Jolly Wins! ObamaCare Loses!

[The Rabbi]

Yes, but you just lied out your ass.

That district votes for REPUBLICANS.

Young held that seat before he died, he just won FL-13 by +15 in 2012.

Obama did win this CD in 2012, by less than one point. But you don't compare presidential results to congressional results, you compare congressional results to congressional results.

Care to try again, or do you just wanna hack away?

Speaking of lying out of your ass.
The district voted for A REPUBLICAN. The guy who died was in power from the Nixon years. That was the Republican they voted for.
They voted for Sink in the last gubernatorial election.
They voted for Obama in the last 2presidential elections.

Do you have an honest bone in your body? Is there no shame?

So, fuckwad, again, you don't compare presidential election results per CD to congressional election results. You don't compare gubernatorial election results per CD to congressional election results. You compare CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS per CD to CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS in the same CD or corresponding area (due to redistricting). That's what the adults in the room do.

The other stuff is cosmetic and sometimes fun to compare, but has no real bearing on a local election, and a CD election IS a local election.

And Young stayed in office long after Nixon. Bet yer gonna go around saying that Nixon wasn't a Republican either.

Yepp, yer just as much a dick as I thought you were. No way you are a Rabbi, Rabbis don't act this way. That's the friendly way of saying **** you to you.

You lie and it's my fault.
There was one Republican who got elected over and over. That speaks to his personal popularity, not the leanings of the district. If you want to know how the district leans, look at other races. And in all those other races they voted Democrat.
Geez you are one stupid arrogant piece of shit, aren't you?

 

[The Rabbi]

Funny....Larry Sabato and other left leaning pundits picked the Democrat to win. A Democrat who outspent the Republican by a 3-1 margin. A Democrat who was well known in the State versus a nobody. But yeah...the election means nothing.

But you will notice, I didn't. In fact, in January, I was already writing that it is advantage GOP in this election. The demographics of the district are simply more favorable to the GOP, especially at the state and local level.

You're lying. You wrote no such thing.
But why should anyone believe an anonymous poster over Larry Sabato, who's been writing about politics for years?

 

[The Rabbi]

But you will notice, I didn't. In fact, in January, I was already writing that it is advantage GOP in this election. The demographics of the district are simply more favorable to the GOP, especially at the state and local level.

Gotta question for you. How can you explain why that district in particular went for Obama in both elections? Would that make that a swing district? In this case, it swung toward the Republican candidate.

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

In the gubernatorial election the district voted for Sink.
Guess that shoots your explanation all to hell.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Funny....Larry Sabato and other left leaning pundits picked the Democrat to win. A Democrat who outspent the Republican by a 3-1 margin. A Democrat who was well known in the State versus a nobody. But yeah...the election means nothing.

But you will notice, I didn't. In fact, in January, I was already writing that it is advantage GOP in this election. The demographics of the district are simply more favorable to the GOP, especially at the state and local level.

You're lying. You wrote no such thing.
But why should anyone believe an anonymous poster over Larry Sabato, who's been writing about politics for years?

Oh, yes I did:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/344607-jolly-wins-obamacare-loses-4.html#post8760356


And you're just as much a pathetic dick now as you were three or four hours ago. Color me surprised.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Speaking of lying out of your ass.
The district voted for A REPUBLICAN. The guy who died was in power from the Nixon years. That was the Republican they voted for.
They voted for Sink in the last gubernatorial election.
They voted for Obama in the last 2presidential elections.

Do you have an honest bone in your body? Is there no shame?

So, fuckwad, again, you don't compare presidential election results per CD to congressional election results. You don't compare gubernatorial election results per CD to congressional election results. You compare CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS per CD to CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS in the same CD or corresponding area (due to redistricting). That's what the adults in the room do.

The other stuff is cosmetic and sometimes fun to compare, but has no real bearing on a local election, and a CD election IS a local election.

And Young stayed in office long after Nixon. Bet yer gonna go around saying that Nixon wasn't a Republican either.

Yepp, yer just as much a dick as I thought you were. No way you are a Rabbi, Rabbis don't act this way. That's the friendly way of saying **** you to you.

You lie and it's my fault.
There was one Republican who got elected over and over. That speaks to his personal popularity, not the leanings of the district. If you want to know how the district leans, look at other races. And in all those other races they voted Democrat.
Geez you are one stupid arrogant piece of shit, aren't you?

No, I am really quite versed in electoral stats, and you are a prick.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Gotta question for you. How can you explain why that district in particular went for Obama in both elections? Would that make that a swing district? In this case, it swung toward the Republican candidate.

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

In the gubernatorial election the district voted for Sink.
Guess that shoots your explanation all to hell.

