Moore Now Trails By 12

[Synthaholic]

I'm personally holding out hope that Alabamians will not vote for Moore, when it comes down to it. I think Republican women will lead the way in voting for Doug Jones.

 

[Flopper]

Moore is finished and since he can’t be replaced on the ballot at this point nothing short of a write in campaign will save that seat for the Republicans

NRSC poll: Moore trails Jones by 12

Write in candidates have won elections but it is rare. If Moore remains in the race he will be splitting votes with the republican write-ins. With the democratic candidate ahead in polls now, that would surely mean a loss of a republican senate seat in congress. That would mean republican control of the Senate would be 51 seats to democrat's 48 seats with 2 independents who caucus with democrats. Republicans could afford to lose only one vote in the Senate. Considering the division Trump has brought to Congress, that would be a disaster for republicans.

 

[Zander]

Moore is a lock.

Take it to the bank.

Error | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

Alabama governor plans to vote for Moore even though ‘I have no reason to disbelieve’ accusers

 

[Flopper]

A republican write in with Moore in the race will not save the seat because the republican votes will be split. There is only two ways republicans can save that seat. Moore resigns and there there is huge campaign to support the republican write in or Moore has a phenomenal recovery.

 

[Zander]

A republican write in with Moore in the race will not save the seat because the republican votes will be split. There is only two ways republicans can save that seat. Moore resigns and there there is huge campaign to support the republican write in or Moore has a phenomenal recovery.

Recovery? Moore is ahead in the most recent polls. You are 2 steps behind as usual.....

Exclusive FOX10 Poll: Undecided voters may hold key to Moore/Jones race

 

[Flopper]

A Fox News poll on Thursday evening, yesterday showed Jones with a remarkable eight-point lead over Moore.

A republican write in with Moore in the race will not save the seat because the republican votes will be split. There is only two ways republicans can save that seat. Moore resigns and there there is huge campaign to support the republican write in or Moore has a phenomenal recovery.

Recovery? Moore is ahead in the most recent polls. You are 2 steps behind as usual.....

Exclusive FOX10 Poll: Undecided voters may hold key to Moore/Jones race

As of 3 hours ago, Polls Show Roy Moore Crashing in Alabama
Polls Show Roy Moore Crashing in Alabama

 

[sarahgop]

I'm personally holding out hope that Alabamians will not vote for Moore, when it comes down to it. I think Republican women will lead the way in voting for Doug Jones.

Lets see how many republican women want 9 month old babies butchered

 

[sarahgop]

A Fox News poll on Thursday evening, yesterday showed Jones with a remarkable eight-point lead over Moore.

A republican write in with Moore in the race will not save the seat because the republican votes will be split. There is only two ways republicans can save that seat. Moore resigns and there there is huge campaign to support the republican write in or Moore has a phenomenal recovery.

Recovery? Moore is ahead in the most recent polls. You are 2 steps behind as usual.....

Exclusive FOX10 Poll: Undecided voters may hold key to Moore/Jones race

As of 3 hours ago, Polls Show Roy Moore Crashing in Alabama
Polls Show Roy Moore Crashing in Alabama

Very few people will waste a vote on a write-in. If im a conservative in AL and my choice is Clinton or Moore i would vote for Moore.

 

[sarahgop]

Let me say one thing about these polls. If there were 3 attacks within a few days from muslim immigrants killing 20-30 people each in american cities i would suspect a poll taken a few days later would show overwhelming support for stopping muslim immigration then a month later they would go back to normal.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Moore is finished and since he can’t be replaced on the ballot at this point nothing short of a write in campaign will save that seat for the Republicans

NRSC poll: Moore trails Jones by 12

How is that going to make you feel when he wins, hmm?

I wouldn't be that surprised, frankly, given how partisan this country has become, but the State of Alabama ought to be embarrassed if he does.

 

[saveliberty]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2017 - Alabama Senate Special Election - Moore vs. Jones

Jones leads by 0.2 on the RCP average. Thing is, the polls it averages have a MoE average of 3.5....

 

[FA_Q2]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2017 - Alabama Senate Special Election - Moore vs. Jones

Jones leads by 0.2 on the RCP average. Thing is, the polls it averages have a MoE average of 3.5....

Because the polls are rather meaningless at this time.

Polling is entirely based on the pollsters methodology and mathematical calculations based on that methodology to calculate the actual results of the polls. This works when you have a tried and true method polling a standard situation. When you have massive extenuating circumstances that methodology becomes useless because you are no longer dealing with known behaviors but unknown ones that you have no idea how to weight.

That is what happened with Trump - that race was not standard at all and the methodologies used were no longer effective (no matter how much the pollsters want to blame it on those they polled). Here we have the same problem, the entire race is going to be based on the sex scandal and pollsters do not have any tried and true methods for dealing with the magnitude of this factor.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Is this actual election polls? Or bullshit polls?

 

[DarkFury]

The local channel TV poll has him up. National polls are very flawed for state races.

 

[Flopper]

Let me say one thing about these polls. If there were 3 attacks within a few days from muslim immigrants killing 20-30 people each in american cities i would suspect a poll taken a few days later would show overwhelming support for stopping muslim immigration then a month later they would go back to normal.

Polls are incredible accurate at measuring attitudes, opinion, and preferences at a given instant in time. Some preferences such as favorite foods or religion are slow to change. Preference for people that we don't know personally can change quickly, particularly if we don't have strong opinions about them.