MIT's global warming prediction

[Chris]

...based on flawed models, cherry-picked data, and outright falsification.

Do you get paid per post?

Does atmospheric CO2 cause the earth to retain heat?

Nobody knows. And don't bring up that experiment again, because CO2 in a container with, what, 2 variables has nothing to do with a system as vast and complex as the entire planet.

Nobody knows!!!!!

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Big Fitz]

I really think that Chris needs his avatar forcibly changed to the George Lazenby Bond. Even Sean Connery would slap Chris's significant other around over the misuse of his image.

agreed. another moral dilemma.

I thought about maybe Blofeld or Dr. Evil... but they're too cool for him too although somewhat apropos.

Apparently Mr. Bigglesworth is not upset enough to make Global warming work this year.

 

[westwall]

We should all hope that the climate change is man caused, as that way it can be controlled. If it is only natural, then we will be the effect, and that has never been successful for a species. By dealing with it, we have little to lose, but by ignoring it, we may lose everything. Besides, someday we will run out of fossil fuels; we won't run out of solar, wind, hydro and tidal. And science may save the species.

Why do you think that? People live in areas that are far warmer then the projected worse case scenario. They don't seem to have a problem. The warmies will tell you that a 2 degree rise will halt food production. Try telling that to the Brazilians who produce massive amounts of food in an area 6 degrees warmer then here.

Warmth is not a problem, cold is. Nearly every major famine has been the result of cold weather that killed crops before they could get started.

 

[westwall]

Instead of models, lets look at the physical universe: melting ice caps both North and South, 87% of all glaciers are retreating, record high temps far outnumber record low temps, flora and fauna moving poleward at about 10 K per decade, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. None of these events are easy to hide or falsely create; the planet is showing us what is happening.

Look again. Glaciers are advancing all over the world.

You dumb **** of a liar. What the hell do you think you are doing? That stupid lie is so easy to check.
Global glacier retreat


The world operates on fantastically long periods of time. In the time you live your entire life the Earth breathes three times. You have no concept of how the planet functions. It takes years for anything to happen.

Both going into and coming out of the Younger Dryas, the major temperature change occured in the period of a decade.

NOAA Paleoclimatology Program - Perspective on Abrupt climate Change

And then there are the Heinrich events. You do know what those are, right?

Tropical vegetation evidence for rapid sea level changes associated with Heinrich Events

A Cariaco Basin pollen record shows the development of tropical salt marshes during marine isotope stage 3. Rapid and abrupt expansions of salt marsh vegetation in tropical South America are associated with north Atlantic Heinrich Events stadials (HE-stadials). Intervals of salt marsh expansion have an internal structure, which consists of a recurrent alternation of species that starts with pollen increments of Chenopodiaceae, that are followed by increments of grasses, and subsequently by increments of Cyperaceae. This pattern suggests a successional process that is determined by the close relationship between sea-level and plant community dynamics. The salt tolerant Chenopodiaceae, indicate hypersaline intertidal environments, which were most likely promoted by extremely dry atmospheric conditions. Rapid sea-level rise characterizes the onset of HE-stadials, causing the continued recruitment of pioneer species, which are the only ones tolerating rapid rates of disturbance. Once sea-level rise decelerates, marsh plants are able to trap and stabilize sediments, favouring the establishment of more competitive species. These results add to the scarce knowledge on the dynamics of tropical salt marsh ecosystems, and provide independent paleoclimatic evidence on sea-level changes following Antarctic climate variability.



We have seen the temp increases halt and they have stayed constant for ten years and now they are going into decline.

What a crock of shit. 2010 tied 2005 and 1998 for the hottest year on record. So, within the space of 12 years you have the three warmest years on record. Not only that, the 10 warmest years on record are all within that period. Even by Dr. Spencers graphs, you can clearly see the rise since 1998.

UAH Temperature Update for May, 2011: +0.13 deg. C « Roy Spencer, Ph. D.

