Nate Silver: Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win

[Fueri]

Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Fivethirtyeight uses more advanced statistical models than simple polls, which is why I prefer them to RCP (Real Questionable Practices, according to 538) or just straight polls.

They are telling people today to hold their water on this Clinton 'rebound'

I agree with others that this race is tight. Clinton leads, yes, but one state moves against her and she loses and the trend is against her, at least for the time being.

Debates loom huge right now....


From the article:

.
"Yes, Clinton has gotten some good polls. A new Monmouth University survey showing her ahead by 9 percentage points in New Hampshire is a strong result. A SurveyMonkey poll finding her leading Trump by 5 points nationally is good. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll putting her up 6 points among likely voters will also warm the hearts of Clinton fans.

But the trend lines are more mixed. Here are the polls released over the past three days and finished within the last week compared to the most recent poll in the same contest from the same pollster.1

....(table not c/p'd)....


In only three of the 16 polls has the race shifted in Clinton’s direction. It’s moved toward Trump in 10. Indeed, the average poll has moved 2.8 percentage points toward Trump."

9 points up with 45 days to go or so…even better for the future President Clinton.

Wow, great cherry-pick!

Also from the article, which I didn't post, but I should have known better than to think people would actually bother to read it before embarking on their partisan spin expeditions:

"Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House are still near an all-time low in the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, although they’re up a smidge from earlier in the week."

The funny part of this is that you have no idea what she/he meant.

No the funny part is that your partisanship has apparently rendered you clinically blind.

The title of the article is fairly clear as to the point of the article.

 

[candycorn]

So HRC’s campaign is in trouble because she is running ads about how Donald “likes soldiers who were not captured”…

And Trump’s is in good shape because it’s depending on a hacker wanted by the authorities for date rape to release a supposed authentic e-mail.

Got it.

Admit it, Candy...the Clinton's have never been supporters of the military...yet she's now contending that she'd somehow be a better Commander in Chief because Trump likes soldiers who were not captured? She disliked the military so much that she didn't want them to wear uniforms when the visited the White House!

As for Assange? He's slime. The e-mails that he has access to however reveal the REAL Hillary Clinton and that's bad news for Hillary because the REAL Hillary Clinton is corrupt as the day is long!

She’s contending she’d be a better commander in chief because she has experience on the world stage, doesn’t think she knows more than the generals do, and has the proper contemplative temperament. Trump has said we are going to “take the oil” from ISIS. That means boots on the ground for the 3rd time in 25 years in the middle east. No thanks.

If you believe the man is slime…i’m curious how do you know what he is revealing is truthful? Oh yeah, I forgot; content=credibility in the world of Conservatives.

Oh, she has "experience" on the world stage all right, Candy! The only problem is that it isn’t positive experience.

Your opinion is noted.

"Contemplative temperament"? Oh you mean she thinks about acting yet seldom does?

She thought about running in 2016. Has done it. And is winning. And will win. Executing a strategy takes time. All trump and his enablers seem to admire is acting before a strategy is even discussed.

I hate to break this to you Candy but we HAVE boots on the ground in the Middle East! Barry had to send troops back in to try and salvage the mess that he made by pulling them out prematurely.

This is true. But rare is the case where they are doing the heavy lifting in combat situations. “Taking the oil” is not only illegal, it’s going to cost a large number of casualties. Again….you don’t make statements like that unless you want to impress the mindless hordes….like you.

As for the truthfulness of Assange? Show me something he's released that you don't find credible...

Well, that’s just it with criminals. Who knows what is truthful…what is false…what wasn’t released because it may have pertained to him or his allies??? When you live outside the law you no longer benefit from lady justice wearing her blindfold.

It was a simple question, Candy...show me something that Assange has released that you don't find credible!

I have trouble trusting anything released from someone who practices espionage. He could “release” something tomorrow that was totally pulled out of thin air just as easily as something that once belonged to someone else.

As for why you trust a common their, charlatan, and someone wanted for sexual assault…I guess your choice of heroes is your business. Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

As for the credibility of a thief; Trump has said that he is going to “take their oil”…which means war and boots on the ground that will spawn terrorism as has been proven over the last quarter century. Assange, ironically accuses Ms. Clinton of having the same policy….obviously she does not.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

The irony of this statement is beyond pale.

 

[candycorn]

Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

The irony of this statement is beyond pale.

