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January 06, 2006
Sinking Feeling
My spider senses are twitching about Iran. I sense a disturbance in the force. Several reports, from different sources -- Strategic Forecasting, the Turkish press, and now RegimeChangeIran -- are all hinting at windows of opportunity that are closing: for the US or Israel to stop Iran's nuclear program, or for Iran to exploit the situation in Iraq to its advantage before democracy takes root.
Pundits are all worked up debating whether 2006 will be like 1994.
Perhaps a better comparison might be 1914. Things might get hairy awful fast in the mid-east. Iran is not just another country; it is an entire Persian civilization with a long history of conquest from Darius and Cyrus fighting the Greeks, to the Sasanians, the Safavids, and the modern state.
The prediction markets currently have a 36% chance of a US or Israeli airstrike on Iran by March of 07. I plan to keep a close eye on these numbers.
Here's what I expect in the next 12 months.
-There will be airstrikes upon Iranian facilities by either the US or Israel.
-There will be catastrophic, if not cataclysmic, terror attacks in various parts of the Middle East, sponsored by Iran or its proxies; The Gulf States, Jordan, Israel, and Iraq are potential targets.
I'm not going to make any definitive statements of causality. Either of the above two events may happen before the other. What happens after those two is anyone's guess. But I think they are both coming, and coming faster than we may all expect.
I have a bad feeling about this.
Please discuss.
UPDATE: Many assume that Iran would not overtly use terror or the deterrent effects of its new nukes to its own gain in the immediate future, thinking instead that things would settle into a "cold war" of sorts.
This represents a best-case and is foolhardy for planning purposes. As usual in strategy, Iran's advantage rests in its ability to exploit seams; at the moment there is quite a transitional seam in Israeli politics and therefore policy. If there were plans on the drawing board for an Israeli strike, they are being shelved for sure. We are about to encounter another seam via the US election as well, wherein the entire Congress temporarily becomes entranced by domestic concerns and local politics.
If Iran declares itself a nuclear power, the institutions, systems, policies and governments of the region and the world will not just snap into a new paradigm of a "cold war" with Iran, though in the longer term, that is certainly probable. Instead, from the moment Iran makes the announcement, or detonates a bomb, a new seam begins between the old policy regimes and the new. And there lies Iran's advantage. Much hay can be made while the capitals of the west are engaged in debate on a response.
I'm calling it like I see it.
OCA said:Question: why is it ok for an occupational force such as Israel to have nukes in the M.E. but not Iran? Tell me who of those two has stirred up more trouble in the past 60 years there?
Yeah, yeah I know...."but the Iranians are muslims and fanatics".....yeah like the Israelis aren't fanatical Jews.
Ahh if only we hadn't fucked up in 47 and given them this land, world would be a different place today.
rtwngAvngr said:Israel is our ally. Iran wants to destroy the west. Are you ignant.?
OCA said:Israel is our ally, well yes since we let them lead us around by the nose.
Umm I know this might be a bit out of your league but tell me, when what country was created did M.E. troubles begin?
rtwngAvngr said:You sound a lot like the president of Iran. How proud you must be.
OCA said:Excellent reply, guess you're out of factual rebuttals?
archangel said:I like both of you and both of you make valid points...however I must add that the problems in the Middle East started pre 1947...more along the lines of Arabian support for Hitlers war machine ie:Middle East oil reserves which 'Rommel the desert fox' needed and hence became a suiter to Islam and the jesture was returned....ie:support for the Reich! Just one mans opinion mind ya! :usa:
Said1 said:Let's face it Arch, they been messed up since, well forever.
archangel said:both made valid points...I'm sticking with my original comments addressing this!
