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July 6, 2007 No.1648
Possible Eruption of Violent Crisis in Lebanon After July 15
In the past few days, Arab and Iranian media reports have pointed to the possibility that Lebanon's current political crisis may become a violent conflict after July 15, 2007.
It should be noted that certain international events concerning Lebanon and Syria are expected in mid-July, specifically:
1. The U.N. Security Council session scheduled for July 16, 2007, which is to discuss a report by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon on the progress in the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701. This discussion will be devoted in part to the report submitted by a delegation sent by Ki-Moon to the Syria-Lebanon border to assess border supervision. According to the London daily Al-Hayat, the delegation's recommendations included the stationing of international experts in border control to aid Lebanon's security apparatuses in monitoring the Syria-Lebanon border. [1]
2. Between July 15 and 17, 2007, the submission of another report to the U.N. Security Council, by the head of the International Investigation Commission into the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri, Serge Brammertz.
The following are excerpts from these Arab and Iranian media reports:
Reports of Syria Instructing its Citizens to Leave Lebanon by July 15
...
Syria and Iran should not underestimate the Israeli response to chaos in southern Lebanon and further rocket attacks on Israel. Next time Syria and Iran sponsor Hezbollah attacks on Israel, the response may not be directed exclusively toward Lebanon.On the heels of Hamas success? It would make sense, considering how Iraq is going-just listen to Zawahiri diatribe from the other day:
http://www.memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=SD164807
Syria and Iran should not underestimate the Israeli response to chaos in southern Lebanon and further rocket attacks on Israel. Next time Syria and Iran sponsor Hezbollah attacks on Israel, the response may not be directed exclusively toward Lebanon.