You are making the same mistake that others have made. Proceed, Governor, proceed...

 

[TooTall]

Quite a victory.

A Republican seat for 40 years..stays Republican.

Pop the corks.

A district where Obama won in 2008 and 2012. Before the effects of Obamacare came along.

 

[The Rabbi]

So, fuckwad, again, you don't compare presidential election results per CD to congressional election results. You don't compare gubernatorial election results per CD to congressional election results. You compare CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS per CD to CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS in the same CD or corresponding area (due to redistricting). That's what the adults in the room do.

The other stuff is cosmetic and sometimes fun to compare, but has no real bearing on a local election, and a CD election IS a local election.

And Young stayed in office long after Nixon. Bet yer gonna go around saying that Nixon wasn't a Republican either.

Yepp, yer just as much a dick as I thought you were. No way you are a Rabbi, Rabbis don't act this way. That's the friendly way of saying **** you to you.

You lie and it's my fault.
There was one Republican who got elected over and over. That speaks to his personal popularity, not the leanings of the district. If you want to know how the district leans, look at other races. And in all those other races they voted Democrat.
Geez you are one stupid arrogant piece of shit, aren't you?

No, I am really quite versed in electoral stats, and you are a prick.

You hate it that I'm right, dont you?
The district went Democrat on almost every election, except when their long time rep was running. They even voted for Sink, so she wasnt an unknown there.
And yet rather than vote for the person they had voted for before, they went for someone no one had ever heard of. This despite massive spending by Sink and the Dems.
And you want to say it's no big deal.
Which one is the fool now?

 

[R.D.]

Sink is sunk....good!

 

[JakeStarkey]

Close election with a libertarian thrown in as a joker in the deck.

Strong indicator in the St Petersburg area the state is up for grabs.

 

[RandomVariable]

Wow, you guys got a problem! I just looked over the numbers, demographics, past election results, and such. Jolly won that by less than two percentage points? This is the Republican base if there is one, and you guys lost half of them? The last guy died, you get +5 points for that one alone. You know why you did so badly? Because old white people making a household income of ~$44k don't trust Republicans anymore. They are about the last group to get there but they're there now. You guys got serious problems.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Obama won it by less than 1% in 2012 and by less than 3% in 2008. That means "swing" CD in terms of presidential elections, which has absolutely nothing to do with congressional elections, esp. special elections to fill a vacancy.

Only in a state like Nebrasksa or Maine, where the electors (excepting two of them) are divvied up according to CD winner, a pres comparison to the congressional race comparision is pretty silly and is apples to oranges, which I have already explained two or three times on this thread.

I love how you're trying to downplay the importance of this election, Stat. You've become very dismissive of the results, continually trying to find that silver lining. There isn't one. The Democrat lost, in a district Obama himself won twice. It boils down to the fact that this district was leaning liberal in both of those elections, it swung conservative in a mid term year. It doesn't matter what level you're voting at, you have to measure voter tendency, not just raw numbers. Apple to apples, Stat.

No, I haven't, not one single bit. You Righties are trying to make one single special election far more predictive than it should be. I have seen this kind of thing play out many times over the last 30 years. You continue to deliberately misunderstand that a CD usually peforms differently for a prez election as opposed to a local election because, as I just explained to you, a different clientele usually shows up for local elections, especially specials like this one. Were this CD so DEM leaning, then Young would not have won here with +15 in 2012, incumbent or not.

Math trumps propaganda every single time.

You are trying to attach an emotional value to what I am writing, when in reality, I am totally dispassionate when it comes to election results. They are what the are, and they go into the congressional record.

And just for the record, I predicted this race for the GOP in the elections section way back in January, when practically no one else was even paying attention:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...re-was-an-election-last-night-in-fl-13-a.html

On that thread, I went into great detail, and I quote:

It's really not that competitive of a district. Republicans have held the seat here since 1983. But while this district went for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, it went for President Obama by 1 point in 2012. It is one of the few CDs to actually swing toward the Democrats in 2012. That still doesn't say much, for there is no real direct correlation between presidential and congressional politics at the district level. Nonetheless, it is interesting information. Pinellas County is a very affluent county in FL....

...In the last 3 congressional elections in the district, between 267,000 and 368,000 voters have cast votes. That is a pretty amazing disparity. In 2012, 329,000 cast votes. It will be interesting to see what turnout is for a "place-holder" election.

No polling that I know of to date. But the electoral history of this District indicates:

Advantage GOP.

So, you were saying, again...

