May or June

[william the wie]

This year will it be sell in May and walk away or will it be QE II will end in june and then the market will swoon?

I was just wondering what the opinions are out there.

 

[expat_panama]

"October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."
- Mark Twain

--and then Dave Berry warned us about the dangers of stock investing by telling us about a guy who bought some stocks and the next day he was crushed to death under a huge pile of money.

There're so many factors that my experience tells me to watch what's happening now, and I see Investor's Business Daily call current trends 'market in confirmed rally'. I'm buying now, and if things change I'll sell.

 

[william the wie]

"October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."
- Mark Twain

--and then Dave Berry warned us about the dangers of stock investing by telling us about a guy who bought some stocks and the next day he was crushed to death under a huge pile of money.

There're so many factors that my experience tells me to watch what's happening now, and I see Investor's Business Daily call current trends 'market in confirmed rally'. I'm buying now, and if things change I'll sell.

Thanks, I suspect I trade much less than you do but I do appreciate your response.

 

[expat_panama]

...I'm buying now, and if things change I'll sell.

Thanks, I suspect I trade much less than you do but I do appreciate your response.

LOL right after I posted that things changed and I sold half my holdings!

All we know is what's been happening and we act accordingly. It's like driving down the freeway while only looking through the rear view mirror...

 

[william the wie]

I just play the odds and try to limit my downside.

 

[editec]

Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect.

I don't envy you guys.

 

[expat_panama]

I just play the odds and try to limit my downside.

Most people emphasis protection from losses over desire for gain but that can be a trap. Most people prefer to risk ten bucks placing bets in a casino but I prefer putting more on the line by owning the casino. Odds favor owners.

Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect. I don't envy you guys.

Ah it's tough. Some days it takes hours to get to my desk in the morning having to dig though all the money piled on it. I'm glad you understand what I have to put up with.

Seriously, these days you can open a brokerage account with 50 bucks.

 

[william the wie]

Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect.

I don't envy you guys.

You must be relatively young. It has been very hard not to get relatively rich by 55-60 in the US for a very long time. The rules are simple:

Avoid divorce.

Avoid jail.

Live slightly below your means

And that is about it. You can get 18% compound returns simply by not using credit cards and double your free cashflow relative to your peers every four years regular as clockwork.

 

[editec]

I just play the odds and try to limit my downside.

Most people emphasis protection from losses over desire for gain but that can be a trap. Most people prefer to risk ten bucks placing bets in a casino but I prefer putting more on the line by owning the casino. Odds favor owners.

Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect. I don't envy you guys.

Ah it's tough. Some days it takes hours to get to my desk in the morning having to dig though all the money piled on it. I'm glad you understand what I have to put up with.

Seriously, these days you can open a brokerage account with 50 bucks.

I think you imagine that I was being insincere.

I wasn't.

People who have nothing to lose (and that's most people, ya know) really do not have to jump to action when they see changes in the market.

They have nothing to lose, ergo they have nothing to protect.

Right now most people with something to lose don't know whether to shit or go blind.

 

[expat_panama]

People who have nothing to lose (and that's most people, ya know)...

There's where we hit a disconnect.

Words mean things. Anyone that's got something that they'd pay a lot of money to keep, something that others without it would pay a lot of money or do a lot of work to get, then that person has something and it's something really good.

That describes everyone living in the US. It also includes everyone who's healthy, or even alive. Let's add anyone not in jail or not in debt, or anyone with $100 to their name.

 

[william the wie]

People who have nothing to lose (and that's most people, ya know)...

There's where we hit a disconnect.

Words mean things. Anyone that's got something that they'd pay a lot of money to keep, something that others without it would pay a lot of money or do a lot of work to get, then that person has something and it's something really good.

That describes everyone living in the US. It also includes everyone who's healthy, or even alive. Let's add anyone not in jail or not in debt, or anyone with $100 to their name.

Yeah, but often people don't realize what they have until its gone.

 

[expat_panama]

...people don't realize what they have until its gone.

Absolutely, doom'n'gloom is a natural human tendency and for that reason I make it a point every day to re-inventory all the good around me and then give thanks.

