On Friday, John Lott was at it again, taking aim at another gun control proposal.
This time the target was trigger locks, which, Lott argued, on the basis of crime statistics from the 15
states that have enacted laws requiring them, would have a very small benefit and significant costs in
terms of increased levels of violent crime.
Remember, a trigger-lock requirement is one of the principal provisions in the gun control legislation
Gov. Ridge is expected to sign into law later this week, and it has been much debated in Congress.
Lott, of course, has gone much further than bashing trigger locks. He was speaking at the American
Enterprise Institute in Washington as part of a two-day conference dealing with his earlier research
indicating that the only gun-related laws that reduce crime are those making it easier for citizens to carry
concealed weapons. His thesis is neatly summarized in the title of his 1998 book, More Guns, Less
Crime.
Lott hasn't won everyone over to his point of view. His views on gun control, as well as his adamant
conservative stances on other issues, have helped get him hounded out of Penn's Wharton School and the
University of Chicago in this decade. (Lott is currently teaching at Yale law school.)
Moreover, there are few people occupying the middle ground to whom a journalist can go in search of a
balanced appraisal. "Everyone is one side or the other," says Larry Sherman, the newly elected
president of the International Society of Criminologists and director of the Fels Center of Government at
Penn. Sherman, for his part, thinks Lott's large-scale, long-term study of crime trends doesn't take into
account smaller gun confiscation programs that have been followed by sharp declines in violent crime.
Lott says he is doing further research in this area, but that so far he has found no long-term effect from
strategies like gun confiscation.
But trying to sort out the academic arguments is almost a fool's errand. You can drown in disputes over
t-statistics, dummy variables and "Poisson" vs. "least squares" data analysis methods. Lott himself sums
up the current status of the dispute over his findings as follows:
"I have made all my data available to researchers at 42 universities," he says. "There have been three
studies that have come out that were critical of my book, but none of them have disagreed with my basic
finding that concealed carry laws reduce crime and have no costs" in terms of increasing gun violence.
He specifically invited his critics to the conference in Washington, and while some attended and
presented papers, Lott believes that his findings remained unscathed.
The one thing Lott's opponents cannot do is accuse him of being a gun nut. He is not now, nor has he ever
been, a member of the National Rifle Association. Before more or less stumbling into gun control
research in 1993, he had never owned a gun, and his two sons were not allowed to play with toy guns -
even squirt guns - at the Lotts' home in Swarthmore, where he and his family still live. (He has since
bought a small handgun.)
Lott's findings and arguments have undoubtedly had an important, if difficult to quantify, effect on
political debates over gun control. When the Brady Bill, with its requirements for background checks
and waiting periods, was passed in 1993, it seemed that the dam had broken. Many observers predicted
a flood of additional controls on gun ownership, but no such flood has occurred. The latest attempt at
federal gun control legislation was defeated by a large bipartisan majority in the House.
Lott himself says he has "no idea" what effect his research may be having on the gun control debate, but
there is no question that his findings have been widely read. The book has become the University of
Chicago's all-time best-seller for a volume about academic research. The scholarly paper on which it is
based was downloaded from the University of Chicago Web site a stunning 45,000 times.
State Rep. Dwight Evans, a gun control advocate, says that when he tried to argue that the recent murder
of Daily News columnist Russell Byers underlined the need for gun control, many legislators responded
that if Byers had been carrying a gun he might be alive today, which is in essence Lott's argument.
(Byers himself never took a public stance on gun control.)
I, for the record, have often been inclined to come out for some gun restrictions, but I've never been able
to find a way past John Lott's evidence.