The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mr. Trump’s Economic Policies
"Mr. Trump’s economic proposals will also result in larger federal government deficits and a heavier debt load. His personal and corporate tax cuts are massive and his proposals to expand spending on veterans and the military are significant. Given his stated opposition to changing entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, this mix of much lower tax revenues and few cuts in spending can only be financed by substantially more government borrowing."
"Those who would benefit most from Mr. Trump’s economic proposals are high income households."
"Even allowing for some variability in the accuracy of the economic modeling and underlying assumptions that drive the analysis, four basic conclusions regarding the impact of Mr. Trump’s economic proposals can be reached: 1) they will result in a less global U.S. economy; 2) they will lead to larger government deficits and more debt; 3) they will largely benefit very high-income households; and 4) they will result in a weaker U.S. economy, with fewer jobs and higher unemployment."
"By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today. During Mr. Trump’s presidency, the average American household’s after-inflation income will stagnate, and stock prices and real house values will decline."
"
The economic damage created by Mr. Trump’s policies is also stark when considering how the economy would perform if there were no significant changes to policy. That is, current law regarding tax and spending policy, immigration and trade policies, and all other fiscal policies remain in place. In this current law scenario, employment is expected to increase by 6 million jobs during Mr. Trump’s presidency. This compares with a decline of 3.4 million jobs over the same period if the candidates’ policies are fully implemented.
If you paid for those predictions, you should demand a refund.
UNEXPECTEDLY!
Once Again, Trump’s Economy Beats the ‘Experts.’
Once Again, Trump’s Economy Beats the ‘Experts’
It wasn’t long ago that economists were warning that President Trump’s government shutdown — which extended into late January — would wreak havoc on an already struggling economy, especially in the first quarter of the year.
So what are these experts saying now that GDP growth
accelerated to a startling 3.2% in the first three months of the year?
Early in the year, anyone following the news was being bombarded with warnings about the economic calamity that the lengthy (partial) government shutdown would cause.
“The government shutdown may have done significantly more damage than was projected at the time,” is how one writer at
Seeking Alpha put it.
Politico was clanging the alarm bells even more vigorously. “Across Wall Street, analysts are rushing out warnings that missed federal paychecks, dormant government contractors and shelved corporate stock offerings could push first-quarter growth close to or even below zero if the shutdown, which is wrapping up its fourth week, drags on much longer.”
A
Reuters poll of economists found that “U.S. economic growth will take a hit this quarter from the longest-ever government shutdown.”
At the start of the year, Macroeconomic Advisors pegged growth for Q1 at a mere 1.5 percent.
And AP reported in the first week of January that: “Analysts had already expected the economy to slow this year as a boost from tax cuts and increased government spending last year begins to wane. But the longer the shutdown persists, the more it could erode consumer and business confidence, compounding troubles for an economy that was already slowing.”
Scary!
Instead, the economy recorded its
highest quarterly growth rate since 2013.
This is hardly the first time the economy has unexpectedly done better than economists had predicted. Since Trump took office, growth has
repeatedly done better than the experts forecast, as his deregulatory efforts and pro-growth tax cuts have turbocharged an economy left moribund by Obamanomics.
So what are these economists saying now? According to the
New York Times, this surprisingly high level of growth is exaggerated.
“Economists warned that the report was
inflated by short-term factors and probably overstated the underlying pace of growth,” Ben Casselman reported. “Most anticipate a downshift as the year progresses, and hardly any independent economists expect that President Trump will be able to deliver the 3 percent growth he has promised this year.”
Got it? The same folks who were telling us to expect close to zero growth this quarter — and who consistently
overpromised growth during the Obama years — are now saying, trust us, the economy will slow soon.