Manufacturing Jobs Jumped by 54,000 in November! How About Those Tariffs?!

[Correll]

One would be tempted to call Trump a genius, except this is more a factor of the rest of society being drooling morons.

The only thing he has done at the genius level is convince his followers he is the reason these things are happening.

YOu cut my point about supply and demand. Why did you do that?


To ignore my point in favor of making a snarky quip?


My point stands. Trump looks like a freaking genius, but only because, the rest of society is acting like drooling morons.

 

[edward37]

Tariff delay in the cards Extend tariff delay

 

[edward37]

USMCA conference today DOW reverses downward flow

 

[Harpy Eagle]

YOu cut my point about supply and demand. Why did you do that?


To ignore my point in favor of making a snarky quip?


My point stands. Trump looks like a freaking genius, but only because, the rest of society is acting like drooling morons.

Yes, I will give you that. Trump looks like a freaking genius compared to you. He has you convinced he is the reason for the season.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

USMCA conference today DOW reverses downward flow

A ratified USMCA removes uncertainty, and the markets hate uncertainty

 

[Correll]

YOu cut my point about supply and demand. Why did you do that?


To ignore my point in favor of making a snarky quip?


My point stands. Trump looks like a freaking genius, but only because, the rest of society is acting like drooling morons.

Yes, I will give you that. Trump looks like a freaking genius compared to you. He has you convinced he is the reason for the season.

We as a society, have forgotten about the law of supply and demand, and are shocked when flooding the labor market with cheap labor, while exporting jobs to reduce demand,


results is wage stagnation, for the American worker.



ANd then we are shocked that changing that, leads to increasing wages.


This is a serious and honest point about wages for the American worker.


You have had your fun, and made a number of "jokes" at my expense.


Now please address the point.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

That the wages are rising, is a huge change.


IMO, the reason is the change of tone on trade and immigration.


Trade to increase demand, ie more manufacturing jobs.


Immigration to decrease supply of labor, increasing price, ie wages.


Supply and demand. Simple, yet effective. And something we forgot, a long time ago.


One would be tempted to call Trump a genius, except this is more a factor of the rest of society being drooling morons.

Is it really that huge of a change...or is that just a talking point?

View attachment 294116

I was pretty clear about the fact that I was discussing the lower end wages.


Posting an AVERAGE, that lumps a New York Lawyer in with a broom pusher in Allentown, is almost insulting.


Please try again.

So...lower end wages...seems even those have been going up for a while...

 

[edward37]

Most of job increase came from women entering work force Where will jobs in the future come from?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

We as a society, have forgotten about the law of supply and demand, and are shocked when flooding the labor market with cheap labor, while exporting jobs to reduce demand,


results is wage stagnation, for the American worker.



ANd then we are shocked that changing that, leads to increasing wages.


This is a serious and honest point about wages for the American worker.


You have had your fun, and made a number of "jokes" at my expense.


Now please address the point.

The flood of cheap labor has not decreased yet and the exporting of jobs is no different under Trump than before. The only thing that has changed is the current expansion has lasted long enough to create a labor shortage, which will always drive an increase in wages due to that good old supply and demand.

 

[edward37]

USMCA conference today DOW reverses downward flow

A ratified USMCA removes uncertainty, and the markets hate uncertainty

What really moved the futures was the bs about tariffs being delayed ,,I think Trump is playing us with this up down up down crap

 

[Correll]

We as a society, have forgotten about the law of supply and demand, and are shocked when flooding the labor market with cheap labor, while exporting jobs to reduce demand,


results is wage stagnation, for the American worker.



ANd then we are shocked that changing that, leads to increasing wages.


This is a serious and honest point about wages for the American worker.


You have had your fun, and made a number of "jokes" at my expense.


Now please address the point.

The flood of cheap labor has not decreased yet and the exporting of jobs is no different under Trump than before. The only thing that has changed is the current expansion has lasted long enough to create a labor shortage, which will always drive an increase in wages due to that good old supply and demand.

1. I've been hearing reports indicating that the flood of cheap labor, has been reduced. COmplaints from employers and that type of thing.

2. THe numbers on manufacturing employment is more than just the expansion continuing.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

We as a society, have forgotten about the law of supply and demand, and are shocked when flooding the labor market with cheap labor, while exporting jobs to reduce demand,


results is wage stagnation, for the American worker.



ANd then we are shocked that changing that, leads to increasing wages.


This is a serious and honest point about wages for the American worker.


You have had your fun, and made a number of "jokes" at my expense.


Now please address the point.

The flood of cheap labor has not decreased yet and the exporting of jobs is no different under Trump than before. The only thing that has changed is the current expansion has lasted long enough to create a labor shortage, which will always drive an increase in wages due to that good old supply and demand.

1. I've been hearing reports indicating that the flood of cheap labor, has been reduced. COmplaints from employers and that type of thing.

2. THe numbers on manufacturing employment is more than just the expansion continuing.

1. I am a data guy, not a story guy. Give me data.

2. Really...

 

[Correll]

We as a society, have forgotten about the law of supply and demand, and are shocked when flooding the labor market with cheap labor, while exporting jobs to reduce demand,


results is wage stagnation, for the American worker.



