Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[The Rabbi]

How exactly? Serious question.

Every middle class union member and gov't employee will reap huge benefits and outsize pensions.

Of course if you're not a union member or gov't employee you'll take it in the shorts.

The private sector is full of nepotism and racism and misogynistic culture. Thats why the right loves the private sector.

You don't know jack-shit about the private sector. The closest you ever came to it was typing on the Apple computer your school let you use.

 

[Liability]

Polls Show Two Swing-State Dems Leading - Hotline On Call

Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe used the word "desperation" for the first time, since Willard won the first debate. I expect many of you to call him another Democratic Hack, but he is one of the more reasonable Republicans out there.






Quinnipiac is well known for its accuracy.

OKAY, YOU CAN BEGIN TELLING ME THIS POLL IS SKEWED NOW!

The polls you just cited are using 2008 voter turnout--with oversampling of democrats by 9 points. What they're stating is there are going to be 9 more democrats to every 1 republican that votes. And they're not including independents in these polls in which Romney is leading by 19 points.

What we're also starting to see is something we haven't seen in decades. In fact 1980--Reagan democrats who by 25% kicked Carter to the curb to vote for Reagan. These democrats did not show up in the polling data back in 1980. But they showed up on election night. Democrats are moving to the Romney column this year--we just don't know how many of them there are.

Election night is going to be reminiscent of Custer's Last Stand for Barack Obama.

We may see something similar to this. Carter v Reagan--1980

Polls don't sample based on prior election turnout! You cons that continue to peddle that lie are ******* idiots.

There is zero chance that this election is close to the 1980 election.

Deuce loves to spread his ignorance.

Pollsters may not deliberately choose to oversample Dims. But that doesn't mean that their efforts have not resulted in oversampling Dims.

This is not that difficult, really, except for hacks like Deuce who choose to remain ignorant or dishonest. For the sake purely of illustration, let's assume a given population IS presently approximately 33.33% GOP, 33.33% Dim and 33.34% Independent. And let's further assume that the Indy's essentially cancel each other out when they vote.

NOW let's assume that a pollster does a telephone survey of 600 random voters. They are not even going for "likely" voters. Just registered voters. And for whatever (set of) reason(s), the "sample" comes back as 300 Dims, 175 Republicans and 125 Indys.

If Dims, by and large tend to vote Dim and Republicans by and large tend to vote GOP (and the Indy's split) then the poll results will be SKEWED to the Dims.

On Election day, of course, the LIKELY voters are the ones probably going to come out in force. Registered voters less so. And Dims will not outnumber Republicans by a margin of close to 2 to 1. They will probably be closer to 1 to 1 and MAYBE (given Dim indifference to the flaccid record of the incumbent this year) the GOP will have slightly more voters coming to the polls than the Dims.

Given all of that, in that hypothetical example, it is probable that the GOP would win on Election Day in that State or locality. Such result would come as an absolute SHOCK to idiots like Deuce, of course.

And the reality is that the world is probably operating as a watered down version of the hypothetical. Dims ARE getting oversampled somewhat, which DOES skew the results. Sampling registered voters is also misleading in favor of the Dims. And Dims are NOT likely to find it all that urgent to get the Obamessiah BACK into Office where he has fucked almost everything up. The GOP is the Party feeling an urgent natural (not artificial) need to get out the vote.

The incumbent is a clusterfuck of fail. He is going to lose.

And I do hope Deuce feels it.

 

[insein]

The Obama victory will be great for the middle class. Bad for the hate mongers in the tea party

How exactly? Serious question.

Plutocracy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Romney is a plutocrat. Get it

So it will be "great" for the middle class because Romney is bad. I think your logic needs some work.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

It is unthinkable that Mitt could win.

Unthinkable.

I'm terribly happy for wealth of the rw's who post here but I live on my investments and Social Security. I cannot afford what will happen to my investments under a GObP fascist plutocracy. I like paying less for prescriptions and the other breaks under ObamaCare. None of us can afford for the economy to stop growing and the end of new jobs as we would see under the r. And we sure as hell can't afford a bigger military and more wars.

 

[Dr.House]

Nate Silver...

The liberal's security blanket....

TFF

 

[Dr.House]

If Nate is wrong next Tuesday, do you libs throw him under the bus or start claiming Romney cheated and stole the election?

Just curious...

 

[mamooth]

I'm curious. Given that all the poll aggregators say the same thing as Nate Silver, what's the reason for your deranged NateHate? Why single him out for your bizarre obsession, given he's just one of many saying the same thing?

