Junk Science Week: Climate models fail reality test

[Oddball]

The little Freudian slip by Dean indicates that radical lefties admit the global warming agenda is supported and funded (only) by democrats.

Oh, how sweet. A chance to "teach". A "teaching moment".

When Republicans believe something and the entire rest of the world believes something else, it's probably not the entire rest of the world that is "radical".

Did that help?

Except that the "entire rest of the world" doesn't believe in anthropogenic Goebbels warming.

Did that help?

 

[Synthaholic]

 

[Big Fitz]

Really? Pathetic.

 

[westwall]

How apropriate, we present a scientific study and like most of AGW supporters you present a cartoon. Cartoons are about the level of your science so well done!

 

[Oddball]

How apropriate, we present a scientific study and like most of AGW supporters you present a cartoon. Cartoons are about the level of your science so well done!

Synthia is a cartoon.

 

[daveman]

Why don't we see any "Republican" computer models or Republican "science"?

Just kidding.​

​

Can't you stop lying for two minutes in a row?

You know those evil rich conservatives the Koch brothers?

David H. Koch Charitable Foundation and Personal Philanthropy

A long-time philanthropist, David H. Koch has given generously to a variety of organizations and causes for nearly three decades. Since 2000, he and the David H. Koch Charitable Foundation have pledged or contributed more than $750 million to further cancer research, enhance medical centers, support educational institutions, sustain arts and cultural institutions, and conduct public policy studies.​

Koch Family Foundations and Philanthropy - Fred and Mary Koch Foundation

Fred and Mary Koch Foundation grants are awarded primarily to charitable organizations as defined in section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. The foundation focuses its giving in the following areas:

Arts/Arts Education: Artistic endeavors and educational ventures that stimulate interest in the performing and visual arts.
Environmental Stewardship: Science-based environmental education and market-based efforts to improve the environment.
Human Services: Programs and organizations that promote dignity and respect to propel others toward success.
Enablement of At-Risk Youth: Mentoring and education programs that advance a culture of individual freedom, responsibility and Principled Entrepreneurship™.
Education: Scholarships to qualified students with strong academic records and demonstrated leadership ability.​

Koch Family Foundations and Philanthropy - Koch Cultural Trust

The program has provided steady support for artists at varying stages of their careers. Under the guidance of trustee Liz Koch, who is also president of the Fred and Mary Koch Foundation, Koch Cultural Trust has awarded nearly $1.8 million in grants to outstanding programs and artists – singers, painters, sculptors, dancers and instrumentalists – with roots in Kansas.​

I'd tell you to start thinking for yourself, but you're simply not capable.

Moron.

 

[daveman]

The little Freudian slip by Dean indicates that radical lefties admit the global warming agenda is supported and funded (only) by democrats.

Oh, how sweet. A chance to "teach". A "teaching moment".

When Republicans believe something and the entire rest of the world believes something else, it's probably not the entire rest of the world that is "radical".

Did that help?

The entire rest of the world is not gullible moonbats like you.

 

[daveman]

You need to stop letting cartoonists do your thinking for you.

 

[IanC]

I like cartoons. a picture says a thousand words and all that....

 

[flacaltenn]

Those hurricane trackers are actually pretty good up to 48 hours. But they are fed good quality fresh data. In the climate model case.. When your model is built on ASSUMPTION that CO2 is the principal driver of the warming, guess what the outcome is gonna be??

The climate sensitivities, CO2 forcing numbers, feedback effects -- all based on fudged data. So the poor models are truth challenged from the get-go...

Back to the OP --- After seeing how the surface temp data has been jacked over and over again, I can't imagine that models mean ANYTHING for a particular regional station. The famous case of the IPCC graph for Darwin, Aus. shows over 2degC of abitrary jacking to make a favorable IPCC graph. We're talking about HUGE increases in "calibration" over 15 years that is not documented well at all. When in reality, all that surface data should have been adjusted down for increases in "urban heating" and other human density effects. So how can the models predict REGIONAL effects? Only if the jacking continues into the future..

Does your nightly weather station report the JACKED USHCN corrected high temp? Or just what they read on their thermometer? OMG -- THere's a DIFF???? Yup.. Think I'll start selling "Hansen corrected" weather stations for the backyard...

J Curry has had lots of columns and articles over the last year talking about how the models should be measured for accuracy but they are usually pretty dry and the stats are boring so they never get traction with the public. it really is just a shell game that gets props from the media even though random guessing would be more often be correct.

It seems to me that one of the stupidest things you can do is AVERAGE the model's predictions. That would be like taking a 911 operator pitting them against Siri and taking the advice somewhere in the middle...

 

[IanC]

Those hurricane trackers are actually pretty good up to 48 hours. But they are fed good quality fresh data. In the climate model case.. When your model is built on ASSUMPTION that CO2 is the principal driver of the warming, guess what the outcome is gonna be??

The climate sensitivities, CO2 forcing numbers, feedback effects -- all based on fudged data. So the poor models are truth challenged from the get-go...

Back to the OP --- After seeing how the surface temp data has been jacked over and over again, I can't imagine that models mean ANYTHING for a particular regional station. The famous case of the IPCC graph for Darwin, Aus. shows over 2degC of abitrary jacking to make a favorable IPCC graph. We're talking about HUGE increases in "calibration" over 15 years that is not documented well at all. When in reality, all that surface data should have been adjusted down for increases in "urban heating" and other human density effects. So how can the models predict REGIONAL effects? Only if the jacking continues into the future..

Does your nightly weather station report the JACKED USHCN corrected high temp? Or just what they read on their thermometer? OMG -- THere's a DIFF???? Yup.. Think I'll start selling "Hansen corrected" weather stations for the backyard...

J Curry has had lots of columns and articles over the last year talking about how the models should be measured for accuracy but they are usually pretty dry and the stats are boring so they never get traction with the public. it really is just a shell game that gets props from the media even though random guessing would be more often be correct.

It seems to me that one of the stupidest things you can do is AVERAGE the model's predictions. That would be like taking a 911 operator pitting them against Siri and taking the advice somewhere in the middle...

you are correct. unfortunately people look at the average and ignore the massive uncertainty. even in such things as the spagetti graph temperature reconstructions, people cant actually understand what it is saying so they take the easy way out and believe what the author says it says, instead of wondering which proxy is more likely accurate or why the results seem to be all over the place, and able to support just about any conclusion.

 

[code1211]

Why don't we see any "Republican" computer models or Republican "science"?

Just kidding.​

​

You see them all the time. They are useful and incorporated into the designs of things that people actually use.

 

[flacaltenn]

Why don't we see any "Republican" computer models or Republican "science"?

Just kidding.​

​

You see them all the time. They are useful and incorporated into the designs of things that people actually use.

And here is an example... Heidi Montag -- Conservative Model of the Day...