ANd then we are shocked that changing that, leads to increasing wages.


This is a serious and honest point about wages for the American worker.


You have had your fun, and made a number of "jokes" at my expense.


Now please address the point.

The flood of cheap labor has not decreased yet and the exporting of jobs is no different under Trump than before. The only thing that has changed is the current expansion has lasted long enough to create a labor shortage, which will always drive an increase in wages due to that good old supply and demand.

1. I've been hearing reports indicating that the flood of cheap labor, has been reduced. COmplaints from employers and that type of thing.

2. THe numbers on manufacturing employment is more than just the expansion continuing.

1. I am a data guy, not a story guy. Give me data.

2. Really...
View attachment 294126

1. A real "data guy" would know that it takes time to collect hard data. You hear stories first.


2. Yes, really. What do you think you just showed there?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

1. A real "data guy" would know that it takes time to collect hard data. You hear stories first.


2. Yes, really. What do you think you just showed there?

1. Stories do not help and most of the time bias against the real facts. Stores are individual and do not apply to the whole. I run up against this every day at work, "But Bob down the street said...".

2. That manufacturing jobs have been growing since 2011. It is not a new thing that you Trump caused to happen.

 

[NightFox]

According to the BLS jobs report for November, manufacturing jobs jumped by a whopping 54,000 last month, the biggest one-month increase since 1983!

That's only because the GM strikers went back to work. We are in a Manufacturing decline.

Hmmm... You don't say...

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Data extracted on: December 10, 2019 (9:23:03 AM)

Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

Series Id: CES3000000001
Seasonally Adjusted
Series Title: All employees, thousands, manufacturing, seasonally adjusted
Super Sector: Manufacturing
Industry: Manufacturing
NAICS Code: -
Data Type: ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 12561 12380 12208 12030 11862 11726 11668 11626 11591 11538 11509 11475
2010 11460 11453 11453 11489 11525 11545 11561 11553 11563 11562 11585 11595
2011 11621 11654 11675 11704 11713 11727 11746 11764 11769 11780 11770 11802
2012 11838 11860 11898 11916 11927 11936 11964 11960 11954 11961 11950 11960
2013 11983 11996 11999 12000 12000 12004 11984 12014 12032 12056 12079 12083
2014 12081 12106 12120 12134 12146 12170 12189 12208 12226 12259 12284 12292
2015 12295 12303 12311 12317 12334 12338 12357 12343 12350 12361 12357 12362
2016 12384 12369 12344 12351 12333 12353 12370 12347 12344 12341 12341 12355
2017 12368 12386 12395 12403 12405 12420 12417 12459 12467 12487 12517 12545
2018 12561 12592 12612 12634 12655 12687 12707 12715 12733 12762 12789 12809
2019 12826 12834 12831 12834 12836 12846 12850 12852 12854 12811(P) 12865(P)
P : preliminary

 

[Harpy Eagle]

According to the BLS jobs report for November, manufacturing jobs jumped by a whopping 54,000 last month, the biggest one-month increase since 1983!

That's only because the GM strikers went back to work. We are in a Manufacturing decline.

Hmmm... You don't say...

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Data extracted on: December 10, 2019 (9:23:03 AM)

Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

Series Id: CES3000000001
Seasonally Adjusted
Series Title: All employees, thousands, manufacturing, seasonally adjusted
Super Sector: Manufacturing
Industry: Manufacturing
NAICS Code: -
Data Type: ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 12561 12380 12208 12030 11862 11726 11668 11626 11591 11538 11509 11475
2010 11460 11453 11453 11489 11525 11545 11561 11553 11563 11562 11585 11595
2011 11621 11654 11675 11704 11713 11727 11746 11764 11769 11780 11770 11802
2012 11838 11860 11898 11916 11927 11936 11964 11960 11954 11961 11950 11960
2013 11983 11996 11999 12000 12000 12004 11984 12014 12032 12056 12079 12083
2014 12081 12106 12120 12134 12146 12170 12189 12208 12226 12259 12284 12292
2015 12295 12303 12311 12317 12334 12338 12357 12343 12350 12361 12357 12362
2016 12384 12369 12344 12351 12333 12353 12370 12347 12344 12341 12341 12355
2017 12368 12386 12395 12403 12405 12420 12417 12459 12467 12487 12517 12545
2018 12561 12592 12612 12634 12655 12687 12707 12715 12733 12762 12789 12809
2019 12826 12834 12831 12834 12836 12846 12850 12852 12854 12811(P) 12865(P)
P : preliminary

Output is down since the start of the year. Whether it is just a bump or a trend is too early to tell...

 

[Correll]

1. A real "data guy" would know that it takes time to collect hard data. You hear stories first.


2. Yes, really. What do you think you just showed there?

1. Stories do not help and most of the time bias against the real facts. Stores are individual and do not apply to the whole. I run up against this every day at work, "But Bob down the street said...".

2. That manufacturing jobs have been growing since 2011. It is not a new thing that you Trump caused to happen.

1. Link to data to support your claim that personal observations mostly are wrong. (see what I did there?)

2. But the recovery is old. Normally one would expect that inventories are full, contracts are drying up, companies have reached limits of expansion plans and are holding, ect. That not happening, is "new".