Much more 'reality oriented' than doom'n'gloom.

 

[william the wie]

...people don't realize what they have until its gone.

Absolutely, doom'n'gloom is a natural human tendency and for that reason I make it a point every day to re-inventory all the good around me and then give thanks.

Much more 'reality oriented' than doom'n'gloom.

I can remember a downturn in family income when Dad was blinded in his right eye during the 58 Lebanon crisis and that was followed by older brother Pat getting rheumatic fever in 1960. I had to show up at four different jobs each week to save the babysitter costs I would have cost, didn't do much work (I was 7 when Dad took Pat to Bethesda) but did pull my weight best as I knew how. People do not realize that bad things can happen to them until they do. It is best to learn that lesson young.

 

[Trajan]

Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect.

I don't envy you guys.

You must be relatively young. It has been very hard not to get relatively rich by 55-60 in the US for a very long time. The rules are simple:

Avoid divorce.

Avoid jail.

Live slightly below your means

And that is about it. You can get 18% compound returns simply by not using credit cards and double your free cashflow relative to your peers every four years regular as clockwork.

I would add; if you own a home, make your mortgage payments every 2 weeks as well.

 

[Trajan]

...people don't realize what they have until its gone.

Absolutely, doom'n'gloom is a natural human tendency and for that reason I make it a point every day to re-inventory all the good around me and then give thanks.

Much more 'reality oriented' than doom'n'gloom.

agreed, I don't think a week goes by that I don't take a look around and 'get grateful'. Its takes a bit of humility too

 

[william the wie]

Sounds good to me Trajan but except for 12 years I have not dealt with mortgages in my life, I prefer to pay cash or do without.

 

[Trajan]

Oh hey on topic...I told ya'll what my deep cover buddy said...when the dollar hits the June 08 low,(note I said when not IF) the shit will hit the fan, it will be scorched earth.

 

[expat_panama]

...take a look around and 'get grateful'. Its takes a bit of humility...

Ah, you've just explained why so very many people are unhappy and ungrateful. Thanks!

 

[editec]

Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect.

I don't envy you guys.

You must be relatively young. It has been very hard not to get relatively rich by 55-60 in the US for a very long time. The rules are simple:

Avoid divorce.

Avoid jail.

Live slightly below your means

And that is about it. You can get 18% compound returns simply by not using credit cards and double your free cashflow relative to your peers every four years regular as clockwork.

Good advice.

But there's many a slip twix cup and lip.

For instance you completely neglected:

don't get a serious long term illness.

...don't go into a career path that will end thanks to changes in the world that you couldn't possibly have expected.

...don't get hit by a bus, shot in driveby and a host of other events over which one seldom has control

... and on and on and on with all the possible senarios that actually happen to people that make your sage advice so sound, otherwise.

Now in my case I acept full responsibility for my economy.

But to imagine that a few simple rules will assure long term prosperity?

That my friend is known as whistling in the dark.


Small advantages that many people have(, and that far more people do not have) early in life will certainly dramatically effect when one ends up.

How small those advantages can seem at the time, but how enormously those modest benefits can accrue over time.

Could be something as simple as getting a decent job early, leading to huge oppoprtunities in the future, or even something so small as not getting a flat tire at the wrong time, or just knowing somebody who knows somebody who knows somebody.

People who have had such minor advantages tend discount their significance.

And by doing so, they agrandize themselves by suggesting that their sucess was all a matter of their careful planning, their industry and the harships they suffered to save and whatnot.

It's as much a conceit to think that your success is entirely the result of your decisions in life, as it is to blame your failures on other people. Voth POVs are highly overstated and people CLING to them because it helps them cope regardless of whether their fate is happy or horrid.


And those are two kinds of conceit that pretty much all of us tend to tell ourselves to some degree or the other.

 

[william the wie]

Oh hey on topic...I told ya'll what my deep cover buddy said...when the dollar hits the June 08 low,(note I said when not IF) the shit will hit the fan, it will be scorched earth.

I don't do FOREX so could you expand on that?