That's why there have been record snowstorms the last three winters in a row. You are correct, we can see what is happening. And it's not what the warmists predicted it would be.

Record snow storms, but not record colds temps such as those in the early part of the 20th Century.

In spite of part of a record La Nina occuring in the latter half of 2010, that year matched 2005, and 1998 for warmth. Now we are in 2011, predicted by fools like you to be the coldest in a long time, and the first three months were just barely negative, -0.01, -0.02, and -0.1 for January, February, and March. And now April and May have had positive temperatures, 0.12, and 0.13.

At this rate, the median temperature low for this year will be above all the other median highs save that of 1998 and 2010, by Dr. Spences graph.

Record snow storms represent record precipitation, exactly as predicted.

What was that? Below are a few of the glaciers that are advancing. Nice try little man.

"When Vancouver explored the southeastern Alaska coast in 1794 he found Glacier Bay filled with ice. Today it is mostly ice-free, but glaciologist William 0. Field predicts that it may fill with ice again over a period of hundreds of years.

Though many Alaskan glaciers are retreating, quite a few others are advancing. Dr. Pield, still active after fifty years of glacial observation, cites examples of glaciers nearly side by side, some of which are retreating and others advancing. He concludes that factors other than climate change must be responsible.

Especially when glaciers spill into the sea, it appears that an unstable equilibrium exists. While the glacier ice always flows forward, the glacial snout advances and retreats, its position being determined by a complex interplay of snowfall, temperature through the year, deposition of rock debris and effects of ocean tides on iceberg calving rates.

Studies lasting many tens of years are necessary to unravel these effects, effects that can have serious consequences to coastal shipping and land transportation facilities in glaciated areas.


Glaciers Advancing or Retreating?, Alaska Science Forum

Advancing Glacier Coming Close to Blocking Fiord Near Yakutat, Alaska

Advancing Alaskan Glacier Holds Clues to Global Sea Level Rise: Scientific American

SwissEduc: Glaciers Online - Glaciers of the World

Argentine glacier grows despite warming - US news - Environment - Climate Change - msnbc.com

 

[westwall]

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s.

The question is no longer whether global warming is upon us … but how we can rise to its challenge.

MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is a world leader in this effort. Our many activities cohere around one strategy: science and policy have to work together.​

They had their minds made up going in. No surprise their models arrived at the predetermined conclusion.

Computers can't predetermine.

But you can.

Sure they can. Computers are only as good as their code. The code used for the climate change models are horribly out of date and the people programing them are barely competent enough to do the basics. You can put any numbers into their models and the result is allways the same. That is a fail.

 

[Chris]

We should all hope that the climate change is man caused, as that way it can be controlled. If it is only natural, then we will be the effect, and that has never been successful for a species. By dealing with it, we have little to lose, but by ignoring it, we may lose everything. Besides, someday we will run out of fossil fuels; we won't run out of solar, wind, hydro and tidal. And science may save the species.

Why do you think that? People live in areas that are far warmer then the projected worse case scenario. They don't seem to have a problem. The warmies will tell you that a 2 degree rise will halt food production. Try telling that to the Brazilians who produce massive amounts of food in an area 6 degrees warmer then here.

Warmth is not a problem, cold is. Nearly every major famine has been the result of cold weather that killed crops before they could get started.

So you agree that we are warming the earth?

 

[Baruch Menachem]

Answer the question, Frank.

Does CO2 cause the atmosphere to retain heat?

According to Wiki, Earth atmosphere is 5 * 10^18 kg or about 5 *10 ^15 tons

First, you say we're adding "1,000 billion tons" as if that's some large number, when all it works out to is another 200PPM increase in CO2.

Is that finally your hypothesis? A 200PPM increase in CO2 will cause a 3-7 degree increase in temperature?

Does atmospheric CO2 cause the earth to retain heat?

If it does, it is just one of many factors. And if it does, does a 200ppm increase result in a 7 degree increase? Water vapor is a big deal too.

