Mass shooting: At Least 11 Shot At Gilroy Garlic Festival

[M14 Shooter]

Sorry, I was unclear with the measure I was using. I'm looking at "overall firearm death rates", which includes suicide, self-defense, and accidents.

For SEVERAL posts, it was "homicides"
NOW, its "overall firearms deaths"
How heavy -is- that goalpost?

 

[XponentialChaos]

Correlation does not imply causation. When dealing with multiple variables, one can come up with any ridiculous argument.

The only person arguing correlation of any kind here is you.
I have, several times, posted out a fact that -negates- your claimed correlation.
I realize that you don't want to talk about this because it counters your argument

That's what I'm doing. And in doing so, there is a moderate correlation.

Correlation does not imply causation.
So...?

A correlation does not necessarily imply a causation.

Can you explain why there is a moderate to strong correlation between gun ownership rates and gun-related deaths? Or do you think that's purely a coincidence?

 

[2aguy]

Your point has been brought up before. The theory by anti-gun activists is that regardless of those other factors......More Guns = More Gun crime. That is where they hang their hat.

So.....the point they miss, and I think you miss....is that over those 26 years.....whether or not normal people owning guns was a factor in reducing gun crime.....

More Guns in the hands of law abiding people did not increase the gun crime rates...

So over that 26 years.....more Americans own and actually carry guns....17.25 million Americans from about 4 million actually being able to legally carry guns.....and the gun crime rates went still went down.

So the core theory is wrong....More Guns did not = More gun crime.

Now, it is true that various factors made the murder rate go down, more police, smarter police tactics and so on.......but that isn't their argument or their point.......

Also, for one thing........if you are being attacked, and you use a gun to stop the attack....that crime didn't happen to you....

Then, I have actual research from various researchers who state that there is a correlation to decreases in interpersonal crime when more people own and carry guns...for example, there are more home invasions in Britain than here in the U.S....why? When researchers ask criminals in prison, they state they go into empty houses in the U.S. because they don't want to get shot. In Britain, the criminals don't care about people being home, because they don't have guns...and since they don't have guns, they can be tied up and questioned about where their belongings are...

I don't think I got a clear answer so I'll keep this one short and more direct.

I don't want to discuss the 26 year time period, which I consider an extraneous variable.

Removing that variable from the discussion, it's a fact that states with more gun ownership have more gun homicides. Why is that?

It's not even a low correlation. It's a moderate to high correlation. Very distinct.

That is not a fact....

The reason you want to ignore the 26 year period is because it shows that the claim that more guns = more gun crime did not come true...over 26 years of actual experience....gun murder down 49%, gun crime down 75%, violent crime down 72%....which wouldn't have happened if more guns = more gun crime......

You Know Less Than You Think About Guns

Do Gun Laws Stop Gun Crimes?

The same week Kristof's column came out, National Journal attracted major media attention with a showy piece of research and analysis headlined "The States With The Most Gun Laws See The Fewest Gun-Related Deaths." The subhead lamented: "But there's still little appetite to talk about more restrictions."

Critics quickly noted that the Journal's Libby Isenstein had included suicides among "gun-related deaths" and suicide-irrelevant policies such as stand-your-ground laws among its tally of "gun laws." That meant that high-suicide, low-homicide states such as Wyoming, Alaska, and Idaho were taken to task for their liberal carry-permit policies. Worse, several of the states with what the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence considers terribly lax gun laws were dropped from Isenstein's data set because their murder rates were too low!

Another of National Journal's mistakes is a common one in gun science: The paper didn't look at gun statistics in the context of overall violent crime, a much more relevant measure to the policy debate. After all, if less gun crime doesn't mean less crime overall—if criminals simply substitute other weapons or means when guns are less available—the benefit of the relevant gun laws is thrown into doubt. When Thomas Firey of the Cato Institute ran regressions of Isenstein's study with slightly different specifications and considering all violent crime, each of her effects either disappeared or reversed.

Another recent well-publicized study trying to assert a positive connection between gun laws and public safety was a 2013 JAMA Internal Medicine article by the Harvard pediatrics professor Eric W. Fleegler and his colleagues, called "Firearm Legislation and Firearm-Related Fatalities in the United States." It offered a mostly static comparison of the toughness of state gun laws (as rated by the gun control lobbyists at the Brady Center) with gun deaths from 2007 to 2010.

"States with strictest firearm laws have lowest rates of gun deaths," a Boston Globeheadline then announced. But once again, if you take the simple, obvious step of separating out suicides from murders, the correlations that buttress the supposed causations disappear. As John Hinderaker headlined his reaction at the Power Line blog, "New Study Finds Firearm Laws Do Nothing to Prevent Homicides."