So is your messiah….I’ve bought futures in the spray tanning industry.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

The irony of this statement is beyond pale.

So is your messiah….I’ve bought futures in the spray tanning industry.

It's unfortunate that you keep lying.

I've told you before that he is not my messiah. I don't like the guy.

I don't like Hillary either.

I've been quite clear on that.

But the truth is that Hillary's choice of "bedfellows" has been gaining her grief for decades.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

RealClear this moring shows HIllary up by 3.0.

Favorability ratings are up by 9 points.

But the electoral college holds.

They show HIllary up by 2.5 points in CO. This is starting to look like the state that could swing things.

I hope they are ready for a whole lot of crappy commercials.

 

[candycorn]

Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

The irony of this statement is beyond pale.

So is your messiah….I’ve bought futures in the spray tanning industry.

It's unfortunate that you keep lying.

I've told you before that he is not my messiah. I don't like the guy.

I don't like Hillary either.

I've been quite clear on that.

But the truth is that Hillary's choice of "bedfellows" has been gaining her grief for decades.

Yeah, you keep saying that….your posts seem to say otherwise. Are you sure you’re not Foxy’s sock?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

The irony of this statement is beyond pale.

So is your messiah….I’ve bought futures in the spray tanning industry.

It's unfortunate that you keep lying.

I've told you before that he is not my messiah. I don't like the guy.

I don't like Hillary either.

I've been quite clear on that.

But the truth is that Hillary's choice of "bedfellows" has been gaining her grief for decades.

Yeah, you keep saying that….your posts seem to say otherwise. Are you sure you’re not Foxy’s sock?

Yes, my posts say I don't like Trump...it's all over them.

That I don't like Clinton is what seems to bother you.

You seem to actually like her.

Something I find amazing.

That I am fascinated by this election does not condemn me to being a Trump person.

She has lost a lot of her lead and her campaign is not really matching Trump's very well.

It isn't a matter of being true (that went out the window with both of them a long long time ago).

What works is what is interesting to me.

I can't tell if Trump's campaign is getting smarter or if Hillary's is just lazy and unaware.

 

[candycorn]

Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

The irony of this statement is beyond pale.

So is your messiah….I’ve bought futures in the spray tanning industry.

It's unfortunate that you keep lying.

I've told you before that he is not my messiah. I don't like the guy.

I don't like Hillary either.

I've been quite clear on that.

But the truth is that Hillary's choice of "bedfellows" has been gaining her grief for decades.

Yeah, you keep saying that….your posts seem to say otherwise. Are you sure you’re not Foxy’s sock?

Yes, my posts say I don't like Trump...it's all over them.

That I don't like Clinton is what seems to bother you.

You seem to actually like her.

Something I find amazing.

That I am fascinated by this election does not condemn me to being a Trump person.

She has lost a lot of her lead and her campaign is not really matching Trump's very well.

It isn't a matter of being true (that went out the window with both of them a long long time ago).

What works is what is interesting to me.

I can't tell if Trump's campaign is getting smarter or if Hillary's is just lazy and unaware.

So, when she does win, I will be looking forward to your dissection of Trump’s mean spirited campaign, his crazy ideas, his amateurish ground game, and what propelled Ms. Clinton over the top. You being 100% impartial and all.

Right?

I’m guessing you’ll disappear like a bad rash. Basically there is no difference between you and it.

 

[Oldstyle]

Admit it, Candy...the Clinton's have never been supporters of the military...yet she's now contending that she'd somehow be a better Commander in Chief because Trump likes soldiers who were not captured? She disliked the military so much that she didn't want them to wear uniforms when the visited the White House!

As for Assange? He's slime. The e-mails that he has access to however reveal the REAL Hillary Clinton and that's bad news for Hillary because the REAL Hillary Clinton is corrupt as the day is long!

She’s contending she’d be a better commander in chief because she has experience on the world stage, doesn’t think she knows more than the generals do, and has the proper contemplative temperament. Trump has said we are going to “take the oil” from ISIS. That means boots on the ground for the 3rd time in 25 years in the middle east. No thanks.

If you believe the man is slime…i’m curious how do you know what he is revealing is truthful? Oh yeah, I forgot; content=credibility in the world of Conservatives.

Oh, she has "experience" on the world stage all right, Candy! The only problem is that it isn’t positive experience.

Your opinion is noted.