You claim to be dispassionate, then take a cheap shot at Pinellas County for being "affluent." I've noticed that liberals have to insert their class warfare notions into supposedly unbiased and dispassionate statistical analyses. No, I am attaching emotional value to your analyses simply because you have done so yourself. That little statement revealed your sentiment about the entire election even then. I key in on emotion, Stat. Now, as you did then, you tried to downplay the significance of this election with raw data and electoral history.

Alex Sink squandered a colossal advantage over David Jolly. She outspent him 2 to 1, was leading by 9 points in February per polling, only to lose by 2 points in the election. That's an 11 point swing, and a monumental failure on her campaign's part.

The population (per the census) of Pinellas county is 921,319 people. There are 616,830 registered voters in Pinellas County. 219,858 are Republican per that elections office, 225,342 are Democrats, with 171,630 of them belonging to various parties. According to the the results, 40.01% of these registered voters turned out to vote yesterday. It is a purple district for all intents and purposes, voter tendencies tend to swing with the political climate. Had Obamacare not been an issue with the voters, Sink would have scored a major upset in that district and continued a trend set with the election of Obama twice before. It's not the person, it's the party, my friend.

 

[AceRothstein]

Gotta question for you. How can you explain why that district in particular went for Obama in both elections? Would that make that a swing district? In this case, it swung toward the Republican candidate.

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

In the gubernatorial election the district voted for Sink.
Guess that shoots your explanation all to hell.

What terrible logic. That's like saying Minnesota is a purple state in presidential elections because they've had Republican governors half of the time over the last 30 years when they've never voted for a Republican president over the same time period. You can't compare congressional district elections to statewide elections to national elections and expect consistent results.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Wow, you guys got a problem! I just looked over the numbers, demographics, past election results, and such. Jolly won that by less than two percentage points? This is the Republican base if there is one, and you guys lost half of them? The last guy died, you get +5 points for that one alone. You know why you did so badly? Because old white people making a household income of ~$44k don't trust Republicans anymore. They are about the last group to get there but they're there now. You guys got serious problems.

The butthurt is strong with this one.

Alex Sink had a 9 point lead at the beginning of February. She lost by 2 in the election. Democrats have the real problems here, if one of your candidates drops a total of 11 points in less than a month and a half. Fail in campaign strategy there.

 

[TooTall]

I am quite sure the Republican did NOT cheat, he won fair and square in a free and open election in a CD that is decidely more favorable to Repbublicans on a local level. After 40 years of a GOP rep here, it was unlikely that any DEM was going to unseat the GOP here.

Not saying you are but what you posted is exactly what I would expect from the loser licking their wounds. I thought for sure that the woman would win just for that reason. For Jolly to have won it has to be a referendum on Obamacare. Obama won there is no reason to think that a democrat couldn't win a seat held by the same man over all those years.

I didn't. I was already expecting a GOP win in January. Nice try, you really don't know me well enough to know whether I am in loser mode or winner mode.

I am actually in dispassionate mode.

You contradict yourself just a bit in this thread.

Post 98

Obama won it by less than 1% in 2012 and by less than 3% in 2008. That means "swing" CD in terms of presidential elections, which has absolutely nothing to do with congressional elections, esp. special elections to fill a vacancy.

Post 113

But while this district went for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, it went for President Obama by 1 point in 2012.

 

[TemplarKormac]

But let me just point something out here... Jolly was a lobbyist for a firm which admitted to committing Medicare fraud. If you can't run a candidate that can beat someone so sleazy as that, then there's no hope for you in November. None.

 

[Edgetho]

Speaking of lying out of your ass.
The district voted for A REPUBLICAN. The guy who died was in power from the Nixon years. That was the Republican they voted for.
They voted for Sink in the last gubernatorial election.
They voted for Obama in the last 2presidential elections.

Do you have an honest bone in your body? Is there no shame?

So, fuckwad, again, you don't compare presidential election results per CD to congressional election results. You don't compare gubernatorial election results per CD to congressional election results. You compare CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS per CD to CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS in the same CD or corresponding area (due to redistricting). That's what the adults in the room do.

The other stuff is cosmetic and sometimes fun to compare, but has no real bearing on a local election, and a CD election IS a local election.

And Young stayed in office long after Nixon. Bet yer gonna go around saying that Nixon wasn't a Republican either.

Yepp, yer just as much a dick as I thought you were. No way you are a Rabbi, Rabbis don't act this way. That's the friendly way of saying **** you to you.

You lie and it's my fault.
There was one Republican who got elected over and over. That speaks to his personal popularity, not the leanings of the district. If you want to know how the district leans, look at other races. And in all those other races they voted Democrat.
Geez you are one stupid arrogant piece of shit, aren't you?

'Stupid' is descriptive enough for any dimocrap.