If you have prescription, first you need to establish that the prescription won't do more harm than the threat. You also need to establish that the prescription will actually do what it is billed to do, reduce carbon in the atmosphere.

If there is a relation between carbon and temperature it should be observable as a cause and effect relation. That has not been established.

All you have is a cure that won't work for a problem you can't really demonstrate a definite relation for.

 

[Toronado3800]

Exit glacier is growing?

Come on, someone quote Inhofe and....how do u spell it..., the writer..Chrichton

 

[westwall]

I didn't think so.

The science is not in dispute. CO2 causes the earth to retain heat. We are adding 10 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere every year. Soon we will have doubled the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. This is warming the earth.

Thus spaketh The Goracle.

You serve your masters well, and you will be rewarded.

Huh?

None of that is in dispute.

That's why every national science organization on the planet accepts man made global warming.

And as far as being rewarded, I do quite well thank you.

Of course you do, oil companies pay their minions quite well. You do your masters proud.

 

[westwall]

We should all hope that the climate change is man caused, as that way it can be controlled. If it is only natural, then we will be the effect, and that has never been successful for a species. By dealing with it, we have little to lose, but by ignoring it, we may lose everything. Besides, someday we will run out of fossil fuels; we won't run out of solar, wind, hydro and tidal. And science may save the species.

Why do you think that? People live in areas that are far warmer then the projected worse case scenario. They don't seem to have a problem. The warmies will tell you that a 2 degree rise will halt food production. Try telling that to the Brazilians who produce massive amounts of food in an area 6 degrees warmer then here.

Warmth is not a problem, cold is. Nearly every major famine has been the result of cold weather that killed crops before they could get started.

So you agree that we are warming the earth?

No, not at all. The world operates on its own cycles and the world has been warming for the last 11,000 years on its own. There are subcycles that move between warm and cold like the RWP and the MWP and the 6th Century Climate Catastrophe and the Little Ice Age.

They happened when man was completely unable to affect the world in even a miniscule way. The Vostock ice core data clearly shows that CO2 increase is a result of warming, not the driver.

Man is quite capable of destroying the local environment, but planet wide is still thankfully beyond mans ability.

However, given the choice between a hot world and a cold one the hot world is far superior to the cold.

 

[RWatt]

"No, not at all. The world operates on its own cycles and the world has been warming for the last 11,000 years on its own. There are subcycles that move between warm and cold like the RWP and the MWP and the 6th Century Climate Catastrophe and the Little Ice Age."

Interestingly though those temperature changes were in tenths of a degree. That they are notable at all speaks volumes about the effects a 2C global temperature rise will have.

And one thing about global temperature changes is they tend to hide the fact the land (where everyone lives) will warm up a lot more than the average.

Take A1B for example, that's about 2.5C warming globally over the 21st century. But as you can see from the map that average is dragged down by the oceans. Land temperatures from 2.5C global warming are a lot higher, about 4 degrees C with some areas at high latitudes experiencing as much as 7C warming.

Another little recognized thing is the warming wouldn't stop there. That's the warming by the last decade of the 21st century, what's interesting, but even the IPCC don't go there, is to contemplate how much worse it gets going into the 22nd century. Man is completely hosed by that point as the changes once the world warms that much are very hard to reverse with some changes even being irreversible.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Answer the question, Frank.

Does CO2 cause the atmosphere to retain heat?

According to Wiki, Earth atmosphere is 5 * 10^18 kg or about 5 *10 ^15 tons

First, you say we're adding "1,000 billion tons" as if that's some large number, when all it works out to is another 200PPM increase in CO2.

Is that finally your hypothesis? A 200PPM increase in CO2 will cause a 3-7 degree increase in temperature?

Does atmospheric CO2 cause the earth to retain heat?

As you propose, no it does not.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

YouTube - ‪CO2 experiment‬‏

Note the "rather large canister of CO2"

You hypothesize that a 200PPM increase in CO2 causes a 7 degrees increase, but these cute experiments are always 4 orders of magnitude more CO2 than you suggest.