Among other anomalies in Fleegler's research, Hinderaker pointed out that it didn't include Washington, D.C., with its strict gun laws and frequent homicides. If just one weak-gun-law state, Louisiana, were taken out of the equation, "the remaining nine lowest-regulation states have an average gun homicide rate of 2.8 per 100,000, which is 12.5% less than the average of the ten states with the strictest gun control laws," he found.

October interview with Slate and found it wanting: "There have been studies that have essentially toted up the number of laws various states have on the books and examined the association between the number of laws and rates of firearm death," said Wintemute, who is a medical doctor and researcher at the University of California, Davis. "That's really bad science, and it shouldn't inform policymaking."

Wintemute thinks the factor such studies don't adequately consider is the number of people in a state who have guns to begin with, which is generally not known or even well-estimated on levels smaller than national, though researchers have used proxies from subscribers to certain gun-related magazines and percentages of suicides committed with guns to make educated guesses. "Perhaps these laws decrease mortality by decreasing firearm ownership, in which case firearm ownership mediates the association," Wintemute wrote in a 2013 JAMA Internal Medicine paper. "But perhaps, and more plausibly, these laws are more readily enacted in states where the prevalence of firearm ownership is low—there will be less opposition to them—and firearm ownership confounds the association."

------

Would Cracking Down on Guns in the U.S. Really Reduce Violence? , by Robert VerBruggen, National Review

There is actually no simple correlation between states’ homicide rates and their gun-ownership rates or gun laws.
This has been shown numerous times, by different people, using different data sets.

A year ago, I took state gun-ownership levels reported by the Washington Post (based on a Centers for Disease Control survey) and compared them with murder rates from the FBI: no correlation.

The legal scholar Eugene Volokh has compared states’ gun laws (as rated by the anti-gun Brady Campaign) with their murder rates: no correlation.

David Freddoso of the Washington Examiner, a former National Review reporter, failed to find a correlation even between gun ownership in a state and gun murders specifically, an approach that sets aside the issue of whether gun availability has an effect on non-gun crime. (Guns can deter unarmed criminals, for instance, and criminals without guns may simply switch to other weapons.)


, I recently redid my analysis with a few tweaks. Instead of relying on a single year of survey data, I averaged three years. (The CDC survey, the best available for state-level numbers, included data on gun ownership only in 2001, 2002, and 2004. Those were the years I looked at.)

And instead of comparing CDC data with murder rates from a different agency, I relied on the CDC’s own estimates of death by assault in those years. Again: no correlation.

------

Left-leaning media outlets, from Mother Jones to National Journal, get around this absence of correlation by reporting numbers on “gun deaths” rather than gun homicides or homicides in general.
More than 60 percent of gun deaths nationally are suicides, and places with higher gun ownership typically see a higher percentage of their suicides committed with a gun.
Focusing on the number of gun deaths practically guarantees a finding that guns and violence go together. While it may be true that public policy should also seek to reduce suicide, it is homicide — often a dramatic mass killing — that usually prompts the media and politicians to call for gun control, and it is homicide that most influences people as they consider supporting measures to take away their fellow citizens’ access to guns.
There are large gaps among the states when it comes to homicide, with rates ranging all the way from about two to twelve per 100,000 in 2013, the most recent year of data available from the CDC. These disparities show that it’s not just guns that cause the United States to have, on average, a higher rate of homicide than other developed countries do. Not only is there no correlation between gun ownership and overall homicide within a state, but there is a strong correlation between gun homicide and non-gun homicide — suggesting that they spring from similar causes, and that some states are simply more violent than others. A closer look at demographic and geographic patterns provides some clues as to why this is.

It is a fact. I ran the numbers myself. Give me Pearson's correlation coefficient for the numbers and tell me what you come up with. I'm getting 0.698.

Once again, you're giving me a block of text regarding gun crime. I'm not talking about gun crime so I don't see the use in posting or reading those links.

I'm specifically talking about the connection between gun ownership rate vs gun homicides.

Sorry....your stats don't hold up.... again....26 years, more gun ownership.....gun murder down 49%........are you playing the game where you include suicide?

If you don't think the numbers hold up, then run the number yourself and let me know what you get. The numbers obtained are from the following links:

What Is Gun Ownership Like on a State by State Basis?
Firearm death rates in the United States by state - Wikipedia

Sorry, I was unclear with the measure I was using. I'm looking at "overall firearm death rates", which includes suicide, self-defense, and accidents.

