It is a crap shoot on which way it will go. But remember, Supreme Court decisions aren't just a specific ruling but based on a ruling which tends to make a lot of waves. For example a state tax on a federal bank set precedent that all federal laws override state laws. And that the Federal government has powers not listed in the Constitution.
Their decision of if Trump's national emergency is legal would be based on them determining a National Emergency can override Constitutional powers. (Ie power to give right of spending to Congress or right of guns to citizens)..
Respectfully, your analogy is conflating apples and oranges.
The Second Amendment is part of the Bill of Rights -- the express purpose of the Bill of Rights is to list the specific fundamental rights that the government cannot threaten or take away. History note: the addition of the Bill of Rights was necessary in order for the states to agree to ratify the Constitution, at the insistence of the Anti-Federalists (those who advocated power remaining with state and local governments, rather than central government) who refused to approve the original draft of the Constitution without it. Those rights cannot be impinged, modified or legislated away by the states or federal government.
The Appropriations Clause (Article 1, Section 9, Clause 7) does not delineate any individual "right" of the people like the Second Amendment does. It is an integral part of the Constitution's separation of powers, and delegates the ‘Power of the Purse’ to the legislative branch. However, it has been amended many times by Congress over the years through various legislation that has substantially weakened the restrictions of the Appropriations Clause, some of which is the basis for the emergency declaration currently at issue. To wit,
permanent (or "standing") appropriations, and
indefinite appropriations.
See
Principles of Federal Appropriations Law: Fourth Edition, Chapter 2, p13 (
https://www.gao.gov/assets/680/675709.pdf)
A permanent appropriation is one that, "once made, is always available for specified purposes and does not require repeated action by Congress to authorize its use."
Id. An indefinite appropriation is one that has no express limitation on the amount of money appropriated.
Id. Thus, "a 'permanent indefinite' appropriation is open ended as to both period of availability and amount."
Id. In other words, through these types of appropriations bills, Congress often issues "blank checks" for various purposes while retaining the authority to revoke the check through future budgetary legislation. The money Trump seeks to use to build the border wall is appropriated from the following:
- $1.4 billion from the currently approved budget
- $600 million from money seized from drug traffickers
- $2.5 billion from a defense department appropriations fund
- $3.5 billion appropriated from military construction projects
To that end, the Supreme Court has consistently and repeatedly refused to rule on cases involving separation of powers issues, including those brought by members of Congress challenging executive overreach via violation of the Appropriations Clause.
See Sanchez-Espinoza v Reagan, 248 U.S. App. D.C. 146, 210 (D.C. Cir. 1985) (challenging the Reagan administration's covert use of funds to support the Contras in Nicaragua, in direct violation of the Boland Amendment). In dismissing these cases, federal courts typically emphasize that the legislature has the means necessary to remedy their grievances, i.e., by passing another bill
. See Campbell v. Clinton, 203 F.3d 10 (D.C. Cir. 2000).
In sum, 1) these are two
very different issues, and 2) any lawsuit filed in federal court challenging Trump's use of funds on a "national emergency" is almost certain to be dismissed by the Supreme Court (and more likely long before it even gets there).