You show your hypothesis can't possibly be accurate EVERY TIME you post these "CO2 Experiments"

This is like putting a Cold Fusion experiment in the middle of the test of a hydrogen bomb test and claiming Cold Fusion was the culprit.

Epic Fail, Every time.

 

[daveman]

Does atmospheric CO2 cause the earth to retain heat?

Nobody knows. And don't bring up that experiment again, because CO2 in a container with, what, 2 variables has nothing to do with a system as vast and complex as the entire planet.

Nobody knows!!!!!

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, nobody knows. Unless you're willing to make the case that CO2 in a container with, what, 2 variables is exactly like a system as vast and complex as the entire planet.

Are you willing to do that? Or do you want to grow up and see the error of your ways?

 

[ScienceRocks]

Nobody knows. And don't bring up that experiment again, because CO2 in a container with, what, 2 variables has nothing to do with a system as vast and complex as the entire planet.

Nobody knows!!!!!

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, nobody knows. Unless you're willing to make the case that CO2 in a container with, what, 2 variables is exactly like a system as vast and complex as the entire planet.

Are you willing to do that? Or do you want to grow up and see the error of your ways?

I don't think it is possible for such. Seriously.

 

[peach174]

Is there any studies as to why this spring has been so much cooler?
It's June 12th and I still have to run the heater between 3:00 am to 7:00 am and I live in the desert southwest.

 

[Big Fitz]

Is there any studies as to why this spring has been so much cooler?
It's June 12th and I still have to run the heater between 3:00 am to 7:00 am and I live in the desert southwest.

Because for... what now? 24 months or so, the sun has been producing less heat due to fewer sunspots. Or has someone else heard of the activity returning to normal?

 

[daveman]

Nobody knows!!!!!

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, nobody knows. Unless you're willing to make the case that CO2 in a container with, what, 2 variables is exactly like a system as vast and complex as the entire planet.

Are you willing to do that? Or do you want to grow up and see the error of your ways?

I don't think it is possible for such. Seriously.

Probably not, but I'm a glass-is-half-full kinda guy.

 

[Chris]

Is there any studies as to why this spring has been so much cooler?
It's June 12th and I still have to run the heater between 3:00 am to 7:00 am and I live in the desert southwest.

Because for... what now? 24 months or so, the sun has been producing less heat due to fewer sunspots. Or has someone else heard of the activity returning to normal?

Gee, if only there was some way to look up things like this using a computer.

Wouldn't that be nice?

The sun went through its lowest level of activity in 80 years a year ago, and the temperatures continued to rise. Russia had the hottest summer ever recorded, and their records go back 1,000 years.

So glad you brought this up.

 

[Big Fitz]

Is there any studies as to why this spring has been so much cooler?
It's June 12th and I still have to run the heater between 3:00 am to 7:00 am and I live in the desert southwest.

Because for... what now? 24 months or so, the sun has been producing less heat due to fewer sunspots. Or has someone else heard of the activity returning to normal?

Gee, if only there was some way to look up things like this using a computer.

Wouldn't that be nice?

The sun went through its lowest level of activity in 80 years a year ago, and the temperatures continued to rise. Russia had the hottest summer ever recorded, and their records go back 1,000 years.

So glad you brought this up.

Really? Their records go back to BEFORE the Khanate took over in the 1300's? Before Muscovy united the city states under Peter the Great and then Katherine the Great? There are solid and accurate records that go back through that stuff? I never realized that warring, constantly mobile, not known for any scientific curiosity cultures could have such advanced concepts and foresight to watch for global warming back then as they fought for their lives and tried to not die from the harsh climate.

Or are you trying to blow smoke up my ass based on the 3 cherry picked trees in Siberia that Mann and company used as the basis of their fraudulent data that they then destroyed before it was discovered to be bullshit?

Those records perchance?