Military Times Poll...............
Published:
Dec. 31, 2007
Politics, Civilians and Policy
1) How would you describe your political views?
Very conservative
8.8%
Conservative
37%
Moderate
38.7%
Liberal
7%
Very liberal
1.4%
Decline to answer
7.1%
January 13, 2009
Nathaniel Frank, Senior Research Fellow
MILITARY TIMES POLL FLAWED
Military Times acknowledges that its survey is not based on a random sample of military personnel. What is not explained, however, is how the non-random sampling may bias responses.
Dr. Gates as well as Palm researchers looked closely at the Times's raw data and found that in at least two important areas the Military Times pool of respondents looks different from the actual military: gender and partisan identification. For example, among the Times's 1,947 active-duty respondents, only 10 percent were women, compared to 15 percent of the actual military;
among enlisted personnel, only 22.6 percent of the TimesÂ’s respondents were independents, compared to 66 percent of enlisted personnel in the Army.
So where did this information come from?
It says where it came from right in the pull quote, but you can find out why the Military times survey is biased just about anywhere.
Some troops see Obama as the best bet - Los Angeles Times
The Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks political donations, said that through 2007, Democrats received 40% of the $804,000 in contributions from uniformed service members, up from 18% in 2000. The center said that by the end of August 2008, Obama had received more money from military donors with overseas addresses -- $74,650 compared with $16,600 for McCain -- as well as from employees of the uniformed branches: $340,400 compared with $321,500.
The most comprehensive look at the military vote is an annual survey by the privately owned Military Times newspaper, which in a voluntary poll of 4,300 subscribers in September found overwhelming support for McCain, 68%, compared with 23% for Obama.
But Feaver noted that the Military Times surveys tend to target older officers, who are far more conservative than younger enlisted personnel.
It is a factor that seemed clear Wednesday in east Baghdad, where six of seven soldiers at a base interviewed at random said they backed Obama.
Aaron Belkin, a University of California political science professor who studies military attitudes, said the willingness of U.S. troops in Baghdad to speak openly Wednesday about their preferences for Obama was in itself a shift.
"There is a long-standing norm among the troops that if you're a liberal or a Democrat, you need to stay in the closet about that," Belkin said. "The fact that you're seeing service members openly discussing their support for Obama represents a significant change in military culture."
Though
young enlistees appear to have similar voting patterns to their college-bound peers, Feaver said, the military as a whole still tends to lean toward the Republican Party.
The American Conservative The Shifting Military Vote
There are small signs, however, that six years at war, under an ill-defined, mismanaged foreign policy that relies on the constant, indefinite rotation of less than one-half percent of the nationÂ’s total population has altered, however subtly, the Republican PartyÂ’s grip on the military voting culture.
For one, as of August, Barack Obama was clobbering John McCain in donations from active duty military — in fact, men and women serving abroad gave Obama nearly six times more than his opponent, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Republican Ron Paul did even better than McCain with such donations — leading one to wonder how two men who had opposed the war were generating more enthusiasm among soldiers than the man whose presidential campaign had been built around his time as a POW in Vietnam and as a singular champion of the 2007 Surge into Baghdad.
This is perhaps not entirely suprising — a poll taken almost a year ago found that only 37 percent of military and their families approved of President Bush’s policy in Iraq, a huge turnaround from just two years before, when twice as many had sided with the President on the war.
To be fair, there have been at least two stabs at assessing this sleeping giant since early summer. Gallup found that veterans still associate themselves more with the Republican Party in numbers similar to 2004, when they voted for George Bush over John Kerry, 57 to 41 percent (Gallup notes this is a group that McCain and the Republicans already fare well with — older white males). Veterans told Gallup they are supporting McCain over Obama, 56 to 34 percent. Furthermore, a Military Times poll in early October found that among present and former subscribers to the Military Times‘ magazines, the majority were going strong for McCain over Obama, 66 to 25 percent.
But other things emerged from these studies. Overall, according to one comparison of previous Military Times surveys, GOP affiliation among senior members of the military — the most typically Republican block — had actually declined from over 60 percent in 2003 to 47 percent in 2007 (there was not a corresponding increase for the Democrats, however).
Despite McCainÂ’s obvious advantage in this poll, it still represents a 10 percent increase for the Democrat
(John Kerry had only scored 15 percent of the vote among Military Times respondents in 2004). [Kerry scored 41% of the military vote in the election] Sure, surveys suggest as the number of women and minorities have increased in the active duty, Democratic support has been buoyed. But thatÂ’s not the only reason for the slight uptick among the military for Obama.
“This indicates that the increased support for the Democratic presidential candidate among members of the Army is due to both a shift of the Army’s traditional voting block away from the Republican Party as well as an infusion of new, predominantly minority voters into the Democratic column,” said Jeremy Dempsey, author and Army infantryman, who points out that of the active duty respondents who shifted to Obama in the recent Military Times poll, 95 percent were male and 55 percent white.