You don't see liberals obsessing over Nate Silver like the conservatives do. Conservatives seem to have a deep-seated emotional need to have some scapegoats to demonize.

 

[MarcATL]

What I don't get is if it is the "independents" who decide elections, especially in swing states, and Romney is up 6 in OH with independents, how is he losing overall....

Independents and weak (‘Reagan&#8217 democrats win elections; Romney simply won’t get enough democrats to win in Ohio and most of the other BG states.

I'm surprised so many people are STILL buying into the myth that the Republicans have created of Reagan. He was no good. I guess that attests to the power of emotion, Republicans just LOVE "feel good" stuff.

 

[AceRothstein]

The polls you just cited are using 2008 voter turnout--with oversampling of democrats by 9 points. What they're stating is there are going to be 9 more democrats to every 1 republican that votes. And they're not including independents in these polls in which Romney is leading by 19 points.

What we're also starting to see is something we haven't seen in decades. In fact 1980--Reagan democrats who by 25% kicked Carter to the curb to vote for Reagan. These democrats did not show up in the polling data back in 1980. But they showed up on election night. Democrats are moving to the Romney column this year--we just don't know how many of them there are.

Election night is going to be reminiscent of Custer's Last Stand for Barack Obama.

We may see something similar to this. Carter v Reagan--1980

Polls don't sample based on prior election turnout! You cons that continue to peddle that lie are ******* idiots.

There is zero chance that this election is close to the 1980 election.

Deuce loves to spread his ignorance.

Pollsters may not deliberately choose to oversample Dims. But that doesn't mean that their efforts have not resulted in oversampling Dims.

This is not that difficult, really, except for hacks like Deuce who choose to remain ignorant or dishonest. For the sake purely of illustration, let's assume a given population IS presently approximately 33.33% GOP, 33.33% Dim and 33.34% Independent. And let's further assume that the Indy's essentially cancel each other out when they vote.

NOW let's assume that a pollster does a telephone survey of 600 random voters. They are not even going for "likely" voters. Just registered voters. And for whatever (set of) reason(s), the "sample" comes back as 300 Dims, 175 Republicans and 125 Indys.

If Dims, by and large tend to vote Dim and Republicans by and large tend to vote GOP (and the Indy's split) then the poll results will be SKEWED to the Dims.

On Election day, of course, the LIKELY voters are the ones probably going to come out in force. Registered voters less so. And Dims will not outnumber Republicans by a margin of close to 2 to 1. They will probably be closer to 1 to 1 and MAYBE (given Dim indifference to the flaccid record of the incumbent this year) the GOP will have slightly more voters coming to the polls than the Dims.

Given all of that, in that hypothetical example, it is probable that the GOP would win on Election Day in that State or locality. Such result would come as an absolute SHOCK to idiots like Deuce, of course.

And the reality is that the world is probably operating as a watered down version of the hypothetical. Dims ARE getting oversampled somewhat, which DOES skew the results. Sampling registered voters is also misleading in favor of the Dims. And Dims are NOT likely to find it all that urgent to get the Obamessiah BACK into Office where he has fucked almost everything up. The GOP is the Party feeling an urgent natural (not artificial) need to get out the vote.

The incumbent is a clusterfuck of fail. He is going to lose.

And I do hope Deuce feels it.

You dunce, you are proving my point for me. That point is that pollsters DO NOT SAMPLE BASED ON PREVIOUS ELECTIONS. Thanks!

There is one thing we disagree on and that is you believing that EVERY pollster, besides Rasmussen, is going to be wrong with their results.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

If Nate is wrong next Tuesday, do you libs throw him under the bus or start claiming Romney cheated and stole the election?

Just curious...

Its true that the R is trying their best to steal and/or buy the election. And, they may succeed.

Have any of you rw's seen the incredible amounts that Kochs, Adelson, Bush's Brain are spending in this last week?

Why are rw's against having an honest election?

 

[Katzndogz]

Has FEMA done anything on the East Coast? How valuable has FEMA been?

So far, the electricity is still out, but technicians have been arriving from all over the country to help restore the power. FEMA didn't do that.

Samaritan's Purse, a charity of volunteer workers are helping individual people dig out their homes. No FEMA involvement.

Churches and charities have been distributing supplies directly to those in need. Again, no FEMA.

The Red Cross is helping people relocate out of shelters into other housing. No FEMA.

No doubt the TIDE company has their trucks of washers and dryers on the scene so people could do laundry. Without FEMA.

FEMA is a governmental agency whose sole purpose is to stand around saying "We're from FEMA".

