Live by the Polls, Die by the Polls

[Dante]

And you think this super obscure polling source is correct? Why arent you posting the polls from "real clear politics"? Are they THAT bad for Biden now?

You never were too bright.

Do you grasp the differences between polls and any analysis of polls?

 

[Dante]

Donald Trump Stung by Three Polls Released After Debate​

Sting Me 3 Times Baby

In the debate's aftermath the odds of Biden being the Democrats' 2024 presidential candidate rose by nearly 30 percent with one betting website, whilst the odds of Vice-President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 presidential election have fallen sharply with a number of bookies.

Ipsos surveyed 1,070 registered voters across the U.S. for Reuters on July 1 and 2, and found Biden and Trump were tied with 40 percent of the vote each. This is an improvement in Biden's performance over the last Ipsos/Reuters poll, which put Trump ahead on 41 percent against 39 percent for the incumbent. This survey of 930 registered voters was conducted on June 12.

Notably this survey also found former first lady Michelle Obama would decisively defeat Trump with 50 percent of the vote against 39 percent for the former president, though she has already ruled out running and endorsed Biden.

 

[Dante]

Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey. Overall, 74 percent of voters view Mr. Biden as too old for the job, an uptick since the debate.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Dante]

The Debate Hurt Biden, but the Real Shift Has Been Happening for Years

A 3-point move toward Trump in a new Times/Siena poll is not a fundamental change in the race, but it adds to longstanding concerns.

www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Conversations and insights about the moment.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Dante]

Horse race poll. Still pretty far out. Summer has only begun. Those who know, know.

 

[Godboy]

You never were too bright.

Do you grasp the differences between polls and any analysis of polls?

Any analysis that doesnt come to the conclusion that Biden is going to lose is fucking retarded, and youre retarded for posting it.

 

[Dante]

Any analysis that doesnt come to the conclusion that Biden is going to lose is fucking retarded, and youre retarded for posting it.

Okay trollboie

 

[Dante]

More of the Horse Race beginning of summer 2024:


The New York Times and Siena College poll showed Trump, a Republican, building a 6 percentage point lead - 49% to 43% - over Biden, a Democrat, among registered voters that the Times considered likely to cast ballots in the Nov. 5 election.

The Wall Street Journal poll showed Trump with a 6 point lead over Biden, compared to a 2 point lead in a survey that the Journal carried out in February.

In both polls, which were conducted nationwide, respondents noted that Biden's age, 81, was weighing on his appeal. Some 80% of respondents in the Journal poll, which surveyed 1,500 registered voters from June 29 through July 2, said Biden was too old to seek a second term. That poll had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

In both polls, which were conducted nationwide, respondents noted that Biden's age, 81, was weighing on his appeal. Some 80% of respondents in the Journal poll, which surveyed 1,500 registered voters from June 29 through July 2, said Biden was too old to seek a second term. That poll had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted July 1-2 found Trump and Biden tied among registered voters with 40% support each.

MSN

 

[Dante]

Here we are well into July. Getting close to where the presidential contest tightens up. Soon it's September and we'll be waiting for October surprises, if any.

But for now all we've had are the innocents and ill-informed ranting about polls. Not grasping what the polls actually are, what they do, who analyzes them and how, and who actually does the polls and is respected, trusted and valued.


and now...
"After months of brutal 2024 polls, President Biden has some cause for optimism."

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/09/biden-trump-2024-polls-post-conviction-lead

July 2024

4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes​

4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes

This soon after the debate, with relatively little robust polling, there are early indications that President Joe Biden has lost ground, but it's hard to say much more.

abcnews.go.com

Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate​

Polls move a lot in the fall, and the fundamentals are still good for Biden.

Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate

Why 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model is still a toss-up after the debate.

abcnews.go.com

We'll say it again "Polls move a lot in the fall."​

 

[Dante]

Here we are well into July. Getting close to where the presidential contest tightens up. Soon it's September and we'll be waiting for October surprises, if any.

But for now all we've had are the innocents and ill-informed ranting about polls. Not grasping what the polls actually are, what they do, who analyzes them and how, and who actually does the polls and is respected, trusted and valued.


and now...
"After months of brutal 2024 polls, President Biden has some cause for optimism."

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/09/biden-trump-2024-polls-post-conviction-lead

Here we are on July 20, 2024 (6 hours ago)

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[justoffal]

Here we are well into July. Getting close to where the presidential contest tightens up. Soon it's September and we'll be waiting for October surprises, if any.

But for now all we've had are the innocents and ill-informed ranting about polls. Not grasping what the polls actually are, what they do, who analyzes them and how, and who actually does the polls and is respected, trusted and valued.


and now...
"After months of brutal 2024 polls, President Biden has some cause for optimism."

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/09/biden-trump-2024-polls-post-conviction-lead

Polls are like video games for addicted adults. They seem to have grown much less reliable in the last 10 years. Maybe the sampling techniques need to be changed? I don't see any major shift in the national mood compared to the last election.
All of the distractions like the debate or the assassination attempt take up our attention for the moment.... But honestly those aren't the kinds of things that actually change a vote.