Not only did Jolly win in a District that went for the Liar In Chief in 2012, Sink outspent Jolly 3 to 1 in TV advertising.

dimocraps put a LOT of money into this one and they lost.

What that tells us is more important than just one seat in Congress.

It tells prospective dimocrap contributors that they may be throwing their money away. That they have no chance of holding on to the Senate or Capturing the House and that they would be better advised to hang on to their money and use it in 2016.

THAT is what can be taken from this particular election.

And as usual, I'm right.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Funny....Larry Sabato and other left leaning pundits picked the Democrat to win. A Democrat who outspent the Republican by a 3-1 margin. A Democrat who was well known in the State versus a nobody. But yeah...the election means nothing.

But you will notice, I didn't. In fact, in January, I was already writing that it is advantage GOP in this election. The demographics of the district are simply more favorable to the GOP, especially at the state and local level.

Gotta question for you. How can you explain why that district in particular went for Obama in both elections? Would that make that a swing district? In this case, it swung toward the Republican candidate.

Probably in 2012 it was because Romney and Ryan ran on ending Medicare. Jolly ran on increasing funding for it.

 

[Edgetho]

dimocraps lie, it's what they do.

It's pathological and they can't help it. They lie like a rabid dog drools.

Neither can help it but both need to be dealt with


Florida loss big blow to Democrats? 2014 hopes - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com

Florida’s 13th District is, in many ways, the archetype of the kind of seat Democrats need to win if they’re serious about erasing their 17-seat House deficit anytime soon. Its electorate is older, overwhelmingly white, and politically moderate — in other words, the kind of people who dominate many of the swing congressional districts across the country.

In fact, the district should have been one of the Democratic Party’s most winnable targets. Of the 37 GOP-held seats that the Cook Political Report ranks as the most vulnerable to Democratic takeover, only 11 are more Democratic-friendly than Florida’s 13th. The district has just a narrow GOP registration edge.

“If the Democrats can’t win with their former gubernatorial candidate with 100 percent name ID, where are they going to win?” asked Guy Harrison, a former National Republican Congressional Committee executive director. “When the Democrats look at their playing field, they don’t have too many better seats to target. They don’t have too much of a prayer for winning the majority.”

Some Democrats viewed the race as a template for how the party could win in purple-hued districts. Over the past two months, Sink rolled out an elaborate plan to win over the GOP and independent voters she’d need to take the district, airing ads in which she promised to “work across the aisle. … Bringing Republicans and Democrats together — that’s what I’ve always done, and that’s what I’ll do in Congress.”

But Jolly’s win shows just how politically treacherous the path is for Democrats running in such moderate-to-conservative areas. Rather than moving to the center, Jolly pushed to the right, painting himself as a foe of President Barack Obama and his Affordable Care Act — and presenting Sink as a staunch ally.

“She supports Obamacare. I don’t. I’m David Jolly, and I approve this message because [we] need someone to look out for our interests, not President Obama’s,” he said in one TV ad.

In the face of those kinds of attacks, Sink’s can’t-we-all-just-get-along message just didn’t cut it.

 

[The Rabbi]

So, fuckwad, again, you don't compare presidential election results per CD to congressional election results. You don't compare gubernatorial election results per CD to congressional election results. You compare CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS per CD to CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS in the same CD or corresponding area (due to redistricting). That's what the adults in the room do.

The other stuff is cosmetic and sometimes fun to compare, but has no real bearing on a local election, and a CD election IS a local election.

And Young stayed in office long after Nixon. Bet yer gonna go around saying that Nixon wasn't a Republican either.

Yepp, yer just as much a dick as I thought you were. No way you are a Rabbi, Rabbis don't act this way. That's the friendly way of saying **** you to you.

You lie and it's my fault.
There was one Republican who got elected over and over. That speaks to his personal popularity, not the leanings of the district. If you want to know how the district leans, look at other races. And in all those other races they voted Democrat.
Geez you are one stupid arrogant piece of shit, aren't you?

'Stupid' is descriptive enough for any dimocrap.

Not only did Jolly win in a District that went for the Liar In Chief in 2012, Sink outspent Jolly 3 to 1 in TV advertising.

dimocraps put a LOT of money into this one and they lost.

What that tells us is more important than just one seat in Congress.

It tells prospective dimocrap contributors that they may be throwing their money away. That they have no chance of holding on to the Senate or Capturing the House and that they would be better advised to hang on to their money and use it in 2016.

THAT is what can be taken from this particular election.

And as usual, I'm right.

Sink was an experienced candidate who had won that district in a race previously, well funded, and well supported at the national level.
Jolly was a no name running with a libertarian on the ballot.
And he still beat her.