Got it.....looked at your wikipedia link....

Suicides......that is how you do it......

Suicides do not count....Japan, China, have extreme gun control and suicide rates that dwarf ours...as do many countries in Europe and many years Canada.......

You pulled the gun murder, gun suicide trick......

Gun murder is down 49% over the last 26 years as more Americans own and carry guns...sorry.....you have no case.

 

[XponentialChaos]

States with higher gun ownership rates tend to have a higher rate of homicides. Why is this?

Dunno. Tell us.

Possibly both a correlation and a causation?

 

[XponentialChaos]

Sorry, I was unclear with the measure I was using. I'm looking at "overall firearm death rates", which includes suicide, self-defense, and accidents.

For SEVERAL posts, it was "homicides"
NOW, its "overall firearms deaths"
How heavy -is- that goalpost?

My mistake.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Can you explain why there is a moderate to strong correlation between gun ownership rates and gun-related deaths

What happened to "homicides"?
No. Tell us.

 

[2aguy]

Sorry, I was unclear with the measure I was using. I'm looking at "overall firearm death rates", which includes suicide, self-defense, and accidents.

For SEVERAL posts, it was "homicides"
NOW, its "overall firearms deaths"
How heavy -is- that goalpost?

Yep....the oldest trick in the anti-gun play book....bait and switch....

We talk gun murder....they say the word "homicide" and then, when you aren't looking, they are tossing in suicides to pad their numbers because they can't explain how the gun murder rate actually dropped 49% as more Americans own and carry guns....

Their theory did not hold up over the last 26 years of actual experience.

 

[M14 Shooter]

States with higher gun ownership rates tend to have a higher rate of homicides. Why is this?

Dunno. Tell us.

Possibly both a correlation and a causation?

Dunno. Tell us.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Sorry, I was unclear with the measure I was using. I'm looking at "overall firearm death rates", which includes suicide, self-defense, and accidents.

For SEVERAL posts, it was "homicides"
NOW, its "overall firearms deaths"
How heavy -is- that goalpost?

My mistake.

Your mistake... repeated over and over and over...

 

[XponentialChaos]

Got it.....looked at your wikipedia link....

Suicides......that is how you do it......

Suicides do not count....Japan, China, have extreme gun control and suicide rates that dwarf ours...as do many countries in Europe and many years Canada.......

You pulled the gun murder, gun suicide trick......

Gun murder is down 49% over the last 26 years as more Americans own and carry guns...sorry.....you have no case.

I agree that suicides are much different than murder.

But it remains a fact that states with more gun ownership have more gun-related death. More guns does not mean more murder, but more guns does in fact mean more death.

 

[M14 Shooter]

[
But it remains a fact that states with more gun ownership have more gun-related death. More guns does not mean more murder, but more guns does in fact mean more death.

Except for the fact the number of guns has increased and the number of gun-related deaths has not.

 

[2aguy]

To show I am willing to compromise....

I can live with the current background check system, no universal background check.....and the system should simply be a pass/fail, with no permanent record kept....and we can already to this.....you simply submit your name, if it comes back as a criminal or on the nutcase list...fail.....no registration of every single gun owner to do that...we register actual criminals instead. We can already do it.....

Why do you oppose universal? Wouldn’t that be more efficient and effective?

Why do you oppose universal?

useless.

Keeps honest people honest, keeps criminals laughing

Wouldn’t that be more efficient and effective?

How would it be either?

Gangbangers don't worry about background checks

I’m not talking about gang bangers

I’m not talking about gang bangers

oh....

you want universal checks, except for gangbangers?

When are you people going to get in into your little minds, universal isn't going to work?

Nothing is going to work to stop gun violence but a better background check system will help prevent some to get weapons which will result in some prevented gun violence. Some is better than none. Agreed?

You can't show that.......we have current federally mandated background checks and criminals get around it easily, mass shooters pass it easily.

What you want is the government to do its job, and that doesn't take anything new....just pressing enter on the keyboard to submit the names of felons into the system.

 

[ph3iron]

you keep saying "military style" as if that means shit or can really be defined.

They've had the shit defined out of them. What it boils down to is a semi automatic rifle that will take large capacity removable magazines. It's not rocket science except to gun nuts at their most obtuse.

Yes...it is science.....magazine capacity has no bearing on deaths and injuries in mass public shootings....

Gilroy, rifle.....3.

From Mother Jones list of mass public shootings......