 

[Dante]

Polls are like video games for addicted adults. They seem to have grown much less reliable in the last 10 years. Maybe the sampling techniques need to be changed? I don't see any major shift in the national mood compared to the last election.
All of the distractions like the debate or the assassination attempt take up our attention for the moment.... But honestly those aren't the kinds of things that actually change a vote.

Unlike some people, I don't see polls as being less reliable. I go with the analysis of polls. I like seeing the methodology of polling firms. Then there are polls conducted by campaigns and others.

If polls are so unreliable? Smart money wouldn't be there.

 

[Dante]

I don't see any major shift in the national mood compared to the last election.
All of the distractions like the debate or the assassination attempt take up our attention for the moment.... But honestly those aren't the kinds of things that actually change a vote.

b-i-n-g-o

 

[Dante]

"To be clear, this doesn't mean that Harris will run notably stronger than Biden, only that she could. Her post-debate polls against Trump relative to Biden have a great deal of variance, ranging from around 8 points worse to 4 points better than how Biden performed. Based on an average of 26 national polls conducted over the past month, Harris trailed Trump by 4.5 points nationally compared with a smaller 3-point deficit for Biden." - July 22, 2024,

What do the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup?

While Harris consistently polled worse than Biden did against Trump before the debate, she’s since fared the same or better in close to half of the post-debate polls.

abcnews.go.com

 

[Dante]

Incoming.........................................

.

.

Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds​

By Jason Lange
July 23, 2024

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/

 

[Dante]

July 24, 2024​

​

Donald Trump's Losing Election Poll for First Time in Over a Month​

MSN

Trump pollster is already warning his rattled team that Harris is going to jump ahead in the polls​

MSN

 

[Dante]

Here we are well into July. Getting close to where the presidential contest tightens up. Soon it's September and we'll be waiting for October surprises, if any.

But for now all we've had are the innocents and ill-informed ranting about polls. Not grasping what the polls actually are, what they do, who analyzes them and how, and who actually does the polls and is respected, trusted and valued.


and now...
"After months of brutal 2024 polls, President Biden has some cause for optimism."

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/09/biden-trump-2024-polls-post-conviction-lead

Harris and Trump are tied, poll finds. Here's why strategists say that's good for Democrats

Roughly three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Vice President Kamala Harris should be nominated for the top of their ticket in November, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.

www.pbs.org

July 24, 2024: Harris and Trump are tied, poll finds. Here’s why strategists say that’s good for Democrats​

Breaking

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Latest Surveys Show A Virtual Tie After Biden Drops Out​

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Latest Surveys Show A Virtual Tie After Biden Drops Out

Harris is all but certain to replace President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket after the majority of delegates have said they’ll support her.

www.forbes.com

United States | The numbers game

Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Here’s what the polls say​

How the Democrats’ likely candidate changes the race​

Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Here’s what the polls say

How the Democrats’ likely candidate changes the race

www.economist.com

What polls say about a Trump-Harris matchup​

Now that President Biden is out of the 2024 race, what do the numbers say about a Trump-Harris matchup? CBS News executive director of elections and surveys Anthony Salvanto looks at the latest polling. Then, Molly Ball, senior political correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, and Sabrina Rodriguez, national politics reporter for The Washington Post, join with analysis.

 

[Dante]

a previous post rewritten:

National polls are not totally useless. But the way people view them is. As you should know, this far out they are about what is commonly referred to as the horse race.

The popular vote?

Are people ignoring exit polling?

In many states, issues are put on the ballot in order to drive people to the polls. The GOP has done it for all of my lifetime, in particular states. The issues were usually god, gays, or guns, or any combination of. The ballot shit was not really ever about winning on an issue. It was almost always about driving particular voters to the polls.

Now it's about MAGA and Victimhood and Trump and Victimhood and...

Just a few days after becoming the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied with her Republican rival, Donald Trump, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll.

The survey, which was conducted after President Biden announced that he was stepping aside, also showed that 70 percent of Democratic voters said they wanted the party to speedily consolidate behind her rather than engage in a more competitive and drawn-out process. Just 14 percent said they would prefer another candidate.

Overall, Trump leads Harris 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters nationwide. That’s roughly the same position Biden was in before his disastrous debate performance in June, but it’s a major improvement for Democrats from the past month. Biden trailed Trump by six percentage points in our last poll.

To be clear, the survey is simply a snapshot of the race at this tumultuous moment: Trump’s favorable ratings surged to the highest point in a Times poll after a man tried to assassinate him, and Harris is riding the momentum of a newly energized base. That all could change before November.

Harris Narrows Gap Against Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

In a survey taken after President Biden stepped aside, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race separated by a single percentage point among likely voters.

www.nytimes.com

Harris Narrowed Trump’s Lead in Polls

Also, wildfires roar through western Canada. Here’s the latest at the end of Thursday.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Dante]

ready to take a break for a week, bu before we give it a rest...

 

[Dante]

July 25, 2024

A Lot of Major Shifts Beneath the Surface in a New Trump-Harris Poll

The changes among groups cancel out for now, and Trump leads narrowly, but there’s a tie when candidates like Kennedy Jr. are considered.

www.nytimes.com