A review of claims made by the
Cato Institute's Patrick Michaels over the last quarter century shows that he has repeatedly been proven wrong over time. Michaels is one of a few contrarian climate scientists who is often featured in the media
without disclosure of his funding from the fossil fuel industry.
Patrick Michaels Cato s Climate Expert Has History Of Getting It Wrong
Patrick Michaels' Losing Bets
On Temperature Trends
Michaels "Bet" In 1999 There Would Be A "Statistically Significant Cooling Trend" From 1998 To 2008. In a Cato post that was later published as a
Washington Times op-ed, according to Nexis, Patrick J. Michaels wrote that he would place a "bet" that "the 10 years ending on December 31, 2007, will show a statistically significant global cooling trend in temperatures measured by satellite":
I'm willing to wager two things. First, I'll bet that anyone who said global warming is an overblown bunch of hooey had a terrible time at this year's holiday cocktail parties. Second, I'll take even money that the 10 years ending on December 31, 2007, will show a statistically significant global cooling trend in temperatures measured by satellite.
[...]
Last year was so warm that it induces a statistically significant warming trend in the satellite data. Thus the second bet: Starting with 1998, there will almost certainly be a statistically significant cooling trend in the decade ending in 2007. [Cato,
1/18/99]
Satellite Records For That Decade Showed No Statistically Significant Trend. From 1998 to 2008, the University of Alabama in Huntsville satellite record shows a warming trend that is not statistically significant at the 95 percent level (a warming of 0.074°C per decade plus or minus 0.439°C). The Remote Sensing Systems satellite record shows a cooling trend that is not statistically significant at the 95 percent level (a change in temperature of -0.053°C per decade plus or minus 0.425 °C). The three surface temperature records showed a "warming trend" for that time period according to a Skeptical Science report on a 2008 paper by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. [Calculated using Skeptical Science's Temperature trend calculator,
7/1/13] [Skeptical Science,
1/10/13]
Michaels' New Bet: "We Are Going To Go Nearly A Quarter Of A Century Without Warming." In a
Washington Times op-ed in January 2013, Michaels stated "it's a pretty good bet that we are going to go nearly a quarter of a century without warming." [
The Washington Times,
1/17/13]