Kamala Honeymoon Over: Nate Silver's New Electoral College Model Is Bad News for Harris

[Billiejeens]

Is the honeymoon over for Kamala Harris? Given the media’s unending drooling over her candidacy, there should have been a major poll bump. Instead, Donald J. Trump has retaken the lead in the Electoral College probability model run by Nate Silver. Biden was running away with it by this point in the 2020 election.









Political Polls

@PpollingNumbers

#New Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

Trump 52% (Chance)

Harris 47%




1:09 PM · Aug 29, 2024
·

Kamala Honeymoon Over: Nate Silver's New Electoral College Model Is Bad News for Harris

townhall.com

BJ-
Polling not looking good for Harris.

Her handlers do have one thing going for them that the Republicans didn't have in 2016.
They have figured out that President Trump's policies are very popular.
I have always said that any other professional politician could have co-opted candidate Trump's positions in 2016 and won.
Harris has moved her positions to mimic President Trump's.

That disaster of an interview though - wow.

 

[pknopp]

I just did a quick glance but what am I missing? They have Harris at 272 electoral votes. That would mean she wins.

 

[Billiejeens]

I just did a quick glance but what am I missing? They have Harris at 272 electoral votes. That would mean she wins.

Electoral college probability

 

[Billiejeens]

Geiger Capital

@Geiger_Capital

Just like that…Trump is now back to being the favorite in Nate Silver’s election model.

Trump - 52%

Harris - 47%Harris is favored in the popular vote but an electoral college underdog. It’s largely due to Pennsylvania (where she passed on Josh Shapiro for VP).

 

[TNHarley]

They have trump winning while also giving Comma la more electoral votes? lolz
This is from his actual site.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

This stuck out more than anything.
There’s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.
So does that mean there is a 83% chance she wins the EC?
It also still has her at +4% Nationally, and winning every swing state.

 

[pknopp]

Electoral college probability

They are giving her 272 electoral votes. You do understand what that means, right?

It almost seems to me that since Silver was embarrassed in 2016 with his polling he is going all out to cover his bases no matter who wins this time.

 

[TNHarley]

They are giving her 272 electoral votes. You do understand what that means, right?

It almost seems to me that since Silver was embarrassed in 2016 with his polling he is going all out to cover his bases no matter who wins this time.

Thats kind of what I was just thinking. He is so vague right now. Used to not be that way..

 

[Billiejeens]

Kamala Harris can’t seem to do it, and voters are quickly going to learn that she’s an unelectable candidate for various reasons, not least because she’s adopted Joe Biden’s disastrous agenda and flip-flopped on the hyper-left-wing platform that she touted during her short and disastrous 2020 run. At this point, some were joking that Harris would endorse Trump, as she’s stolen his ‘no tax on tips’ and border wall initiatives.

 

[Billiejeens]

The Trump vote is always underestimated, an issue pollsters have yet to remedy. A razor-thin race usually means the advantage is with Trump and the GOP in the Electoral College, which folks like Silver have been saying for a while now.

 

[pknopp]

Kamala Harris can’t seem to do it, and voters are quickly going to learn that she’s an unelectable candidate for various reasons, not least because she’s adopted Joe Biden’s disastrous agenda and flip-flopped on the hyper-left-wing platform that she touted during her short and disastrous 2020 run. At this point, some were joking that Harris would endorse Trump, as she’s stolen his ‘no tax on tips’ and border wall initiatives.

Ron Paul's Vegas pitch: No taxes on tips

Ron Paul's Vegas pitch: No taxes on tips

www.latimes.com

 

[Crepitus]

Is the honeymoon over for Kamala Harris? Given the media’s unending drooling over her candidacy, there should have been a major poll bump. Instead, Donald J. Trump has retaken the lead in the Electoral College probability model run by Nate Silver. Biden was running away with it by this point in the 2020 election.




Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers

#New Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

Trump 52% (Chance)

Harris 47%


1:09 PM · Aug 29, 2024
·

Kamala Honeymoon Over: Nate Silver's New Electoral College Model Is Bad News for Harris

townhall.com

BJ-
Polling not looking good for Harris.

Her handlers do have one thing going for them that the Republicans didn't have in 2016.
They have figured out that President Trump's policies are very popular.
I have always said that any other professional politician could have co-opted candidate Trump's positions in 2016 and won.
Harris has moved her positions to mimic President Trump's.

That disaster of an interview though - wow.

Why can this not be found anywhere but twitter? Every link you posted is a twitter post.

All the polls available out here in the real world give Harris the victory.

 

[candycorn]

Fail to see the bad news.... Silver is more certain that Trump tops out at 265.9.

That ain’t gonna get it done for the blob.

Silver has been wrong before.

 

[candycorn]

Is the honeymoon over for Kamala Harris? Given the media’s unending drooling over her candidacy, there should have been a major poll bump. Instead, Donald J. Trump has retaken the lead in the Electoral College probability model run by Nate Silver. Biden was running away with it by this point in the 2020 election.




Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers

#New Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

Trump 52% (Chance)

Harris 47%


1:09 PM · Aug 29, 2024
·

Kamala Honeymoon Over: Nate Silver's New Electoral College Model Is Bad News for Harris

townhall.com

BJ-
Polling not looking good for Harris.

Her handlers do have one thing going for them that the Republicans didn't have in 2016.
They have figured out that President Trump's policies are very popular.
I have always said that any other professional politician could have co-opted candidate Trump's positions in 2016 and won.
Harris has moved her positions to mimic President Trump's.

That disaster of an interview though - wow.

 

[Dragonlady]

Is the honeymoon over for Kamala Harris? Given the media’s unending drooling over her candidacy, there should have been a major poll bump. Instead, Donald J. Trump has retaken the lead in the Electoral College probability model run by Nate Silver. Biden was running away with it by this point in the 2020 election.




Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers

#New Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

Trump 52% (Chance)

Harris 47%


1:09 PM · Aug 29, 2024
·

Kamala Honeymoon Over: Nate Silver's New Electoral College Model Is Bad News for Harris

townhall.com

BJ-
Polling not looking good for Harris.

Her handlers do have one thing going for them that the Republicans didn't have in 2016.
They have figured out that President Trump's policies are very popular.
I have always said that any other professional politician could have co-opted candidate Trump's positions in 2016 and won.
Harris has moved her positions to mimic President Trump's.

That disaster of an interview though - wow.

"Handlers"???? Don't you mean "campaign staff"? You idiots keep promoting the idea that the Democrats who are running the government are being "handled" by their staffers and aren't really in charge.

For four years we read about how Trump's staff tried and failed to "handle" him, to keep his "worst impulses" in check - like bringing in the Army to shoot protestors. The DOJ threatened to resign en masse if he fired the Special Prosecutor. Democrats don't need "handling".

The Democrats aren't running a functionallly incompetent convicted felon as their candidate. Their candidates aren't making fools of themselves on a regular basis, or committing felonies, or war crimes, so that staff has to "clean up" their messes on a daily basis.

Trump killed a half million Americans before he lost the election. Trump's policies were SO UNPOPULAR, that he lost the last election by 7 million votes. That in addition to the millions of dollars in damage from unchecked racial violence, and court settllements in the tens of millions of dollars in favour of McCabe, Strozc, and Lisa Page, among others. Then there's the settlement for separated families.

Harris hasn't "moved" her positions at all. She's changed some of her responses to problems - like fracking, but not her position on the problem - climate change.

Trump is now promising to pay for IVF treatments, or have insurance companies pay for it.
At least he's now saying the quiet part out loud: Americans need white babies to slow the growth of non-white minorities.

That's what all of this talk is about. MORE WHITE BABIES being born to prevent racial minorities from taking over!!!! Vladimir Putin is also asking women to have more babies. All of the dictators are pushing women to have babies so that they can "preserve their culture. Putin, Orban, Xi.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-urges-russians-have-more-kids-says-ethnic-survival-stake-2024-02-15/

Putin asks Russian women to have ‘eight or more’ children amid deaths in his war

Russian president says women having large families is ‘our goal for the coming decades’

www.independent.co.uk

Viktor Orbán: no tax for Hungarian women with four or more children

Growing families better than letting Muslim immigrants in, says prime minister

www.theguardian.com

Hungary tries for baby boom with tax breaks and loan forgiveness

Prime Minister Victor Orban wants more babies to be born to avoid the need for immigration.

www.bbc.com

Chinese women are fed up with Xi Jinping's attempts to make them have more and more kids

As China faces a demographic collapse, women are challenging governmental pressure to have more children, according to The Wall Street Journal.

www.businessinsider.com

Xi vs. She: China’s government wants women to return to domesticity, but it’s already too late

“Every woman my age in China has a story to tell,” our friend Eunice Ng says. When she was 9, Eunice’s mother went away for what her family said was “medical treatment.” She didn’t think much of it at the time – nothing was unusual, except that the top floor of their home was always locked.

www.hrw.org

 

[jbrownson0831]

The Trump vote is always underestimated, an issue pollsters have yet to remedy. A razor-thin race usually means the advantage is with Trump and the GOP in the Electoral College, which folks like Silver have been saying for a while now.

312 to 226, she won't win.

 

[Billiejeens]

 

[Independent thinker]

Is the honeymoon over for Kamala Harris? Given the media’s unending drooling over her candidacy, there should have been a major poll bump. Instead, Donald J. Trump has retaken the lead in the Electoral College probability model run by Nate Silver. Biden was running away with it by this point in the 2020 election.




Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers

#New Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

Trump 52% (Chance)

Harris 47%


1:09 PM · Aug 29, 2024
·

Kamala Honeymoon Over: Nate Silver's New Electoral College Model Is Bad News for Harris

townhall.com

BJ-
Polling not looking good for Harris.

Her handlers do have one thing going for them that the Republicans didn't have in 2016.
They have figured out that President Trump's policies are very popular.
I have always said that any other professional politician could have co-opted candidate Trump's positions in 2016 and won.
Harris has moved her positions to mimic President Trump's.

That disaster of an interview though - wow.

It is a close race and we are going to lose if we don't man up and admit it.