lose 2 games and still have a chance.

Now, what if LSU, Notre Dame and Arizona wouldn't have lost 3 games? We'd be in the same boat arguing over who should get the 10th, 11th and 12th spot.

I'm a lot more okay arguing who gets into the 12th spot as opposed to who gets into the 4th. I think when the 4-team playoff come up, we'd had a number of years in which there were some 1- and 2-loss teams. Most years, the 4-team format works, but every so often, there's a year like this one when someone's going to get screwed. Nobody can make that argument in a 12-team format. They can argue that 13 is more deserving than 12, but that's it.

 

[Couchpotato]

They would be Southwestern.

For most people, when you refer to a place being Southern, it means Southeastern.

South western is Arizona, New Mexico.

USC is just California.

Washington is NW.

 

[sealybobo]

I'm a lot more okay arguing who gets into the 12th spot as opposed to who gets into the 4th. I think when the 4-team playoff come up, we'd had a number of years in which there were some 1- and 2-loss teams. Most years, the 4-team format works, but every so often, there's a year like this one when someone's going to get screwed. Nobody can make that argument in a 12-team format. They can argue that 13 is more deserving than 12, but that's it.

How about just 8? Then no one gets a bi. I don't like the top 4 teams get a bi with the 12 format.

You know what else I don't like? Michigan is 13 and 0. Georgia number 6 is 12-1. Because they played in their conference championship game. Michigan had to play Iowa for the Big 10 but Ohio State is 11-1? That means Ohio State got to play one less game. One less game to get beat up.

Numbers 9, 10, 11 and 12 played one fewer games. You must account for this. I say anyone who got in and had to play one more game gets a bi. OR, I don't understand why Ohio and Michigan don't play for the Big 10 championship. Iowa? Iowa finished 10 and 3. But even they played 13 games. Ohio State played only 12 and they get in?

So I don't think the arguments will end even when you have 12 in it. LOL. Maybe we need to do like basketball. 64 teams to start.

 

[multivita-man]

How about just 8? Then no one gets a bi. I don't like the top 4 teams get a bi with the 12 format.

You know what else I don't like? Michigan is 13 and 0. Georgia number 6 is 12-1. Because they played in their conference championship game. Michigan had to play Iowa for the Big 10 but Ohio State is 11-1? That means Ohio State got to play one less game. One less game to get beat up.

Numbers 9, 10, 11 and 12 played one fewer games. You must account for this. I say anyone who got in and had to play one more game gets a bi. OR, I don't understand why Ohio and Michigan don't play for the Big 10 championship. Iowa? Iowa finished 10 and 3. But even they played 13 games. Ohio State played only 12 and they get in?

So I don't think the arguments will end even when you have 12 in it. LOL. Maybe we need to do like basketball. 64 teams to start.

There will always be an argument about some team not getting into the playoffs. It happens now with the NCAA basketball tournament. The difference is that the team that gets left out in basketball doesn't usually have a statistically strong argument unless they're one of those small schools that maybe gets overlooked because they're small.

Mixed feelings on 8 vs 12 vs 16. I think a bye is okay. It rewards the top 4 teams, maybe punishes the 5-9 teams I guess, but at least they're in the tournament.

 

[sealybobo]

There will always be an argument about some team not getting into the playoffs. It happens now with the NCAA basketball tournament. The difference is that the team that gets left out in basketball doesn't usually have a statistically strong argument unless they're one of those small schools that maybe gets overlooked because they're small.

Mixed feelings on 8 vs 12 vs 16. I think a bye is okay. It rewards the top 4 teams, maybe punishes the 5-9 teams I guess, but at least they're in the tournament.

I really hope they take into consideration that some teams played 13 games and some only 12. Ohio State suddenly is healthy at the end of the year because they didn't get banged up in the Big 10 championship game. If Michigan one year finishes 11 and 2 and Ohio State 11 and 1, that one extra loss, probably in the Big 10 championship game, should not count against us when ranking us against Ohio State.

 

[AMart]

I think some years it'll work out well, and others not so much. Some years you'll have a program like UCF, Houston, or SMU get a number 12 spot and surprisingly make a game of it against a number 5 team. In other years, there might be some blowouts, but there have been blowouts in the top-4 format, too.

There's no way the Committee will get the top 12 teams perfect, but at least with 12 teams, they're sure to include all of the elite-performing, undefeated or 1-loss teams during the year. The debate will be about whether a 2- or perhaps even a 3-loss team deserves a shot at being a Cinderella, rather than which conference champion or 1-loss team gets screwed. I think 12 teams would work but I agree that there can be too many teams, so I hope it doesn't expand beyond that.

They may decide to eliminate bowl games and move them to week 0 as seasonal kick-off classics. If they do that, I could actually see the NCAA expanding the playoffs to 16 or even more teams as crazy as that sounds. It wouldn't be great for the sport but there would be more money in it.

Houston, UCF, and SMU (to the ACC) are now in P4 conferences. If they go 10-2 it's the same as FSU, Wisconsin, UCLA, Ole Miss, going to 10-2. They will be fighting for those positions from being ranked #8 through #12.

 

[Papageorgio]

So much for my picks, 0-2, glad I didn’t buy a lottery ticket.

 

[Papageorgio]

I really hope they take into consideration that some teams played 13 games and some only 12. Ohio State suddenly is healthy at the end of the year because they didn't get banged up in the Big 10 championship game. If Michigan one year finishes 11 and 2 and Ohio State 11 and 1, that one extra loss, probably in the Big 10 championship game, should not count against us when ranking us against Ohio State.

Every win and loss should count. It shows how strong or weak they are. FSU finished 13-0 and played Georgia and was blown out. Liberty 12-0 and Oregon blew them out. The conference championship games help us rank where the teams are compared with the other top team and with the new playoff system losing in a conference title game will carry less weight.

If this were next year, the 12 teams would have included Ohio St., Georgia and Oregon.

To me the biggest issue is players opting out of the games, that is pretty irritating to watch games where players opt out, no loyalty.