There are a lot of factors you're not considering here, starting with the state of the Republican Party. Lara Trump closed all of the outreach offices, and fired all staff which refused to say the 2020 election wasn't stolen. They have nobody working on the ground, knocking on doors or getting out the vote.
Many of the State Parties in swing states have been bankrupted by endless court challenges to both the 2020 election and the 2022 elections - all of which they've lost. Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvannia, Nevada. They have no money for down ballot races, or staff.
This is the first election which will be decided by Gen X and Z. Boomers are no longer the majority of voters. People who have grown up with student debt, having mass shooter drills, and who are in their child bearing years. They NEED access to reproductive health care. Polling companies tend not to be calling them, because they're new voters.
20% of Republican voters voted for Nicki Haley in the primaries, months after she dropped out. They got in their cars, drove to the polling station, to vote for someone they knew wasn't running.
There were 8 million more women voters than men in 2022. That number is a LOT bigger now. MEN continue to under estimate how pissed those women truly are. And they are not voting for the Republicans who refuse to listen when they tell them they're KILLING women.