"Contemplative temperament"? Oh you mean she thinks about acting yet seldom does?

She thought about running in 2016. Has done it. And is winning. And will win. Executing a strategy takes time. All trump and his enablers seem to admire is acting before a strategy is even discussed.

I hate to break this to you Candy but we HAVE boots on the ground in the Middle East! Barry had to send troops back in to try and salvage the mess that he made by pulling them out prematurely.

This is true. But rare is the case where they are doing the heavy lifting in combat situations. “Taking the oil” is not only illegal, it’s going to cost a large number of casualties. Again….you don’t make statements like that unless you want to impress the mindless hordes….like you.

As for the truthfulness of Assange? Show me something he's released that you don't find credible...

Well, that’s just it with criminals. Who knows what is truthful…what is false…what wasn’t released because it may have pertained to him or his allies??? When you live outside the law you no longer benefit from lady justice wearing her blindfold.

It was a simple question, Candy...show me something that Assange has released that you don't find credible!

I have trouble trusting anything released from someone who practices espionage. He could “release” something tomorrow that was totally pulled out of thin air just as easily as something that once belonged to someone else.

As for why you trust a common their, charlatan, and someone wanted for sexual assault…I guess your choice of heroes is your business. Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

As for the credibility of a thief; Trump has said that he is going to “take their oil”…which means war and boots on the ground that will spawn terrorism as has been proven over the last quarter century. Assange, ironically accuses Ms. Clinton of having the same policy….obviously she does not.

Once again, Candy...simple question...what has Assange released that you don't find credible?

The truth is...you can't think of anything...can you? Julian Assange might be the biggest scum bag on the planet but that doesn't change the fact that he has access to e-mails that reveal the real way that Hillary Clinton operates and those emails paint an ugly picture.

 

[candycorn]

She’s contending she’d be a better commander in chief because she has experience on the world stage, doesn’t think she knows more than the generals do, and has the proper contemplative temperament. Trump has said we are going to “take the oil” from ISIS. That means boots on the ground for the 3rd time in 25 years in the middle east. No thanks.

If you believe the man is slime…i’m curious how do you know what he is revealing is truthful? Oh yeah, I forgot; content=credibility in the world of Conservatives.

Oh, she has "experience" on the world stage all right, Candy! The only problem is that it isn’t positive experience.

Your opinion is noted.

"Contemplative temperament"? Oh you mean she thinks about acting yet seldom does?

She thought about running in 2016. Has done it. And is winning. And will win. Executing a strategy takes time. All trump and his enablers seem to admire is acting before a strategy is even discussed.

I hate to break this to you Candy but we HAVE boots on the ground in the Middle East! Barry had to send troops back in to try and salvage the mess that he made by pulling them out prematurely.

This is true. But rare is the case where they are doing the heavy lifting in combat situations. “Taking the oil” is not only illegal, it’s going to cost a large number of casualties. Again….you don’t make statements like that unless you want to impress the mindless hordes….like you.

As for the truthfulness of Assange? Show me something he's released that you don't find credible...

Well, that’s just it with criminals. Who knows what is truthful…what is false…what wasn’t released because it may have pertained to him or his allies??? When you live outside the law you no longer benefit from lady justice wearing her blindfold.

It was a simple question, Candy...show me something that Assange has released that you don't find credible!

I have trouble trusting anything released from someone who practices espionage. He could “release” something tomorrow that was totally pulled out of thin air just as easily as something that once belonged to someone else.

As for why you trust a common their, charlatan, and someone wanted for sexual assault…I guess your choice of heroes is your business. Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

As for the credibility of a thief; Trump has said that he is going to “take their oil”…which means war and boots on the ground that will spawn terrorism as has been proven over the last quarter century. Assange, ironically accuses Ms. Clinton of having the same policy….obviously she does not.

Once again, Candy...simple question...what has Assange released that you don't find credible?

The truth is...you can't think of anything...can you? Julian Assange might be the biggest scum bag on the planet but that doesn't change the fact that he has access to e-mails that reveal the real way that Hillary Clinton operates and those emails paint an ugly picture.

Just listed it… Can you not read?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

The irony of this statement is beyond pale.

So is your messiah….I’ve bought futures in the spray tanning industry.

It's unfortunate that you keep lying.

I've told you before that he is not my messiah. I don't like the guy.

I don't like Hillary either.

I've been quite clear on that.

