Nate Silver: Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win

[Sun Devil 92]

Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win

Right now, Clinton is over the line by exactly one state. As of this writing, that state — what we also call the tipping-point state — is New Hampshire. But a group of states are closely lumped together, and Pennsylvania, Colorado and Wisconsin have all taken their turn as the tipping-point state in recent weeks.

But that exactitude is a big assumption, especially given that we still have 47 days — and three debates — to go until the election. Even if it were Election Day, in fact, it would be unrealistic to expect such high precision. State polling averages have been pretty good for the past few presidential elections, but “pretty good” still provides for plenty of times when they miss by 2 to 4 percentage points. If one of those misses is in Trump’s favor in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire or Colorado, especially if the race shifts a bit further to Trump overall, then Clinton will go from being in a pretty good Electoral College position to having a total mess on her hands.

**************************

This has been fun so far.

To bad we actually have to elect one of these clowns.

 

[Mac1958]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I agree.

And I really do think that people can swing on this one a lot easier.

There are a lot of people fed up with these two and the whole thing.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Great....off in the wilderness.

 

[Mac1958]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I agree.

And I really do think that people can swing on this one a lot easier.

There are a lot of people fed up with these two and the whole thing.

Yeah, great point.

I do think there's possibility of a nihilist vote for Trump: "Aw, fuck it, let's see what happens".

What a terrible choice.
.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I agree.

And I really do think that people can swing on this one a lot easier.

There are a lot of people fed up with these two and the whole thing.

Yeah, great point.

I do think there's possibility of a nihilist vote for Trump: "Aw, fuck it, let's see what happens".

What a terrible choice.
.

What have you got to lose ?

Oh brother.........................

 

[Mac1958]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I agree.

And I really do think that people can swing on this one a lot easier.

There are a lot of people fed up with these two and the whole thing.

Yeah, great point.

I do think there's possibility of a nihilist vote for Trump: "Aw, fuck it, let's see what happens".

What a terrible choice.
.

What have you got to lose ?

Oh brother.........................

The one phrase that makes me the most nervous is "well, it can't get any worse!"

Yeah. It can. It really can.
.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I agree.

And I really do think that people can swing on this one a lot easier.

There are a lot of people fed up with these two and the whole thing.

Yeah, great point.

I do think there's possibility of a nihilist vote for Trump: "Aw, fuck it, let's see what happens".

What a terrible choice.
.

What have you got to lose ?

Oh brother.........................

The one phrase that makes me the most nervous is "well, it can't get any worse!"

Yeah. It can. It really can.
.

I think that happens either way.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Hillary is decaying before your very eyes...good grief wake up

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Hillary is decaying before your very eyes...good grief wake up

What do you mean ?

Physically ?

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Hillary is decaying before your very eyes...good grief wake up

What do you mean ?

Physically ?

Yeah...her morals died decades ago....that and she has never accomplished a damn thing. But hey she has a vag and the (D)....right?

 

[martybegan]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I'm still amazed it is even this close.

The thing is Trump is cleaning up his campaign, and Hillary is plodding along with the same stuff she started out with.

The wild card to me is this racial stuff going on now, I'm not sure if its going to make blacks come out for hillary, make them shift to Trump due to dems being in control of the localities, or make them wait out this election in disgust.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Hillary is decaying before your very eyes...good grief wake up

What do you mean ?

Physically ?

Yeah...her morals died decades ago....that and she has never accomplished a damn thing. But hey she has a vag and the (D)....right?

You are correct.

She's accomplished a great deal.

I can't think of anyone who has been so disliked for so long and stayed around.

Some see her as a savior.

I see her as a disaster.

The problem is the alternative.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I'm still amazed it is even this close.

The thing is Trump is cleaning up his campaign, and Hillary is plodding along with the same stuff she started out with.

The wild card to me is this racial stuff going on now, I'm not sure if its going to make blacks come out for hillary, make them shift to Trump due to dems being in control of the localities, or make them wait out this election in disgust.

Real Clear has her back up to a 3 point lead.

She was at 0.9 at one point.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Hillary is decaying before your very eyes...good grief wake up

What do you mean ?

Physically ?

Yeah...her morals died decades ago....that and she has never accomplished a damn thing. But hey she has a vag and the (D)....right?

You are correct.

She's accomplished a great deal.

I can't think of anyone who has been so disliked for so long and stayed around.

Some see her as a savior.

I see her as a disaster.

The problem is the alternative.

She'll be dead in less than four years.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I'm still amazed it is even this close.

The thing is Trump is cleaning up his campaign, and Hillary is plodding along with the same stuff she started out with.

The wild card to me is this racial stuff going on now, I'm not sure if its going to make blacks come out for hillary, make them shift to Trump due to dems being in control of the localities, or make them wait out this election in disgust.

Real Clear has her back up to a 3 point lead.

She was at 0.9 at one point.

RealClear is moving polls in and out of their averages...you can't depend on the average because it's not an average of the same polls each week

 

[Iceweasel]

That recent video of her asking why she shouldn't be 50 points ahead was creepy. That's her real personality. She can't hide it forever.

That said I am sick of hearing about Nate Silver, as if he was a demigod viewing us from Mt. Olympus.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I'm still amazed it is even this close.

The thing is Trump is cleaning up his campaign, and Hillary is plodding along with the same stuff she started out with.

The wild card to me is this racial stuff going on now, I'm not sure if its going to make blacks come out for hillary, make them shift to Trump due to dems being in control of the localities, or make them wait out this election in disgust.

Real Clear has her back up to a 3 point lead.

She was at 0.9 at one point.

RealClear is moving polls in and out of their averages...you can't depend on the average because it's not an average of the same polls each week

Agreed.

And that swing simply reflects the variability in polls.

The trends certainly don't favor HIllary.

 

[martybegan]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I'm still amazed it is even this close.

The thing is Trump is cleaning up his campaign, and Hillary is plodding along with the same stuff she started out with.

The wild card to me is this racial stuff going on now, I'm not sure if its going to make blacks come out for hillary, make them shift to Trump due to dems being in control of the localities, or make them wait out this election in disgust.

Real Clear has her back up to a 3 point lead.

She was at 0.9 at one point.

Still to early, and too close to make any predictions yet. I have a feeling Trump is keeping his powder dry for October.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I'm still amazed it is even this close.

The thing is Trump is cleaning up his campaign, and Hillary is plodding along with the same stuff she started out with.

The wild card to me is this racial stuff going on now, I'm not sure if its going to make blacks come out for hillary, make them shift to Trump due to dems being in control of the localities, or make them wait out this election in disgust.

Real Clear has her back up to a 3 point lead.

She was at 0.9 at one point.

Still to early, and too close to make any predictions yet. I have a feeling Trump is keeping his powder dry for October.

Predictions are not worth much.

But the instantaneous snapshot and recent trends tell you she is taking a beating.

if the trends continue...watch out.