 

[Harpy Eagle]

1. A real "data guy" would know that it takes time to collect hard data. You hear stories first.


2. Yes, really. What do you think you just showed there?

1. Stories do not help and most of the time bias against the real facts. Stores are individual and do not apply to the whole. I run up against this every day at work, "But Bob down the street said...".

2. That manufacturing jobs have been growing since 2011. It is not a new thing that you Trump caused to happen.

1. Link to data to support your claim that personal observations mostly are wrong. (see what I did there?)

2. But the recovery is old. Normally one would expect that inventories are full, contracts are drying up, companies have reached limits of expansion plans and are holding, ect. That not happening, is "new".

1. Yes, I see what you did. You tried to cover up your lack of understanding of analytics by being cute...and you failed.

2. It might be happening, output is down for the year and hiring has basically leveled off. Too early to determine if it is a bump or a trend.

 

[NightFox]

According to the BLS jobs report for November, manufacturing jobs jumped by a whopping 54,000 last month, the biggest one-month increase since 1983!

That's only because the GM strikers went back to work. We are in a Manufacturing decline.

Hmmm... You don't say...

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Data extracted on: December 10, 2019 (9:23:03 AM)

Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

Series Id: CES3000000001
Seasonally Adjusted
Series Title: All employees, thousands, manufacturing, seasonally adjusted
Super Sector: Manufacturing
Industry: Manufacturing
NAICS Code: -
Data Type: ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 12561 12380 12208 12030 11862 11726 11668 11626 11591 11538 11509 11475
2010 11460 11453 11453 11489 11525 11545 11561 11553 11563 11562 11585 11595
2011 11621 11654 11675 11704 11713 11727 11746 11764 11769 11780 11770 11802
2012 11838 11860 11898 11916 11927 11936 11964 11960 11954 11961 11950 11960
2013 11983 11996 11999 12000 12000 12004 11984 12014 12032 12056 12079 12083
2014 12081 12106 12120 12134 12146 12170 12189 12208 12226 12259 12284 12292
2015 12295 12303 12311 12317 12334 12338 12357 12343 12350 12361 12357 12362
2016 12384 12369 12344 12351 12333 12353 12370 12347 12344 12341 12341 12355
2017 12368 12386 12395 12403 12405 12420 12417 12459 12467 12487 12517 12545
2018 12561 12592 12612 12634 12655 12687 12707 12715 12733 12762 12789 12809
2019 12826 12834 12831 12834 12836 12846 12850 12852 12854 12811(P) 12865(P)
P : preliminary

Output is down since the start of the year. Whether it is just a bump or a trend is too early to tell...

IMHO It's neither a bump nor a trend it's a reflection of uncertainty with respect to the prospects of how long the peak of this cycle can continue to be extended, it's a roll off of inventory (normal response to recession worries), that coupled with the effects off Donny's extended tit-for-tat "trade war" on manufacturing exports.

The TREND however (as the BLS data shows) is that manufacturing EMPLOYMENT is rising (over the last 9 years) which contradicts the claim made by Nazi Joe.

 

[bodecea]

According to the BLS jobs report for November, manufacturing jobs jumped by a whopping 54,000 last month, the biggest one-month increase since 1983!

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

As of July of this year, Trump's economy has buried Obama's economy in the number of new manufacturing jobs created. Forbes magazine:

In the last 30 months of President Obama’s term, manufacturing employment grew by 185,000 or 1.5%. In President Trump’s first 30 months, manufacturers added 499,000 jobs, expanding by 4.0%. (In Trump's First 30 Months, Manufacturing Up By 314,000 Jobs Over Obama; Which States Are Hot? see also https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41898.pdf)​

In fact, last year, 2018, the economy added 264,000 manufacturing jobs, the biggest one-year increase since 1988.

U.S. enjoys best manufacturing jobs growth of the last 30 years​

And keep in mind that during Obama's entire presidency, all 8 years, we had a net loss in manufacturing jobs. After Obama signed the 2015 compromise budget deal, which made most of the Bush tax cuts permanent and preserved about $700 billion in tax breaks, manufacturing jobs began to bounce back. But the jump in manufacturing jobs under Trump has been much greater than it was under Obama.

I guess this means that Trump's tariffs are not "devastating our manufacturing sector," hey? Does this mean that all the liberals who have posted threads that have pounced on the short, temporary drop in manufacturing jobs that we've seen in the last few months--will those liberals now admit that since Trump has been in office, we have seen a historic increase in manufacturing jobs?

Will the Democratic presidential candidates stop repeating the lie that Trump has not kept his promise to increase the number of manufacturing jobs? In spite of the slowdown in manufacturing jobs that we've seen over the last few months, there has still been a large overall increase in manufacturing jobs since Trump took office, and, again, last month we saw the biggest jump since 1983. It is misleading to cherry-pick the numbers just for the last few months and ignore the numbers for the 34 months that Trump has been in office.

DNC off on Trump, Wisconsin manufacturing jobs

Why all the homeless then?