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Has FEMA done anything on the East Coast? How valuable has FEMA been?

So far, the electricity is still out, but technicians have been arriving from all over the country to help restore the power. FEMA didn't do that.

Samaritan's Purse, a charity of volunteer workers are helping individual people dig out their homes. No FEMA involvement.

Churches and charities have been distributing supplies directly to those in need. Again, no FEMA.

The Red Cross is helping people relocate out of shelters into other housing. No FEMA.

No doubt the TIDE company has their trucks of washers and dryers on the scene so people could do laundry. Without FEMA.

FEMA is a governmental agency whose sole purpose is to stand around saying "We're from FEMA".

Gawd but you really are stooopid.

Have you been watching or reading the news?

No, not fuxdredgelushbo.

Real news.

Try the internet.

Or, stay stoooid.

 

[Zander]

This is the person that leftist/communist/socialist/green/progressive/democrats are all counting on....

forget the past 4 yrs, forget Obama's record, forget the 2010 midterm thrashing, forget the "tea party, forget reality!! Just for "forward" and OBEY!! Yes folks, this man-child has called the election for Obama ....it's over, Nate Silver said so!

 

[mamooth]

This is the person that leftist/communist/socialist/green/progressive/democrats are all counting on....

Yup, Nate Silver looks like a geek. Why is that supposed to call his statistical algorithm into question?

Oh, post your photo now, so we can judge the quality of your posts. Along with the documentation that proves it's you.

 

[Liability]

* * * *

You dunce, you are proving my point for me. That point is that pollsters DO NOT SAMPLE BASED ON PREVIOUS ELECTIONS. Thanks!

I never said they did you ******* moron. Although, some of them probably do. But that's not important, you ******* imbecile.

There is one thing we disagree on and that is you believing that EVERY pollster, besides Rasmussen, is going to be wrong with their results.

I didn't say that either. Your fail is complete. You idiot.

 

[Dr.House]

If Nate is wrong next Tuesday, do you libs throw him under the bus or start claiming Romney cheated and stole the election?

Just curious...

Its true that the R is trying their best to steal and/or buy the election. And, they may succeed.

Have any of you rw's seen the incredible amounts that Kochs, Adelson, Bush's Brain are spending in this last week?

Why are rw's against having an honest election?

What is dishonest about the election? I mean other than the obvious 0bama lies...

So you're in the "Nate was right and Romney stoled our precious" camp?

 

[Zander]

This is the person that leftist/communist/socialist/green/progressive/democrats are all counting on....

Yup, Nate Silver looks like a geek. Why is that supposed to call his statistical algorithm into question?

Oh, post your photo now, so we can judge the quality of your posts. Along with the documentation that proves it's you.

I have all kinds of very impressive mathematical stuff at my very own poll aggregation site: Five-30-Ate.com You can trust me too, I correctly predicted that Obama would win in 2008. I also predicted that Jerry Brown, the governor of California, would roll out a tax increase proposal. I'm THAT good. really.

Here is a photo of ...

me crossing my toes. I have my fingers crossed too.....

 

[Dante]

* * * *

You dunce, you are proving my point for me. That point is that pollsters DO NOT SAMPLE BASED ON PREVIOUS ELECTIONS. Thanks!

I never said they did you ******* moron. Although, some of them probably do. But that's not important, you ******* imbecile.

There is one thing we disagree on and that is you believing that EVERY pollster, besides Rasmussen, is going to be wrong with their results.

I didn't say that either. Your fail is complete. You idiot.

Your constant hysterical shouting and cursing is not convincing people you actually have anything of any substance to say.

 

[Conservative]

If Nate is wrong next Tuesday, do you libs throw him under the bus or start claiming Romney cheated and stole the election?

Just curious...

Its true that the R is trying their best to steal and/or buy the election. And, they may succeed.

Have any of you rw's seen the incredible amounts that Kochs, Adelson, Bush's Brain are spending in this last week?

Why are rw's against having an honest election?

Spending money in order to support your desired candidate is dishonest? Only for Republicans though, right?

Dumb ass.

 

[Zarius]

Every middle class union member and gov't employee will reap huge benefits and outsize pensions.

Of course if you're not a union member or gov't employee you'll take it in the shorts.

The private sector is full of nepotism and racism and misogynistic culture. Thats why the right loves the private sector.

You don't know jack-shit about the private sector. The closest you ever came to it was typing on the Apple computer your school let you use.

This is the dumbest post I have ever read and that is saying something. Do tell why you posted this garbage?