US mass shootings, 1982-2019: Data from Mother Jones’ investigation


Shotgun

Russian Polyteknic shooting....20
#13.......5 dead
#25.......3
#47.......12
#113...8

#103...revolver....8

These are shotguns and revolver mass public shootings.....it isn't the magazine...it is the gun free zone that allows a shooter to be unmolested when he is killing people, who isn't stopped until someone else points a gun at him.

Boy, the limits our
pantywaist will go for their guns.
Never been in an air raid shelter or hand to hand in their lives

 

[2aguy]

Got it.....looked at your wikipedia link....

Suicides......that is how you do it......

Suicides do not count....Japan, China, have extreme gun control and suicide rates that dwarf ours...as do many countries in Europe and many years Canada.......

You pulled the gun murder, gun suicide trick......

Gun murder is down 49% over the last 26 years as more Americans own and carry guns...sorry.....you have no case.

I agree that suicides are much different than murder.

But it remains a fact that states with more gun ownership have more gun-related death. More guns does not mean more murder, but more guns does in fact mean more death.

And again....suicides do not count. You can count them all day, which is where your number comes from, but countries with extreme gun control have higher suicide rates than we do.....

 

[XponentialChaos]

I wasn't trying to bait and switch here.

More guns = more gun-related death when comparing the numbers for each of the states. That's a fact. Can you address that fact or not?

 

[ph3iron]

[
But it remains a fact that states with more gun ownership have more gun-related death. More guns does not mean more murder, but more guns does in fact mean more death.

Except for the fact the number of guns has increased and the number of gun-related deaths has not.

We choose what we want.
Know the state with the most gun deaths?
Montana
Know the state with most guns?
Montana.
But omg it's going down???!!!
I feel better now.
Let's ignore NZ and Oz, bunch of pantywaists

 

[2aguy]

I wasn't trying to bait and switch here.

More guns = more gun-related death when comparing the numbers for each of the states. That's a fact. Can you address that fact or not?

Yes.....in some states there is more suicide.....Alaska for one, and that has nothing to do with guns.......guns are just the tool used..... if they didn't have guns, they would hang themselves...so guns are not relevant and suicide does not count to the gun murder number....the actual concern around guns and crime.

 

[XponentialChaos]

Got it.....looked at your wikipedia link....

Suicides......that is how you do it......

Suicides do not count....Japan, China, have extreme gun control and suicide rates that dwarf ours...as do many countries in Europe and many years Canada.......

You pulled the gun murder, gun suicide trick......

Gun murder is down 49% over the last 26 years as more Americans own and carry guns...sorry.....you have no case.

I agree that suicides are much different than murder.

But it remains a fact that states with more gun ownership have more gun-related death. More guns does not mean more murder, but more guns does in fact mean more death.

And again....suicides do not count. You can count them all day, which is where your number comes from, but countries with extreme gun control have higher suicide rates than we do.....

I don't think this correlation holds true for different countries. Each country has a different culture and different societal norms.

But there is a correlation here in the U.S, which does include suicide. Why do you think that is?

 

[2aguy]

[
But it remains a fact that states with more gun ownership have more gun-related death. More guns does not mean more murder, but more guns does in fact mean more death.

Except for the fact the number of guns has increased and the number of gun-related deaths has not.

We choose what we want.
Know the state with the most gun deaths?
Montana
Know the state with most guns?
Montana.
But omg it's going down???!!!
I feel better now.
Let's ignore NZ and Oz, bunch of pantywaists

Yes....suicide.....

New Zealand has more guns than Australia and less gun crime.....moron.

Australia banned guns, and now they have escalating gun crime...moron.

 

[2aguy]

Got it.....looked at your wikipedia link....

Suicides......that is how you do it......

Suicides do not count....Japan, China, have extreme gun control and suicide rates that dwarf ours...as do many countries in Europe and many years Canada.......

You pulled the gun murder, gun suicide trick......

Gun murder is down 49% over the last 26 years as more Americans own and carry guns...sorry.....you have no case.

I agree that suicides are much different than murder.

But it remains a fact that states with more gun ownership have more gun-related death. More guns does not mean more murder, but more guns does in fact mean more death.

And again....suicides do not count. You can count them all day, which is where your number comes from, but countries with extreme gun control have higher suicide rates than we do.....

I don't think this correlation holds true for different countries. Each country has a different culture and different societal norms.

But there is a correlation here in the U.S, which does include suicide. Why do you think that is?

Sorry, you are talking two different issues and trying to use the one to obscure the issue.

Gun murder...down 49%....that is the important number...if you want to talk mental health, that is a different issue.