But the truth is that Hillary's choice of "bedfellows" has been gaining her grief for decades.

Yeah, you keep saying that….your posts seem to say otherwise. Are you sure you’re not Foxy’s sock?

Yes, my posts say I don't like Trump...it's all over them.

That I don't like Clinton is what seems to bother you.

You seem to actually like her.

Something I find amazing.

That I am fascinated by this election does not condemn me to being a Trump person.

She has lost a lot of her lead and her campaign is not really matching Trump's very well.

It isn't a matter of being true (that went out the window with both of them a long long time ago).

What works is what is interesting to me.

I can't tell if Trump's campaign is getting smarter or if Hillary's is just lazy and unaware.

So, when she does win, I will be looking forward to your dissection of Trump’s mean spirited campaign, his crazy ideas, his amateurish ground game, and what propelled Ms. Clinton over the top. You being 100% impartial and all.

Right?

I’m guessing you’ll disappear like a bad rash. Basically there is no difference between you and it.

You seem to like to guess a great deal and then treat it like it was fact.

I can't help that you've become a slave to some fairy tale.

But you keep believing.

I am not 100% impartial, as you once again make stuff up to argue against.

I detest both candidates. If they both got lost in the arctic, I'd be the happiest guy on earth....especially if they took a few people with them (like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Lawrence O'donnell, Ed Shultz and so on).

I'll be less interested in what they do as presidents, than I will be in watching the rest of this election unfold.

If she doesn't win, what do you do (I am sure you've thought about it since any rational person understands there is that possibility....well, maybe you are not that rational...I guess we'll see).

I suspect, you'll just keep guessing wrong and dropping your worthless turds (why change ?).

And keep lying like you've done already.

This thread is about how she is positioned. I am not championing it....it fascinates me.

A month ago, I figured this was over and it would be time to get ready for the next clown show.

Mrs. Clinton would assume the position in front of the republican house and we'll have four more years of dead stand still government (the kind I like).

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Hillary Clinton is boring.

It's unfortunate that people think they should be stroked into voting for anyone.

 

[Zander]

hiLIARy peaked right after the convention. It's been all down hill ever since. I like the trend!

 

[candycorn]

So is your messiah….I’ve bought futures in the spray tanning industry.

It's unfortunate that you keep lying.

I've told you before that he is not my messiah. I don't like the guy.

I don't like Hillary either.

I've been quite clear on that.

But the truth is that Hillary's choice of "bedfellows" has been gaining her grief for decades.

Yeah, you keep saying that….your posts seem to say otherwise. Are you sure you’re not Foxy’s sock?

Yes, my posts say I don't like Trump...it's all over them.

That I don't like Clinton is what seems to bother you.

You seem to actually like her.

Something I find amazing.

That I am fascinated by this election does not condemn me to being a Trump person.

She has lost a lot of her lead and her campaign is not really matching Trump's very well.

It isn't a matter of being true (that went out the window with both of them a long long time ago).

What works is what is interesting to me.

I can't tell if Trump's campaign is getting smarter or if Hillary's is just lazy and unaware.

So, when she does win, I will be looking forward to your dissection of Trump’s mean spirited campaign, his crazy ideas, his amateurish ground game, and what propelled Ms. Clinton over the top. You being 100% impartial and all.

Right?

I’m guessing you’ll disappear like a bad rash. Basically there is no difference between you and it.

You seem to like to guess a great deal and then treat it like it was fact.

Make predictions based on traditional data and polling with a proven track-record.

I can't help that you've become a slave to some fairy tale.

What fairy tale would that be? That you'll ever answer a question directly? Yeah...that is a fairy tale.

I am not 100% impartial, as you once again make stuff up to argue against.

You don't say. Really?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

I am not 100% impartial, as you once again make stuff up to argue against.

You don't say. Really?

Actually, I did say it.

You are a liar.

Your love interest is sucking fumes right now.

I just finished an article that says he's doing better among latinos that Romney did four years ago....especially in CO.

She better keep that state on a short leash. If it turns, she is likely screwed.

Then we'll all be screwed.

Then we can Thank Debbie Wasserass Shultz for screwing Bernie out of a fair shake.

 

[candycorn]

I am not 100% impartial, as you once again make stuff up to argue against.

You don't say. Really?

Actually, I did say it.

You are a liar.

Your love interest is sucking fumes right now.

