"but independent Hispanic voters were especially energized to vote in 2018, more than doubling turnout on average in the seven states analyzed."
Independent voters are the ones who overwhelmingly side with Trump on border security.
North Carolina
- The number of Hispanic registered voters grew by 28 percent while non-Hispanics declined by four percent
- The Republican party saw a 47 percent increase in Hispanic voter turnout versus a 115 percent increase for Democrats
- Hispanic turnout increased 4.3 times as much than non-Hispanic turnout between 2014 and 2018
Dueling links is a fun game, especially when I think both parties suck. Trump, however, is not in trouble with Hispanics. The more the dems make that the center of their debates, the worse it will be for them. They would do well to discuss issues they are not on thin ice about.
Hispanics Far From Wanting Open Borders
Despite the
notion that Hispanics in the United States should support lax immigration enforcement and open borders, recent midterm exit polling conducted by Zogby Analytics indicates that Hispanics are very much concerned with illegal immigration and the nation’s border security. Below are some key findings from the polling:
- 85.2% of Hispanic respondents agree that illegal immigration is a problem to the United States with close to a third (30.7%) claiming it be a very serious problem.
- Nearly half (47.9%) of all Hispanic voters support building border fencing authorized by Congress in 2006 along the Southwest border.
- The majority (58.4%) of all Hispanic respondents agree that U.S. employers should be using E-Verify to determine if workers are legally eligible to work in the United States.
- Close to half (45.1%) of all Hispanic respondents say that they support President Trump’s policies to address illegal immigration and border security.
- More than three-quarters (77.6%) of Hispanic respondents say that they believe it is necessary to maintain a law enforcement agency dedicated to enforcing immigration laws.
Trump’s Secret to Victory in 2020: Hispanic Voters
Many expected Hispanics to vote overwhelmingly against Trump in 2016. A Latino Decisions poll conducted just before the 2016 presidential election found Trump had the support of just 18 percent of Hispanics. But the actual figure was 28 percent, which—given Trump’s incendiary rhetoric about immigrants—some analysts and pundits refused to believe from exit polls until further studies confirmed it. That was just as good as Mitt Romney, as the 2012 Republican nominee, did with Hispanics—and it was enough to help Trump squeak an Electoral College victory.
If Hillary Clinton had improved her share of the Hispanic vote by just 3 percentage points in Florida (from 62 percent to 65 percent of the Hispanic vote) and Michigan (from 59 percent to 62 percent), she would have won both states and their combined 45 Electoral College votes. That would have been enough to make her president. Slightly bigger swings—let alone the Democrats’ 88 percent-8 percent margin among African-Americans—could have added Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin into the blue column as well.
Now, here’s the brutal truth for Democrats: If Hispanic Americans are in fact showing surging approval of Trump, he could be on his way to matching or exceeding the 40 percent won by George W. Bush in his 2004. If Trump does 12 percentage points better than his 2016 numbers with the growing Hispanic vote, it pretty much takes Florida, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina off the table for Democrats, who would need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to reach the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House. At the same time, that 12-point shift would give Trump a clear shot at winning Colorado and Nevada, states where Hispanic voters make up well over 10 percent of the electorate and where Clinton won by 5 percentage points or less in 2016.