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Political Trouble Ahead For Jacques Chirac?
Meet Nicholas Sarkozy.
He just may be the heir apparent to the position Jacques Chirac has held for roughly a decade now, President of France. Sarkozy, who was once Chirac's finance minister, now has his eye on the prize.
Financial Times reports:
Nicolas Sarkozy, France's most popular rightwing politician, has indicated that he will fight for the presidency in 2007 even if it means running against Jacques Chirac, the incumbent who belongs to the same party.
A recent poll puts Sarkozy ahead of Chirac:
...27 percent of the voters support Chirac, whereas 42 percent support Sarkozy and 15 would prefer another candidate.
Much of Chirac's fate depends on the upcoming (May 29, 2005) French referendum on the European Union Constitution, which may indeed be more of a referendum on a decade of government-by-Chirac.
Chirac has had a tough sell on the EU Constitution. In a recent televised debate, the French public rejected Chirac's arguments for approving the Constitution:
...39 percent of respondents found him convincing....
Opponents to the EU Constitution are growing in number, with 56 percent of those surveyed saying they would vote against the referendum, showed a CSA poll conducted before the TV debate and published in today's Le Parisien. That represented a gain of 1 percentage point. Support for the Constitution dropped 1 point to 44 percent, the survey showed.
Indeed, The Guardian explains:
Even with a handpicked audience of 80 young people and celebrity hosts rather than political heavyweights he struggled to make a convincing case.
The French referendum could have far-reaching consequences in global financial markets, as Bloomberg notes:
More than a dozen other surveys in the past month have shown that most French oppose adopting the Constitution, something analysts expect would weaken the euro against the dollar and other currencies.
Those who believe the dollar is in a state of crisis ought to be rooting hard for the French to reject the EU Constitution.
What is most peculiar about French disapproval of the EU Constitution is France's historical drive for European integration. The European Union has all along been France's baby, but the French people seem to be suffering from a sort of post-partum depression, neglecting its own flesh and blood.
The Economist explains more on France's intimate relationship with the EU:
FRANCE was one of the founder members of the European Union. It is half of the Franco-German motor that has historically driven European integration. The administrative culture of Brussels is heavily French-influenced, and the EUs biggest single chunk of spending, the common agricultural policy, is a huge gift to France. Jacques Delors, the most successful of all presidents of the European Commission, was a Frenchman. So was the president of the convention that wrote the EUs draft constitutional treaty, finalised last year.
So, is French skepticism really about the EU Constitution, or about Chirac? Some of the lack of support for European integration in France is driven by far-left and far-right groups who oppose the draft because its failure would embarrass Chirac and offer an opportunity for political gain. But opposition to the European Union draft constitution is far from a fringe pastime for political hacks.
The Economist:
...there are signs that Mr Chirac is a busted flush: only one in three French trust him, according to polls. Referendums are often used across Europe to give unpopular governments a kicking.
The Christian Science Monitor explains that France is not the only country where the EU is facing an uphill battle:
Serious skepticism over the document's implications is brewing in as many as nine of the 25 European Union countries. The most significant is France, which holds a referendum to accept or reject the constitution on May 29. A stunning 11 opinion polls in the past month all indicate a majority will say "non." The Dutch, who will vote June 1, also look as if they'll spurn it; same for the biggest Euro-skeptics of them all, the British.
All EU countries must ratify the constitution for it to take effect, and what a blow to the growing unity drive a French snub would be.
A rejection by the French, Dutch, and British would be more than a mere setback for the EU, it might derail the integration train for quite some time.
France's International Herald Tribune explains that, if the French reject the EU Constitution, which is highly probable at this point, it "would effectively be dead, and there would be no attempt to resurrect it in the foreseeable future."
Sarkozy, AMERICAPHILE, ANTI-SOCIALIST, ANTI-SNOOTINESS?
And this is where Nicholas Sarkozy comes in. Time profiled him late last year, noting that his agenda would include:
...lower taxes, flexible labor markets, more freedom for innovation and enterprise, more equality for minorities....
"France not only can reform, it's waiting for it."
Not only that, but Sarkozy, unlike Chirac, is not reflexively hostile to America, and, as the Telegraph notes, Sarkozy would offer a truly clean slate for relations between France and the United States:
M Sarkozy adores America and disapproved of M Chirac's handling of the Iraq conflict.
Indeed, Sarkozy was critical of Chirac for his obstructionism and duplicity in the lead-up to the Iraq war; while the American press focused on President Bush's "reckless unilateralism," Sarkozy dared to offer an alternative version of events, one in which Chirac was on a misguided mission to derail the American "hyperpower" and convince the entire world to hate America.
Sarkozy has hammered France's unique brand of socialism, arguing recently that the "French social model" is actually a model for what not to do:
In a speech in southern France, Mr Sarkozy said that with a 10 per cent unemployment rate France should stop saying its system worked better than that of others. "In 20 years both the left and the right have doubled the credits to combat unemployment but we have not produced one fewer unemployed person," he said.
Is Sarkozy France's ticket to regained relevance? Will a failed referendum on the European Union Constitution in France precipitate Chirac's early resignation?
Time will tell.
One thing is for certain: a "non" vote on May 29 would most certainly shake up French, European, and global politics; it would also send major ripples through the global economy.
Posted by Will Franklin · 16 April 2005 04:24 PM
