I have met Mitt personally. He's very personable, exceptionally well informed, and extremely competent. If Obama's approval rating is still sitting in the 40's come Nov 2012, it will be President Romney.
1) It probably won't be. His approval rating is inching up. The economy is slightly improving.
I think this is true. Any election with an incumbent is a referendum on the incumbent. Who the challenger is makes some difference, but really only if it's a close election.
In terms of the rhythm of the saeculum, Barack Obama right now is in the same position as Abraham Lincoln in 1864 or Herbert Hoover in 1932: one term into a Crisis era. For all three presidents, the Crisis began within one year of his being elected. (For Obama, it began slightly
before he was elected. For Lincoln, his election was what started it.) The nature of the Crisis is more like what Hoover faced, but Obama's electoral position is more like Lincoln's, in that he'll be judged on whether things are getting better. For Lincoln, they were (Union victories in 1864 brought the end of the Civil War in sight) -- he won. For Hoover, they weren't -- he lost.
Because it's a Crisis era, and people sense that, the economy doesn't actually have to be "good" for Obama to be reelected, it just has to be seen to be improving. If the economy continues its slow improvement between now and next November, Obama will be unbeatable. If the Republicans could resurrect Ronald Reagan and nominate him, they'd still lose. If we get another economic crash, though, he's toast.
2) Sorry, man, 22% of the country won't vote for a Mormon. 26% don't think they are Christians and 22% aren't sure what they are. A real problem when 67% think the president ought to be a real Christian.
I hear you, and you're probably right, but must honestly say I find that disgusting. The big problem for Romney of course being that those most bothered by his Mormonism include a big chunk of the GOP base. (There are plenty of people on the left who don't like Mormons, either, but they wouldn't vote for Romney anyway.)
3) Romney will very likely trigger a third party challenge that will split the GOP vote.
Could be. The Republican Party is in a crisis of its own right now (as is the Democratic Party). Both are facing insurgencies upset by the corruption in our politics by big money, and both insurgencies see the parties as departing from what ought to be their principles so they can serve the fat cats. The difference is that while the insurgents on the Democratic side are pushing an agenda that would actually work, those on the GOP side want a return to government that would only work in a long-gone set of material circumstances.
We have such a weird situation right now. We have completely forgotten what the word "conservative" is supposed to mean: preservation of order, resistance to radical change, upholding of tradition. Those who call themselves "conservatives" are pushing an agenda of radical reaction that is the antithesis of real conservatism. The Republicans are supposed to be our conservative party, but they're not, and the Democrats aren't supposed to be (they're supposed to be our progressive party), but they have become conservative -- someone, after all, needs to fill those shoes or the nation will come apart at the seams.
I don't know how it will all shake out, but neither party is going to be the same when it's done. I suspect this may be a crucial year of change for the Republicans. For the Democrats, it's more likely to be 2016.