I just finished an article that says he's doing better among latinos that Romney did four years ago....especially in CO.

She better keep that state on a short leash. If it turns, she is likely screwed.

Then we'll all be screwed.

Then we can Thank Debbie Wasserass Shultz for screwing Bernie out of a fair shake.

It was scarcasm...christ you're an idiot. CO belongs to Ms. Clinton. As does CA, NY, NJ, CT, PA, WA, WI, VA etc...... To quote (partially) a famos Republican candidate for governor in Texas a few years back..."just lay back and enjoy it."

 

[Sun Devil 92]

I am not 100% impartial, as you once again make stuff up to argue against.

You don't say. Really?

Actually, I did say it.

You are a liar.

Your love interest is sucking fumes right now.

I just finished an article that says he's doing better among latinos that Romney did four years ago....especially in CO.

She better keep that state on a short leash. If it turns, she is likely screwed.

Then we'll all be screwed.

Then we can Thank Debbie Wasserass Shultz for screwing Bernie out of a fair shake.

It was scarcasm...christ you're an idiot. CO belongs to Ms. Clinton. As does CA, NY, NJ, CT, PA, WA, WI, VA etc...... To quote (partially) a famos Republican candidate for governor in Texas a few years back..."just lay back and enjoy it."

Whatsamatter Candy....drinking too much ?

CO does not belong to your love-interest.

Just like my home state does not necessarily belong to Trumpet.

 

[Oldstyle]

Oh, she has "experience" on the world stage all right, Candy! The only problem is that it isn’t positive experience.

Your opinion is noted.

"Contemplative temperament"? Oh you mean she thinks about acting yet seldom does?

She thought about running in 2016. Has done it. And is winning. And will win. Executing a strategy takes time. All trump and his enablers seem to admire is acting before a strategy is even discussed.

I hate to break this to you Candy but we HAVE boots on the ground in the Middle East! Barry had to send troops back in to try and salvage the mess that he made by pulling them out prematurely.

This is true. But rare is the case where they are doing the heavy lifting in combat situations. “Taking the oil” is not only illegal, it’s going to cost a large number of casualties. Again….you don’t make statements like that unless you want to impress the mindless hordes….like you.

As for the truthfulness of Assange? Show me something he's released that you don't find credible...

Well, that’s just it with criminals. Who knows what is truthful…what is false…what wasn’t released because it may have pertained to him or his allies??? When you live outside the law you no longer benefit from lady justice wearing her blindfold.

It was a simple question, Candy...show me something that Assange has released that you don't find credible!

I have trouble trusting anything released from someone who practices espionage. He could “release” something tomorrow that was totally pulled out of thin air just as easily as something that once belonged to someone else.

As for why you trust a common their, charlatan, and someone wanted for sexual assault…I guess your choice of heroes is your business. Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.

As for the credibility of a thief; Trump has said that he is going to “take their oil”…which means war and boots on the ground that will spawn terrorism as has been proven over the last quarter century. Assange, ironically accuses Ms. Clinton of having the same policy….obviously she does not.

Once again, Candy...simple question...what has Assange released that you don't find credible?

The truth is...you can't think of anything...can you? Julian Assange might be the biggest scum bag on the planet but that doesn't change the fact that he has access to e-mails that reveal the real way that Hillary Clinton operates and those emails paint an ugly picture.

Just listed it… Can you not read?

You listed something that Assange has released that you don't find credible? Where? In a different string?

 

[Oldstyle]

I am not 100% impartial, as you once again make stuff up to argue against.

You don't say. Really?

Actually, I did say it.

You are a liar.

Your love interest is sucking fumes right now.

I just finished an article that says he's doing better among latinos that Romney did four years ago....especially in CO.

She better keep that state on a short leash. If it turns, she is likely screwed.

Then we'll all be screwed.

Then we can Thank Debbie Wasserass Shultz for screwing Bernie out of a fair shake.

It was scarcasm...christ you're an idiot. CO belongs to Ms. Clinton. As does CA, NY, NJ, CT, PA, WA, WI, VA etc...... To quote (partially) a famos Republican candidate for governor in Texas a few years back..."just lay back and enjoy it."

Thinking things "belonged" to her is what got Hillary in trouble with Barack Obama back in 2008. By the time her political machine figured out that they didn't OWN anything Barry was accepting the nomination and she was home sulking!