Winston
Platinum Member

Economists warn Trump’s policies will trigger inflation
US president-elect won on claims he could rid of high prices yet many analysts think he will do the opposite
I have been pretty busy since election day, but today I stayed home and did some research.
I posted a couple of threads during the presidential race indicating that Trump's proposals were highly inflationary, but I didn't think it would start this quickly. Let's look at some of his priorities and how they will impact inflation. Let us start with making the Trump taxcuts permanent.

That proposal alone adds one trillion dollars a year to the deficit. Just to let you know, the deficit for the 2024 budget was projected at 1.8 trillion. That is more than a fifty percent increase, think that might be inflationary? Does anyone think there will be a one trillion dollar reduction in spending? Seriously?
Outside of cutting SNAP benefits, eliminating free lunch programs for millions of indigent children, eliminating aid to Ukraine, and eliminating the Department of Education, I don't see any real proposals to cut spending. And the later, well it is going to end up costing all of us through higher property and sales taxes.
Listening to Trump on the campaign trail, well he leads you to believe that the entire budget of the Department of Education is spent on the salaries of bureaucrats. That is just not the case. The federal government accounts for over ten percent of the funding of public schools, and in low-income and rural areas it is much higher. If that is eliminated it will have to be replaced, at least to some degree. That means you are going to pay for it through higher local and state taxes.
Then there are tariffs. I mean you are living in a fantasy world if you believe what Trump says, those foreign countries will pay the cost. It just doesn't work that way, it is basic Macroeconomics. Sure, it might motivate more people to "buy American", but then again, why should we need tariffs for that? What happened to patriotism? Walmart famously tried the concept, posting American made signs beside merchandise made in America. That went over like a turd in a punchbowl and was quickly eliminated. Nobody really cared, they wanted cheap. Well, those tariffs will take "cheap" off the table.
Then there is that mass deportation. Sounds good. Russia and Germany sure bud liked the idea before and during WWII. But that comes at a cost, and it severely cuts the labor force. And sorry, some jobs Americans are not going to do no matter how much they get paid. I mean around here there is a huge immigrant labor force working the fields. They drive Hummers and F-250's, obviously they are making good money. You are looking at food shortages for everything from tomatoes to leaf lettuce. That is going to drive prices up.
But anyways, like I said, it has already started. This morning the first thing I thought of was the rating agencies. I was like, damn, they need to make a statement. Warn of a downgrade if Trump's initiatives are carried out. Well damn, they have.
And mortgage rates, yep, done deal.

Mortgage rates surge higher on Trump victory, causing housing stocks to fall
Lennar, D.R. Horton and PulteGroup were all down Wednesday. Retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s were also lower.

I wish, I wish, I wish I were a fish. You got it Mr. Limpet, and it ain't going to be pretty.
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